Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

hS

(Crossed with Nog and Nilp)

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Add in some curmudgeonly grumbling about having tonsuffer through it, and you've basically got my Day 1 feelings.

Re: Nilp's NW analysis, I think that overall, the stronger option, as he lays it out, is the second--but what isn't being mentioned in it is whether what Nog just referred to a triple-bluffing element would cancel that out. In other words, the value to zigging when expected to zag.

I think the risk/reward value to a Day 1 NW kill is higher than any other permutation for the wolves, so I don't really expect it--but even that could tell us something about the personality of the wolves (once we get deep enough in the game to get a sense of the personalities still standing).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

What daytime actions might those be?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)...

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)...

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

I would say almost assuredly yes to that last.