Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Basically, I agree that behaviour can be analyzed, but I disagree that it can be done scientifically in the absence of any context.
...
But during Day 1? It's darts on a dartboard for all a villager could see. You can't see any pattern during its first step.

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

I think we're stuck with what the great Númenorian philosophers called abductive reasoning or inference, where we start from observations and then reason for the most likely conclusion - in a good case the results are plausible enough to act on, but they will never verify our conclusions.

I think Form is correct in pointing out the lack of "baseline" - or generally lack of data on Day1, but I'd not deduce from that a total futility of Day1 - even on Day1 itself.

We'll have ample time to get the ball rolling toDay.


EDIT: X'd with a bunch

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And I think speculating about what the Wolves' plans might be with a special role is a productive use of Day 1: it's hypothesis rather than analysis, but it lays the groundwork to be tested over toDay's votes and toNight's kill. The obvious guess for a wild wolfpack is that they orchestrate the NW's death toDay, giving themselves cover and unleashing him/her/them/it early. A more cautious wolfpack strikes me as wanting to avoid wasting a vote/life this early.

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

In the spirit of pushing, then: how does telling the wolves exactly what we expect them to act like help us rather than them?

Speculate ourselves, yes, absolutely - but you seem to be talking about sharing all that speculation. If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

hS

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

hS

(Crossed with Nog and Nilp)

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Add in some curmudgeonly grumbling about having tonsuffer through it, and you've basically got my Day 1 feelings.

Re: Nilp's NW analysis, I think that overall, the stronger option, as he lays it out, is the second--but what isn't being mentioned in it is whether what Nog just referred to a triple-bluffing element would cancel that out. In other words, the value to zigging when expected to zag.

I think the risk/reward value to a Day 1 NW kill is higher than any other permutation for the wolves, so I don't really expect it--but even that could tell us something about the personality of the wolves (once we get deep enough in the game to get a sense of the personalities still standing).

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Unlike the Wolves, we don't get to talk amongst ourselves when they're not listening! And someone is going to die toDay (and toNight).

What's the point of having thoughts about lupine behaviour going to be if I'm lynched toDay or murdered toNight if I keep them to myself?

What's more, the Wolves had to coordinate their Daytime actions at Night. Right now, they CAN'T coordinate. If we cotton on to their prearranged plan, then they have to scramble: either follow the original plan or each make their own in-the-moment decisions. Either could be telling.

What daytime actions might those be?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

If we all agree that 'the wolves are likely to do X, so we'll be able to spot them', they, uh... won't do X!

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)...

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Which would actually be quite a nice way to disarm them from their best weapons (well, prevent them from using their best tactics)...

Sadly there's a thing called double-bluffing (and triple, and quadruple etc.) quite familiar to all Werewolf-players.


But yes, with not much else to discuss at the moment, I'd be glad to hear people's views on the issue of Wolves willing to unleash the NW as early as possible vs. them willing to keep their numbers at maximum as long as possible. I mean winning clearly is easier the latter way, but the chance to be able to disrupt gifteds must be somewhat alluring. Especially if bussing other wolves would be as succesful it was in the last game.

So should we start fex. from a hypothesis that if the NW is lynched early on, the chance of there being other wolves included is higher than "normal"?


EDIT: X'd with Form x 2

I would say almost assuredly yes to that last.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I don't see why there would be only two options: being able to make scientific analysis or the whole thing being as good as nothing. Actually, I'd say, both of those options are fictious or non-existent. There is no way to make a scientific analysis with such an important part of data or evidence lacking, but neither is it never only just random darts on a dartboard.

Well, it's certainly not a binary choice in actual fact: but as two ends of a continuum, things lean on Day 1 far more to the the good as nothing end.

That's not saying no one should post or try--but if we catch a Wolf, let's not pretend that it was anything other than dumb luck! And if it isn't luck, it's far more likely to be manipulation by the Wolves, who are the only ones who know anyone's role, than cleverness by the Village.

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Which actually does give me a potential 3rd "Wolf Plan": deliberately sacrificing one of their NON-NW members. It would be both bolder and more cunning than killing off the NW, but it would also provide far better cover AND puts someone into the Dead thread early when one vote messing with the Medium's vote is of greater value.

That's a good one! You're proving against your explicit points by your deeds Form. I think you are already doing something useful.

Originally Posted by Suicidal Tendencies

the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.

If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I read the rules correctly, there is no choice like that. The NW will continue discussing with her mates from beyond the grave. So dying only opens the weapon for her and takes away nothing (but lowers the lycan numbers by one).

That's a negative.

Werewolves (4)- choose 1 person every night to kill until the number of villagers equals their own. They can communicate privately during the NIGHT phase. Living wolves can not privately communicate with dead wolves, or vice versa. [The Rules, emphasis mine]

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilp

That's a negative.

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

In the spirit of later Days... could be a non-wolf getting confused by the bit in the rules saying that all dead wolves can communicate OR a Wolf laying down some hopeful misdirection. On the basis of no info at all, I lean to toward the former.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Because he's an Ordo and that part of the rule book doesn't apply to him.

I mean, if I was going to write 'If I read the rules correctly', I'd at least glance at them to see what it was I was claiming to have read correctly. (Not sure if Nog's was a present or past tense 'read'; I assumed the former at first, but it seems you might be assuming the latter.) If he didn't, it would be nice to hear why not.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

On the other hand, I'm a nasty carnivore with suicidal tendencies and should therefore read those parts more carefully.

(People are right; you've got great cover if you're a wolf.)

hS

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by hS

I mean, if I was going to write 'If I read the rules correctly', I'd at least glance at them to see what it was I was claiming to have read correctly.

I checked it then just because I had the feeling Nilp claimed it wrong. I checked it now once more. Well, I see...

Originally Posted by The Rules

-Other dead werewolves can communicate privately with the NW during the NIGHT phase to help determine a victim (or that there is no victim that night)

Just somehow managed to miss / ignore that quite important word "dead" from there... twice (when I read the rules before the game and when checking Nilp's claim).

[Rikae]

Seems like a strange discussion to be having on the heels of a game where a seer, a cobbler, and a seer-hinting wolf were all leaving intentional trails on Day 1 and the latter two attracted attention by doing so (albeit confused attention).

Is it ever scientific? Is it scientific late in the game when people track down wolves by cross-referenckng voter, death & suspicion lists? Context still matters. There's still a qualitative element to it, looking at posts, tone, hints, interactions. All that's happening from day 1: it's impossible to post without leaving a trail of some kind, and not posting long enough is evidence, too. Sounds silly, but without day 1 there is no day 2. You'd have a kill with no leads, essentially, just a smaller village with nothing to go on.

The baseline is the sum of all that player's past behavior, the other players, the entire history of barrowdowns werewolf, the platonic ideal of a post, meta stuff (even if we try to avoid it it flavors banter) etc. For instance, "Nilp always Nilps" or "Rikae firmly believes you can catch wolves by analyzing posts".

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Was about to say the same. The rules state at least three times that the Dead wolves can't talk to the Living. They're pretty clear.

So, Nog, how did you misread that?

hS

Very "a-HA!" of you. Hmm.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Re: suicidal Nightmare Wolf

Both normal and dream-haunting baddies would of course operate better with more information about the village (i.e., the Gifteds) but while normal Wolves can miss on a Gifted and still advance their goal (of eliminating the village), the nightlife lycan needs the information a lot more because using their power on an Ordo is a waste.

If I were a Nightmare Wolf, I basically have two possible avenues of action:

1. Get killed as soon as possible to have more chances to use my powers, and hopefully to reduce any trace of connexion with my fellow carnivores. But I'd lose access to their analyses that would be give me better chance to uses my abilities on the right targets.
2. Just play like a normal canine, have a chance to influence the village by DAY and talk to my fellows at NIGHT, so if I do end up on the chopping block I have a better chance of ruining some Gifted's NIGHT. On the other hand, I might end up leaving behind all sorts of clues to my fellows, but that's also a problem in normal games.

So, ignoring the risks one would incur in any other game anyway, the Nightmare Wolf would have to consider whether using their abilities earlier is worth losing access to their packmates' minds.