Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

When I first saw the thread I was like "yikes, three pages", but there was surprisingly little to go on. Come on guys, why haven't you solved Day1 while I was away?

Sally and I weren't able to flood the thread with sweet nothings, sadly.

[Nogrod]

I meant just to check whether my gut feeling - that hS feels a bit over-eager to sound like one who has only the best of the village in mind - had actually any basis in the posting. And well, the number of these quotes kind of got a little out of hand, but I think they do confirm the feeling.

Originally Posted by hS

So yes, I still think it's possible to catch a wolf by their behaviour even on Day One. Forget baselines, and look at what people are doing. If someone is (say) trying to claim that we can't do anything useful today, whose ends does that serve?

My question to Legate, for instance, was a test to see if his 'carefree' remark could be a lead-in to arguing that 'X player seems to be carefree, they must be a wolf!'. I wasn't looking for a specific response to indicate This Is A Wolf (/Innocent), obviously - I was just seeing if something popped. My feeling is that his answer didn't lean either way - but it could have.

If we don't push the wolves, they won't slip up. And without knowing who the wolves are, I say that means we push generally and see what moves.

Originally Posted by hS

Now this is a good point, and just the sort of response to a push that sounds more innocent than lupine. Now I have some sort of read on you. It may be wrong, but that goes for any Day.

Pushing people into firmly stating their thoughts also means the village has the ability to look back and see whether our actions match the way we claim to be thinking. Maybe not useful on Day One, but the evidence stays visible.

Originally Posted by hS

Distracted everyone by discussing past and future games rather than the one we're in?

hS, pushing

Originally Posted by hS

I think an information-free Day One is a nice bonus for the wolves, and that Downers are easily sidetracked into producing one, so if the wolves pick their timing there's not much risk to them.

Originally Posted by hS

I do think how you choose to respond could be telling. I was also hoping Kath might speak up again, to give me a bit more information about how she's thinking.

Originally Posted by hS

I very nearly posted something like 'I think I see a wolf plot forming, I'll say what it is if it develops further', but decided that would be, uh, dumb.

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

It does raise my eyebrows a little. So if I'd have to vote right now, I'd consider voting for hS. I do hope we get something better than that though to base our votes.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean all innocent people wish to aid in catching the wolves, but why overdo underlining that one is doing it? Where comes the need to assure everyone, that I am doing good, reasonable and worthwhile stuff, on Day1?

You'd never do that yourself, would you?
TBF, Hui does tend to overdo the 'responsible innocent' routine even when he is one, so I wouldn't hold that alone against him.



Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.

[Thinlómien]

Ok Shasta said it first but what about "Pitchwife is the cobbler"?

I mean that's the only way I'm reading this nonsense that started sounding like valid concern over people jumping on the easy target and then spiraled into wilfully giving people headache:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Another thing. It strikes me that suspecting Nilp for double-bluffing is terribly easy (because he totally would), as is defending him because 'he'd do that no matter what he is' (because he totally would). Also any vote for him on the grounds that he wants to be lynched is so easy it's not even funny, so if anybody would actually go there... I was going to say it would be another point against them, but it would be so blatantly no-trail that it would actually not be no-trail at all, if you get what I'm saying.

edit: xed with S&S

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Ok Shasta said it first but what about "Pitchwife is the cobbler"?

I mean that's the only way I'm reading this nonsense that started sounding like valid concern over people jumping on the easy target and then spiraled into wilfully giving people headache:




edit: xed with S&S

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

Yes I agree that was a deliberate choice of words. Could be a wolf signaling to the cobbler too, though, maybe expecting someone to continue the banter and identify themselves that way? Or perhaps a very wily ordo trying to mislead the wolves but I think Occam's razor might have something to say about that theory.

[Huinesoron]

Okay. I'm going to put aside for now the people I mostly think look dodgy for their comments on me (mostly Kath and Nog, I think) ; I'm clearly very easy to misunderstand, so I'd need more to go on there. (Kath's chat with Nilp all looks very small from this distant time.) I'm also going to hold off on Nilp until I can get more of a feel for him.

Formendacil still looks innocentish. Rikae... I think I might just like their post style, but it looks pretty innocent to me. Lottie I at least don't get wolf vibes off.

Sally, well, there's not much to say yet. Macalaure's one post (that I can see) is low on content for being so far into the day (#75), so could be dodgy. Shasta has posted a lot, on a lot of subjects; I feel like they're contributing rather than trying to muddy things, but it is just a feel.

Blind Guardian has made... one post? All I remember is it felt like a newer player, and I'm out of time to hunt (can someone tell me how to pull up an individual player's posts?). Brinn hasn't posted much, but hasn't been using that to focus on just one topic (I had in my head that they were just talking about cobblers, so I looked back). Should have done this alphabetically... Legate looks okay, Greenie I remember something twigged early on but I don't know what.

Um, who have I missed? Lommy! I... can't remember what Lommy has said, but I don't remember flagging anything. And I think that only leaves Pitch and 'fish leather'.

Which seems like a really weird leap to make, and I don't see anyone reassuring Lommy that yes, 'fish leather' is a known WW concept. So he looks likely to be doing something Cobbler related. But would an actual cobbler just come out and say it?

Okay, checking cross-posts: so fish leather is a thing, Shasta has voted for me, Rikae and Legate disagree with me on thinking Formendacil innocent, and
Lommy and Lottie both strongly disagree with his suggestion he might unvote. But I still stand by my read from earlier.

... or I did, until #145. Good grief. Yes, we're statistically more likely to kill an innocent toDay - that's because the wolves haven't had time to whittle us down yet! I've seen this argument before, and it's never sounded good.

For my earlier suspicions, for my known dodgy people-reading abilities, and most especially for not simply talking about unvoting in frustration, but as a plan, I vote:

++Formendacil

(And now to bed/and now to bed!)

hS

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Mine may have looked as though it were a jest, but I really do currently think that post of Pitch's I quoted could easily be a "don't kill me!" hint to the wolves. Why ask if fish leather would make good boots, otherwise?

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

OK, in case I haven't made it clear in my reply to Rikae above: Formy posted some early banter about talking to the wolves and finding out what they want, Lottie called it fishy, and I tried to point out that it could have been cobbler signalling to wolves: fishy -> fish leather -> boots = cobbler. Apparently too metaphoric.

Fair enough. Also I see Shasta and Rikae already found another cobbler. (Also agreed, in retrospect, about your point about Form. Are we sure we don't have four cobblers and one wolf instead of four wolves and one cobbler? )

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, now I'm thinking Form may be a Cobbler for the no-vote suggestion.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay. Maybe it's a language issue (and it could be on my part as well), but someone willing to make people think the wolves are mainly on the quiet side of the village might formulate the message thusly?

It wasn't supposed to be a "A leads to B" thing, I was thinking along the lines that it's been quiet overall, and perhaps if there was nothing big to stir some massive loud debate (provoked by a Cobbler), then the WWs were also lying low. It was more like the observation of current state of things.

Anyways... all Day nothing, now million posts... can't answer anything I wanted and gotta vote.

EDIT: x-ed with some

[Rikae]

Pitch - could be cobblerish indeed, not really getting wolfish - casting light cobbler-suspicion on Form, discourages votes for Nilp
Hui - Lottie's post described other people more than Hui, so for him to read it that way looks an awful lot like a guilty conscience
Form - keeping an eye on him, but his explanations when pressed do tend to look more innocent
Nilp - asks to be lynched, which would make me think he was at the very least not gifted and not too risky a lynch, except, being Nilp, he'd kind of have to do this even if he was. Painted himself into a corner.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

You'd never do that yourself, would you?

Me? Oh, never!