Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Game Thread

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Speaking of votes... I have no idea how to vote. I have nothing that resembles a suspicion, and I haven't played at all recently enough for anyone be triggering "ZZ feels off" sensations. Given the odds and given that it's a legitimately empowered voting option, I think I might join Sally...

For some clarification on a "No vote."

It doesn't count towards the tally/not lynching someone. With mandatory voting I have it there as an option so no one is under threat of potential mod-firing for not voting. Sort of like an official vote, but not one that counts towards a tally/no lynch. That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

1 hour +5 minutes until DL

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For some clarification on a "No vote."

It doesn't count towards the tally/not lynching someone. With mandatory voting I have it there as an option so no one is under threat of potential mod-firing for not voting. Sort of like an official vote, but not one that counts towards a tally/no lynch. That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

1 hour +5 minutes until DL

I sense a moderatorly objection to the entire village choosing to not vote, but not an actual statement that such a tactic would be forbidden.

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).

Of course, now that I think it through, you'd have to have the entire village onboard for this to work as a STRATEGY, and that'd be herding cats (especially this late in the day).

Doesn't help me decide where to vote though...

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).

Isn't that true of about every D1 in WW history ever? And if we were all to follow your 'strategy', where would that leave us toMorrow?

[Loslote]

It's too late for a no vote toDay, anyway. Votes have been cast. Even if everyone else in the village abstains, we would still have 1 Nilp and 1 Huin, and one of them would die.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Loslote

It's too late for a no vote toDay, anyway. Votes have been cast. Even if everyone else in the village abstains, we would still have 1 Nilp and 1 Huin, and one of them would die.

And that would be me.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I don't understand the usage of "risky" here. Brinn, explain?

I mean it would be risky for the wolves to bus a packmate as early as Day 1. Of course it's not impossible.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't think "playing differently than recent wolf-self" is that much of an indicator of innocence.

I agree, it does not. But it is also not an indicator of guilt. Hui's change in play style makes me think better of him for at least toDay when there's not much else to go on. I just don't get suspicious vibes of him right now.

Okay, and now I see that Hui started his post with calling Formy innocentish and ended it by voting him...so maybe I should rethink that.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1.

Yes.

But paraphrasing Lottie: Washing your hands from that procedure is actually both helping the wolves to decide who is lynched (as there is going to be a lynch anyway) and denying everyone else your own input to be analyzed.

[Blind Guardian]

Originally Posted by Formy

Has anyone tried TALKING to the wolves? We could see what their demands are and resolve this amicably. Boro's death is a tragedy, but we don't have to die. Surely, some compromise is available!

Originally Posted by Formy

Well, violence is never the answer! And turning to it before we've even attempted diplomacy is morally repugnant. Why is it that the very first thing a village would think about is killing? I mean, if this has happened 114 times before, that'd be one thing...

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I sense a moderatorly objection to the entire village choosing to not vote, but not an actual statement that such a tactic would be forbidden.

I will, of course, follow to rules, but if not forbidden, my thinking is thus: 1/4 of the village is wolves, 1/3 evil if you count cobblers. We are statistically twice therefore as likely to kill an Innocent on Day 1. (I don't know if anyone has a database of WW history to prove me right or wrong handy).

Of course, now that I think it through, you'd have to have the entire village onboard for this to work as a STRATEGY, and that'd be herding cats (especially this late in the day).

Doesn't help me decide where to vote though...

++Formendacil for wanting to TALK to the Wolves and wanting us to not vote.

I hope I'm doing this right. My phone is dying. I'll see you guys toMorrow.

X'ed with people and also the site didn't load. Fixing stuff.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

That is a villager will be lynched no matter how many ++No vote.

What if we all abstain and have a nice picnic and a bonfire? Mac and I have S'mores fixings we're happy to share!

Oh yeah ... werewolves.

[Thinlómien]

The no-lynch debate, Form? Really? I have no desire to fight that windmill again but I'm juts gonna say 1) we've got to try to lynch the wolves because they're killing us every Night and 2) how boring would the game be if we never voted (wouldn't we be trapped in your nightmare, a perpetual Day1 )?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Also, if he makes himself suspicious by anything else than his usual suicidal behaviour (such as the use of boots that Rikae picked up), that's fair game.

What about the joke about Nogrod being a confused ordo and himself being a werewolf carefully studying the rules that rang just a bit too honest to be just a joke? That sounded pretty wolfy to me - or possibly something the chaotic type cobbler would say for funsies.

Agreed with Nogrod re: Legate's point about wolf and cobbler quietness correlating not making any sense.


edit: xed with #150 and onwards

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The no-lynch debate, Form? Really? I have no desire to fight that windmill again but I'm juts gonna say 1) we've got to try to lynch the wolves because they're killing us every Night and 2) how boring would the game be if we never voted (wouldn't we be trapped in your nightmare, a perpetual Day1 )?

What about the joke about Nogrod being a confused ordo and himself being a werewolf carefully studying the rules that rang just a bit too honest to be just a joke? That sounded pretty wolfy to me - or possibly something the chaotic type cobbler would say for funsies.

Well, for what it's worth, Nog's argument actually rings true to me... because I'm am ordo and I did have to reread the rules immediately pregame.

Obviously, it would be boring if EVERY game had a Day 1 No-Vote. That's why Mods make rules to the contrary and THAT is why I'm knee deep in apparently being named the village cobbler: because I have to play with a rule I don't know (or remember--I have played few WW games this past half dozen years).

I am mildly tempted to do it anyway, because once you've floated an idea into the world and had it attacked, what is more human than hunkering down and admitting no quarter? But the still small voice protests this won't help the village (mostly because *I* will die, the sole Innocent I know).

But, on the other hand... I have no alternative plan and my newfound enjoyment of WWing again will not be entirely squelched if I open the Dead Thread...

It's literally Nilp or no one as my vote... and Nilp deserves to live if only to thwart his suicidal tendencies.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, a very quick one, because I see posts appearing as I write... however:

A Little Green - nothing suspicious thus far, sensible posts
Blind Guardian - very easy posting with the "I'm jumping on Kath's vote and just adding one of my own to it". Hoping to see more from them, might get a better picture after an actual vote.
Brinniel - only a few posts, nothing that stood out, aside from that she also seemed to discuss some of the WW tactics in a manner that made me wonder whether she had discussed it at Night with someone, but that's about it.
Formendacil - see above. Probably made me wary the most, but I would very much like to see some more posting from him to make a more three-dimensional picture.
Huinesoron - like I said, as of now, the fact that he's posting much more inquisitively than in the previous game seems more like an indicator of innocence to me, even though I acknowledge the possibility of otherwise.
Kath - also see what I said in my post above - posts sensibly, I guess I will just watch her more closely.
Loslote - I am not sure what to make of her "let's not lynch a Wolf" suggestion, because, I don't think even a Wolf would suggest that. A Cobbler might, perhaps.
Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
Nogrod - I see he's compensating on not being able to talk about Kant and Marx in the previous game, but to be fair, I also, kind of, expected him to be more... controversial, perhaps, or inquisitive. (However I see this may be changing as we speak.)
Nilp - well, as I said above: the evidence is inconclusive and it could be anything. Not even the shoes at posts that Rikae pointed out seem to be in any reasonable order. It is kind of a setback that to get some read of him grounded in something more relevant, one would have to wait for his vote on Day 2. I will probably reserve my judgment for toDay to get a better read of him in the future.
Pitchwife - actually he seems to be poking around a lot too. I agree that his talk about fishskin shoes might be a Cobbler signal, otherwise he seems a bit all over the place. I'm also wary there.
Rikae - generally seems like their normal self.
sally - okay, I see that toDay wasn't seemingly the best Day, I hope she can participate in the future, so get better, sally!

But I will use this as opportunity of seeing a no-vote to say that I disapprove of no-votes and likely will crack down on anyone who does that. I can understand in this one case (and I would add "and it being Day 1" - but then I can already see more people doing it "because Day 1s are useless yadda yadda" and THAT is still the worst thing people can do, whatever their role - votes are here to give information!) But for anyone who's healthy and all, please, vote.

Shastanis Althreduin - I like his posting and actually agree on many of his points. Pretty good for now.
Thinlómien - overall innocent Lommy vibes here, nothing special.

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!

EDIT: x-ed with a million again