Tol-in-Gaurhoth CXV: On the Borders of Mirkwood - Dead Thread

[Blind Guardian]

Edit: image didn't load. Gimme a minute.

Okay I don't know how to get images to appear in the thread.

Oh well, attached is the voting tally. Left is sorted by name. Right is sorted by time stamp.

[Huinesoron]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

Oh well, attached is the voting tally. Left is sorted by name. Right is sorted by time stamp.

From which we can see immediately how bad (or unlucky?) this village has been. Five of the eleven survivors have only voted for people we now know to be innocent; if we include Nilp on the 'confirmed innocent' list, we find only three of them have voted for potential baddies. Greenie hasn't had any of her votees killed yet; Mac and Pitch voted Pitch and Kath on Day 1. That's it. Of the 32 votes cast by the current survivors, 23 were cast on now-known innocents.

hS

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Huinesoron

Of the 32 votes cast by the current survivors, 23 were cast on now-known innocents.

Okay.

So let's assume the wolves don't straightforwardly involve themselves in bandwagons which end up lynching innocents - because they know which bandwagons to avoid - but they will take part in some, especially on D3 when there weren't too many to be of a different opinion.

So four wolves making three votes each is 12 votes. I would say it goes something like 40-60 for wolves joining succesful innocent-bandawagons (them voting an innocent who is lynched 40% of the time the most, and nicely hiding behind a non lynched candidate 60% of the time), as a conservative estimate. It could be 1/3 vs. 2/3 as well - which would be even worse from the villagers' POV.

Looking at the craziness of D3 voting we might need to bring that percentage to 50-50 as the wolves had no other option but to comply (basically Brinn's complaint could be read as well as a frustrated wolf's cry of "doggone it" than an innocent's).

With that ratio we'd have the wolves giving 6 votes to others than the known innocents, so meanwhile the rest of the village (8 people) have given votes to "not-known innocents" only three times!

8 innocent villagers 3 votes each - and only three of those votes have gone to someone else than a now known innocent!




They really need to pull themselves together now.

Originally Posted by BG

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

I'm afraid that might be true. And if what happens toNight is because of:

Originally Posted by BG

If the Ranger goes after Nilp and not Greenie...

If Nilp is a Wolf then that was a good play to distract the Ranger. If Nilp is the BH imma be mad.

then I'm going to be a little frustrated as well...


So thumbs up for the Ranger!

[Nogrod]

Naturally, it all could go down a totally different route.

Let's say Nilp is the Seer who panicked - or for some other reason - decided to go on some dashingly daring game? That is not totally out of question.

Or maybe Greenie is just a really smart wolf who fools us all? (In that case I'd say she'd deserve victory)

Maybe Lommy's lament at the end of D3 - which felt quite convincing - was actually her plot trying to steer away those few who might have suspected her on D4, or at least make them hesitate just enough to save her from the ropes?

Or: while my reason keeps reminding me, that Legate is the most believable wolf-candidate, but in the back of my mind there is this nagging voice saying, "Maybe you're wrong? Maybe he's just short on time (as he has said) or something and the rest is just conjecture?".



Well, four minutes...

[Blind Guardian]

I reloaded the living thread as say the red ++Legate and was no way the Wolves lynched her and then realised that was us Dead. I gotta go calm down...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

I reloaded the living thread as say the red ++Legate and was no way the Wolves lynched her and then realised that was us Dead. I gotta go calm down...

[Blind Guardian]

*throws hands up in the air*

[Loslote]

Welcome, Greenie and Legate!

[Nogrod]

WHOA!!!

We were right on both!


But what this means remains to be thought of.


Anyway: welcome Greenie and also Legate - and kudos to the Trapper!

Take a comfy chair- there is no Spanish Inquisition here.

[Blind Guardian]

Honestly, looking at this is pretty apparent that Greenie is the stand out.

Literally everyone else voted for Form.

My guess is Legate is a Wolf. Greenie is the Seer. Greenie is dying tonight.

Unless the Ranger is paying attention and caught what we caught. If the Ranger goes after Nilp and not Greenie...

If Nilp is a Wolf then that was a good play to distract the Ranger. If Nilp is the BH imma be mad.