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Old 06-10-2020, 04:12 PM   #1
satansaloser2005
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WHOA.

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

And nicely done, my beloved! I'm proud of you! Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there!
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Last edited by satansaloser2005; 06-10-2020 at 04:20 PM. Reason: forgot to bold the beloved <3
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Old 06-10-2020, 04:23 PM   #2
Macalaure
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That's a lot to unwrap here.

So first, yay for Nilp! (Assuming it was Nilp)

But there goes our seer...

The wolves chose to not put the nightmare wolf in the line of fire for the kill. I suppose they considered Legate a goner anyway. It does re-iterate though that the wolves seem to value their numbers higher than the NW powers.

We have to agree for some kind of mode for Greenie to send us her knowledge. Doesn't hurt to analyze her posts anyway, obviously.

And then there's Legate to analyze.

It's going to be interesting to analyze the voting, too, considering that every one left voted for the same person. A close look at the way the suspicion against him mounted over days is going to be legitimately interesting, though.

And considering that Form was the medium, I dare not imagine the amount of harsh language the dead aimed at the living yesterDay.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sally
Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there!
Unless I'm mistaken, the beast hunter can only trap a wolf once. Nilp-assuming-it's-Nilp is effectively an ordo now.

Last edited by Macalaure; 06-10-2020 at 04:24 PM. Reason: crossed with Brinn and Lommy
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Old 06-10-2020, 04:29 PM   #3
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I made a note of Greenie's analysis of Legate looking very seerish if he was a wolf, but then when she gave the wrong number of dreams I thought "nah, probably not the seer" ...

Well done, Nilp!

Now: I was really worried about toDay being the last day and getting myself lynched because of my antics yesterDay, but it's not quite so dire now. Still, I should explain. I was ridiculously sure Form was a wolf, and thought I could simultaneously protect the seer and ensure a wolf lynch. I figured it would be the last thing I did in the living thread, so I did everything I could to stir the pot and get the other wolves to ... uh ... float to the top? Is that what wolves do? Anyway, I'm really embarrassed. Don't lynch me, I'm a plain ordo who has apparently lost all their wolf-detecting ability.
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Old 06-10-2020, 04:45 PM   #4
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Well that was a rollercoaster! A serious blow to lose the Seer but a very effective Night for the Beast Hunter.

Lommy is right that finding a way to communicate with Greenie in the Dead Thread is a good idea but given the only means of communication is the vote for the Medium, and we only see that in the narration, I think the effectiveness of any such communication can only really come into play toMorrow.

I am also aware that Greenie's sustained suspicion of me makes things look pretty bad for me toDay. The only thing I hope can convince people that I am not a furry evil-doer is that despite the sustained suspicion, her vote went to Legate in the end. Had I been a wolf, and had she dreamed wolf-me and wolf-Legate, why switch her vote? Even though the Form-waggon (and seriously sorry Form!) pretty much knocked anyone else out of the running, I would have been a better bet for the lynch yesterDay over Legate as far as I can tell.
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Old 06-11-2020, 11:06 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
Well that was a rollercoaster! A serious blow to lose the Seer but a very effective Night for the Beast Hunter.

Lommy is right that finding a way to communicate with Greenie in the Dead Thread is a good idea but given the only means of communication is the vote for the Medium, and we only see that in the narration, I think the effectiveness of any such communication can only really come into play toMorrow.

I am also aware that Greenie's sustained suspicion of me makes things look pretty bad for me toDay. The only thing I hope can convince people that I am not a furry evil-doer is that despite the sustained suspicion, her vote went to Legate in the end. Had I been a wolf, and had she dreamed wolf-me and wolf-Legate, why switch her vote? Even though the Form-waggon (and seriously sorry Form!) pretty much knocked anyone else out of the running, I would have been a better bet for the lynch yesterDay over Legate as far as I can tell.
This from Kath seems like it's written from a defensive wolf's perspective - "okay, how do I defend myself tomorrow?" - the bolded especially.

However, that the defense itself is based on Greenie, who didn't reveal until dawn, maybe makes it less likely? I honestly can't decide. I started this post having seen that initial statement of Kath's, thought "oh!", and then thought of the Greenie thing mid-post-construction.
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Old 06-10-2020, 04:54 PM   #6
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Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.
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Old 06-11-2020, 04:33 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.
This seems really logical and a good idea.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinn
For one, I'm not entirely positive how likely a Pitch/Kath combo actually is.
I'm quoting Brinn, but actually quite a few people keep talking about a Pitch/Kath combo. I'd love this to be explained because I've no idea what it's meant to be.
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Last edited by Kath; 06-11-2020 at 04:34 AM. Reason: Bolding
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Old 06-11-2020, 07:03 AM   #8
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So we actually had a Greenseer? Is this Middle-earth or Westeros?

Got to say this comes as a surprise in more than one way. I mean, I had a strong innocent impression from her posts, but nothing particularly seerish; makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.

Also, since the wolves now consistently killed people for suspecting Legate three Nights in a row, I'm surprised - disappointed really - he wasn't the NW. Why incriminate a packmate so heavily if you have nothing special to gain by his death?

On another note, after Rikae's rather notable Seer hints yesterDay, I'm rather surprised the wolves left them alone and went for Greenie instead, unless of course Rikae is one themself. I mean, it's not impossible that Rikae was trying to set themself up as a decoy to distract from the real Seer, as they claim, but at the same time those hints could have been laid in preparation for a fake reveal to draw out the Seer toDay, and at the very least they could have drawn the Ranger's protection from the real Seer. So I must say I don't like their prophylactic apology in their first post toDay.
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Old 06-11-2020, 07:28 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pitchwife View Post
makes me wonder what the wolves noticed - or Nilp, for that matter, since it seems he actually was the BH.
As for me, since I'd set the trap around my house the DAY before, I simply went with the living villager who hadn't voted for Form. No deeper reason.

(I was more disappointed with my DAY 1 choice: it was down to Lottie or Bryn [sic], and guess who I chose.)
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Last edited by Nilpaurion Felagund; 06-11-2020 at 07:50 AM. Reason: NOT 'hadn't voted for Legate'
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Old 06-11-2020, 07:12 AM   #10
Kath
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A look at Legate:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!
From Day 1. Well Lottie = innocent, Nilp I am assuming = BH, Form = innocent, BG = innocent. So the only person left there is Pitch. Would Legate hide a wolf amongst a list of innocents? I can't see why not. Also, there was a lot of Cobbler talk from Legate in hindsight as opposed to wolf talk. He convinces himself Form is a Cobbler then votes Form because he is more suspicious than Hui by default of being a Cobbler. Oh blast, how didn't we spot this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
It is possible he might be a Cobbler, but I still find him more suspicious by default than Hui.
It can only be by default if you know that Hui is innocent ... which Legate did!

Day 2
Exonerates Shasta's vote for Hui by saying it's impossible to tell how the Hui-wagon would go. Soft defend. Says Rikae's vote would only be significant if Form was a wolf, which he now know he wasn't, so could be setting up a defence. Begins to push suspicion of Nog here based on his vote. Not sure what he was concluding about my vote.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Otherwise, to me personally, the most suspicious votes seem to be Pitch's, which was the most throwaway thing ever and I would like to hear more reasoning for it, and BG's, which I still consider it like riding the coattails of Hui's. That would, however, make sense only if Form was not a Wolf. Or in other words, if BG is a Wolf, Form is likely not, and vice versa. Something to keep in mind.
Setting up a handy x relies on y that it turns out was based on two innocents. So he knew BG and Form were innocent and again pops Pitch's name in with that list.

Says Mac is downplaying the likelihood of Form and Nilp being wolves. Then leaps on Nog.

Summary of list post:
Good = Lommy, Greenie ( known innocent), Brinn, Rikae
Middle = Pitch, Nilp (assumed BH), Kath, Shasta, sally
Bad = Mac, Form (known innocent), Nog (known innocent), BG (known innocent)

So at a guess, Mac could be a wolf as Legate would probably be willing to name a fellow lupine as a top suspect. Also, at this point, I don't think Mac was even near a potential lynch candidate for most of the village, so it's a pretty safe suspicion. And then one from the middle - so to me that's Pitch, Shasta, sally. And one from the good - so Lommy, Brinn or Rikae.

Well that reeeeally narrowed things down.

Hmm, right after that, he revises his list to make Shasta and sally more suspicious.

Day 3
Pushes at Rikae and Pitch for their votes. So I'd say maybe only one of these two would be wolfy. Also starts to connect Mac and Nilp as a pairing. Jumps on Form at this point.

Looks at Mac and decides it could go either way.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
The only thing that still puzzles me is the accusation of Mac he has made; if Nilp's innocent, that was dangerous at the very least.
In Nilp's previous post, he downgraded Mac from top suspect to 6th/7th, so this doesn't actually make any sense. Sensitive to mentions of Mac because ... Mac's a fellow wolf?

New list (summarised - and I underlined movers):
Good = Lommy, Brinn (previously was Lommy, Greenie, Brinn, Rikae)
Middle = Greenie, Kath, Pitch, Rikae, Shasta (previously was Pitch, Nilp, Kath, Shasta, sally)
Bad = sally, Mac, Form (previously was Mac, Form, Nog, BG)

So I'd say only one of sally and Mac was a wolf then, as they're both in the red there.

Mac, sally, Rikae are standing out the most to me here. Followed by Shasta and Pitch. Which probably means the remaining wolves are Lommy, Brinn and flipping Nilp given how wrong I've been all game.
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Old 06-11-2020, 11:11 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Macalaure View Post
Let's get the communication stuff out of the way before we get into the meat of things.

I think it makes more sense to communicate known wolves over known innocents. Obviously, though, we don't want the dead to turn a wolf into the medium.

What about:

If Brinniel is a wolf, empower Kath.
If Kath is a wolf, empower Mac.
If Macalaure is a wolf, empower Nilp.
If Nilpaurion Felagund is a wolf, empower Pitch.
If Pitchwife is a wolf, empower Rikae.
If Rikae is a wolf, empower Sally.
If satansaloser2005 is a wolf, empower Shasta.
If Shastanis Althreduin is a wolf, empower Lommy.
If Thinlomien is a wolf, empower Brinniel.

If you don't have a known wolf, empower no one.

There's of course a possibility that two wolves are adjacent in the alphabet, but what are you gonna do.
This perspective from Mac about the possibility of a wolf receiving the medium empowerment... He's clearly thinking about all things mechanical here. I kind of like it, although I'm not sure I should.
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Old 06-10-2020, 06:30 PM   #12
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Thoughts so far:

Most Likely Innocent*
Nilp
Shasta


More Likely Innocent*
Lommy
Rikae


More Likely a Wolf
Kath
Mac
Pitchwife
Sally


*Innocent doesn't exclude the cobbler

Well, that narrows it down. Could it be that easy that all three wolves are among my list of four? I will bet at least two of those four are wolves. Will do so more digging later. I feel like I've been so lost these past few Days, but with the events of last Night, now maybe we're getting somewhere.
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Old 06-10-2020, 07:01 PM   #13
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Agreed on most points.

Most likely innocent:
Shasta
Nilp
Kath. Why? Greenie was after her from the start. In retrospect, it doesn't look like a dream compared to how she handled Legate, but at the time, to a pack including a Kathwolf, I think it would.

Which leaves more likely wolves:
Mac
Pitch
Sally
Brinn

(apologies for lack of bolding, I'm on my phone)
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Old 06-10-2020, 07:03 PM   #14
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Edit: and Lommy on that last list. I didn't see any sign of her being a dreamed innocent.
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Old 06-10-2020, 07:25 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Which beloved, and who is "we"?
Brinn is correct. I meant Nilp, for catching a wolf in the act. Granted, it would have been better if they hadn't also gotten our seer, but still, one down is a success.
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Old 06-10-2020, 07:28 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
Brinn is correct. I meant Nilp, for catching a wolf in the act. Granted, it would have been better if they hadn't also gotten our seer, but still, one down is a success.
Then what do you mean by "do it again"?
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Old 06-10-2020, 07:30 PM   #17
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Good to know I was right on Legate, but bad to know I was right and acted on others instead. What is the phrase? Ah, yes. "Isn't it nice to know a lot? And a little bit not."

I'm still of the solid opinion that Kath could be a wolf. I need to look at her interactions with Legate, which I'll probably do in the morning.

I can only be wrong so many times! Right? Right?

Probably being defensive here, but Rikae keeps questioning me on what, to me, seem like obvious statements. I'm not sure if it's evil or cobblery or just the way they read my posts (which I am sometimes confusing!), so I'll keep an eye on it for now and come back to that as well in the morning.

We need to be careful toDay with our lynch. Nilp bought us a Day, sure, but let's not waste it, eh? (Hint: Those of you putting me on your suspect lists are wasting it, it being our precious time.)

Out for now. Maybe back later, but I have some chores to do and will probably then go to bed.


x'd with Rikae
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Old 06-11-2020, 03:52 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lommy
Yeah, there's no way three innocents just randomly decided to make a bandwagon against Mac.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
One, at least, but I'm fairly confident.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath
So who do you think is what here?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
Already said, above. I'm on my phone, sorry.
I found what I assumed was the post you were referring to:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shasta
Mac/Kath/Lommy is where I'm leaning. Potentially with Rikae.

Brinn/Sally good, Pitch... probably good??? Oh lord.

WHO AM I FORGETTING???
So you, sally and Pitch all voted for Mac. And you said one of them is innocent. I was asking which one you thought was innocent, given I assumed you weren't counting yourself.

Sorry if that wasn't clear when I asked.
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Old 06-11-2020, 03:55 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
I found what I assumed was the post you were referring to:

So you, sally and Pitch all voted for Mac. And you said one of them is innocent. I was asking which one you thought was innocent, given I assumed you weren't counting yourself.

Sorry if that wasn't clear when I asked.
Oh. Me, of course. I don't know any other alignments.
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Old 06-10-2020, 05:30 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by satansaloser2005 View Post
WHOA.

I mean, I had Greenie pegged as a gifted, but I assumed ranger. Apparently the wolves noticed something I didn't.

And nicely done, my beloved! I'm proud of you! Now do it again tomorrow and we're halfway there!
Which beloved, and who is "we"?
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Old 06-10-2020, 05:40 PM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Which beloved, and who is "we"?
I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.
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Old 06-10-2020, 05:52 PM   #22
Rikae
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Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
I'm guessing beloved = BH = Nilp

And I would presume she meant the village. Two wolves = halfway there.
Except that Nilp can't do it again toMorrow, but the wolves can "do it again" in the sense of killing another gifted. And "beloved" could be any of several people, with Nilp as cover.
It just strikes me as the kind of thing a baddie might say for their own amusement - playing with fire - when they feel like victory is close.

Another thing: I realized I've been thinking of Lommy as innocentish all this time without any solid reason, and, reading back through her posts quickly, I was struck by how it all had this light, cheerful vibe, dancing around on the surface of things, talking a lot about game mechanics and other not-directly-productive stuff, those VERY easy votes. Why haven't I been considering her a possible wolf? She's been acting like a classic careful wolf!
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Old 06-10-2020, 06:20 PM   #23
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A Look a Legate

A Wall of Text (don't worry, it's mostly just quotes).

Day 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
I agree on the second, but I actually think Kath acts exactly the same as in the last game, and was about to say how nice it is that she posts stuff that seems sensible... until I remembered that back there she was a Wolf (and I did not suspect her at all exactly because she posted sensible). So in this case, I rather feel like I should raise my alert threshold on her and I will be watching her.
Hmm...could go either way here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
A Little Green - nothing suspicious thus far, sensible posts
Blind Guardian - very easy posting with the "I'm jumping on Kath's vote and just adding one of my own to it". Hoping to see more from them, might get a better picture after an actual vote.
Brinniel - only a few posts, nothing that stood out, aside from that she also seemed to discuss some of the WW tactics in a manner that made me wonder whether she had discussed it at Night with someone, but that's about it.
Formendacil - see above. Probably made me wary the most, but I would very much like to see some more posting from him to make a more three-dimensional picture.
Huinesoron - like I said, as of now, the fact that he's posting much more inquisitively than in the previous game seems more like an indicator of innocence to me, even though I acknowledge the possibility of otherwise.
Kath - also see what I said in my post above - posts sensibly, I guess I will just watch her more closely.
Loslote - I am not sure what to make of her "let's not lynch a Wolf" suggestion, because, I don't think even a Wolf would suggest that. A Cobbler might, perhaps.
Macalaure - he has posted very little, which actually surprises me, most of all because of the almost zero content in his one post. So much that it is actually eyebrow-raising. I definitely would like to see more from him.
Nogrod - I see he's compensating on not being able to talk about Kant and Marx in the previous game, but to be fair, I also, kind of, expected him to be more... controversial, perhaps, or inquisitive. (However I see this may be changing as we speak.)
Nilp - well, as I said above: the evidence is inconclusive and it could be anything. Not even the shoes at posts that Rikae pointed out seem to be in any reasonable order. It is kind of a setback that to get some read of him grounded in something more relevant, one would have to wait for his vote on Day 2. I will probably reserve my judgment for toDay to get a better read of him in the future.
Pitchwife - actually he seems to be poking around a lot too. I agree that his talk about fishskin shoes might be a Cobbler signal, otherwise he seems a bit all over the place. I'm also wary there.
Rikae - generally seems like their normal self.
sally - okay, I see that toDay wasn't seemingly the best Day, I hope she can participate in the future, so get better, sally!

But I will use this as opportunity of seeing a no-vote to say that I disapprove of no-votes and likely will crack down on anyone who does that. I can understand in this one case (and I would add "and it being Day 1" - but then I can already see more people doing it "because Day 1s are useless yadda yadda" and THAT is still the worst thing people can do, whatever their role - votes are here to give information!) But for anyone who's healthy and all, please, vote.

Shastanis Althreduin - I like his posting and actually agree on many of his points. Pretty good for now.
Thinlómien - overall innocent Lommy vibes here, nothing special.

Overall there are multiple people who look like they could be Cobblers (Lottie, Nilp, Pitch), and from the others whom I consider suspicious at least to a degree there would be Form or BG. That is kind of preciously little. Ok, off to check the posts and ooooh how is it this late!!
I think it less likely that evil Legate would outright declare his packmates as innocentish - which makes me feel a bit better about Rikae and Lommy in addition to Shasta. He picks up on the idea that was brought up that Pitch is a cobbler - either Pitch is a packmate or Legate probably didn't think he really was the cobbler.

Voted for Formy.

Day 2

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Therefore I find it more likely that the Wolves would simply opted for her as a solid, fairly innocent-seeming person with clear opinions, who therefore could be the Seer. Also perhaps her remark in the middle of the final rush that "I don't really think Hui is a Wolf" was seen as a Seer-slip after all. That actually makes sense, the more I think about it.
I do wonder if he's actually telling the truth about this decision and knew that it might implicate Legate. Or if Nog was right in that they thought Lottie dreamt Legate. I didn't think this because I didn't believe that an evil Legate would so quickly react to suspicion of him as seer behavior on Day 1, but maybe I'm wrong. If so, sorry Nogs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Green zone:

Lommy - generally seems innocentish to me, nothing that would give me Wolfy vibes.
Greenie - also nothing in particular. I may want to start paying more attention to her, because I realise she's been under my radar, but more or less reasonable posting thus far.
Brinn - same. I agree with many of her points, especially regarding BG. She's basically the Rune of this game for me.

Lemon-lime zone:

Rikae - yesterDay seemed generally like going with very rational analysis that I could essentially follow. Would like to see more from them still toDay.

Yellow zone:

Pitch - has some reasonable points, but also sometimes very strange ones. I also think I should get a better read on him, perhaps I'll review his posts when I have time. But he's nowhere near my top list of suspicious people.
Nilp - yesterDay was all over the place, toDay is very rational, systematic, overall making a lot of sense. Of course it might be a convenient tactic for a Wolf that would also enable him to gently skew the perspective - what better way to do it but in a thorough analysis - but I am so far more content with him than yesterDay.
Kath - overall posting sensibly, rationally. I am however growingly getting some uncertain vibe that there might be something fermenting underneath. I would like to see more posting from her.

Yellow but with grey questionmarks because missing content:

Shasta - where is Shasta? I absolutely want to see more from him toDay.
sally - basically ditto. Appeared, but did not really contribute thus far.

Orange zone:

Mac - there are some things in his posting that strike me as peculiar, like just now the way he so straightforwardly dismissed the possibility to glean something about Form&Nilp from yesterDay's voting. Continuing watching him.
Form - I am still not free from the suspicion I had of him yesterDay. Plus, given the setup of votes yesterDay, I am not ruling out that either he or Nilp might be Wolves who were being at some point covered for by votes of other Wolves, and he seems to me to be the more likely one. He may also be a Cobbler, which also does not rule out the above scenario, in theory.

Red Zone:

Nog - see above; yesterDay, I only thought he behaved a bit less confrontationally or inquisitively than I would expect of him, now his posting went from bad to worse. Plus his vote was also in a rather convenient position and his reasoning for Hui looks exactly like something a Wolf would be happy to pick on (and if Form is his fellow Wolf, Nog intentionally diverted attention from him towards Hui). Might be my primary vote candidate toDay.
BG - I am still suspicious about her vote yesterDay, and I still think it was the most likely Wolf-y one, however fairly straightforward. But also would like to see more about her current suspicions etc.
Okay, so there were no wolves in his red-zone. Lommy is in his green zone which makes her look better to me and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I think his packmates are hidden somewhere in the yellow/orange zones, most likely.

Votes Nogrod. Which means he was the evil link in that bandwagon. There could be another wolf that took part in the Nog lynch, but I can't imagine any more than that. If there was, my guess would be Pitch.

Day 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate
Mac - looking back, he was actually very "happy-go-lucky" at the start of the first Day, later got to a more analytical mode. This all happened with not so much activity. Pitch was one he suspected, ending with voting him. Seemed very convinced that Hui was "at most a Cobbler". I would not think a Wolf-Mac would make such clear statements, but then again, anything is possible.
On Day 2, he had reasonable points again. Overall, he seemed convinced about quite a few people being cobblerish at one point or another. Had some back-and-forth with Shasta that eventually ended with him accepting Shasta's clarification. Eventually went with voting Nilp out of his suspects, which I would still like to hear about.
In this light, perhaps the most incriminating part is that both his votes were in such a way that went "off the mainstream". Mac can definitely be highly individualistic, but it could also be a good cover not to get involved in anything incriminating. I am still wary of the way he sorta floats about.

Overall Nilp remains in my yellow zone for now, and I will definitely wait until when he reappears to hear more from him. Similarly, Mac remains in my orange zone.

I would like to still look back at the posts of people like Rikae and Pitchwife, who remain in my center-grey zone, or even Greenie, whom I'm overall getting good vibe about but perhaps should try to look freshly at. But somehow not sure if I will have time since this took so long... now to see if anyone posted...
His opinions of Mac are fairly safe - sort of suspecting, but not really. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Voted for Formy which he just kind of went along with (in truth, pretty much everyone did).

On a side note: 3,000 posts. Whee!
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Old 06-11-2020, 11:28 AM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brinniel View Post
A Wall of Text (don't worry, it's mostly just quotes).

Day 1


Hmm...could go either way here.


I think it less likely that evil Legate would outright declare his packmates as innocentish - which makes me feel a bit better about Rikae and Lommy in addition to Shasta. He picks up on the idea that was brought up that Pitch is a cobbler - either Pitch is a packmate or Legate probably didn't think he really was the cobbler.

Voted for Formy.

Day 2


I do wonder if he's actually telling the truth about this decision and knew that it might implicate Legate. Or if Nog was right in that they thought Lottie dreamt Legate. I didn't think this because I didn't believe that an evil Legate would so quickly react to suspicion of him as seer behavior on Day 1, but maybe I'm wrong. If so, sorry Nogs.


Okay, so there were no wolves in his red-zone. Lommy is in his green zone which makes her look better to me and to a lesser extent, Rikae. I think his packmates are hidden somewhere in the yellow/orange zones, most likely.

Votes Nogrod. Which means he was the evil link in that bandwagon. There could be another wolf that took part in the Nog lynch, but I can't imagine any more than that. If there was, my guess would be Pitch.

Day 3


His opinions of Mac are fairly safe - sort of suspecting, but not really. Could be wolf-on-wolf.

Voted for Formy which he just kind of went along with (in truth, pretty much everyone did).

On a side note: 3,000 posts. Whee!
I don't know if I agree with thinking Lommy and Rikae look better from Legate calling them innocent. That this pack didn't decide to bus the NW to activate their powers says to me that they're looking to stay cohesive and not really wolf-on-wolf.
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Old 06-11-2020, 11:29 AM   #25
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I think it's entirely possible we're too close to numbers being even to discount the use of the Medium vote as what it actually is - a vote.
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Old 06-11-2020, 11:30 AM   #26
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That is to say - it's entirely possible Greenie didn't dream of another wolf, which through Mac' list would result in no medium vote, which is a good-controlled vote we're missing out on. I don't like that - and I do think that's something a Macwolf would consider.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV
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Old 06-11-2020, 11:35 AM   #27
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Quote:
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I think it's entirely possible we're too close to numbers being even to discount the use of the Medium vote as what it actually is - a vote.
Thank you! That's what I was trying to get at above. If we follow Mac's scheme or Lommy's, we'll only know what the Dead were trying to say when the lynching's done. IMO the better alternative would be for all of us to do a +-prevote, so if the Dead have a known wolf they can empower those voting them, and if they have known innocents they can empower votes to save them.
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