Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[mormegil]

Well sung guy who be short. The best corse of action is to analyse each villager and the werewolf will present him/herself inadvertently based on their responses. Everyone is a suspect currently and we need to hear some defense from indivduals. I would like to hear from two in particular, namely Saucepan Man and Kuruharan. They both live a lifestyle that has made me highly suspect of their character, what with brewing and drinking naught but ale. Now I know that this doesn't imply guilt of murder but we would be wise at looking closely them. And also Kuruharan is new to our village and that casts more doubt on him.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

... what with brewing and drinking naught but ale.

Since when did this become a valid basis for an accusation of murder? Indeed, my tendency to the bottle inevitably aids me in enjoying a most peaceful night's sleep. Most nights I am incapable of even snuffing out the candle, let alone carrying out a grisly murder.

But what about yourself, friend cleric? Since you are so keen to cast aspersions with not a shred of evidence, perhaps you could explain why we shouldn't be looking to you in this grim matter?

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Since when did this become a valid basis for an accusation of murder? Indeed, my tendency to the bottle inevitably aids me in enjoying a most peaceful night's sleep. Most nights I am incapable of even snuffing out the candle, let alone carrying out a grisly murder.

Sauepan Man, I am suprised that you didn't read more carefully I said:

They both live a lifestyle that has made me highly suspect of their character, what with brewing and drinking naught but ale. Now I know that this doesn't imply guilt of murder but we would be wise at looking closely them

I was questioning your character not accusing you my friend. Now if you find a nasty character there you will likely find nasty deeds.

But what about yourself, friend cleric? Since you are so keen to cast aspersions with not a shred of evidence, perhaps you could explain why we shouldn't be looking to you in this grim matter

By all means you should be looking at me, as I said we should be looking at all people. As is well known my nightly routine consists of study, prayer and meditation. After which I retire rather early to bed and sleep rather soundly till just before dawn, unless I am woken by your lot making enough noise to raise the dead.

[Kuruharan]

what with brewing and drinking naught but ale.

I do not drink naught but ale. I will also branch out into whiskey and scotch.

Besides, I would think this makes it painfully obvious that I cannot possibly stand up, much less go about killing people much after 10:00 at night.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

I was questioning your character not accusing you my friend.

Given our current situation, I would say that mentioning anyone's name is tantamount to an accusation (although staring intently is of course, nothing of the sort ). You asked me to explain myself and I did. I would have thought, though, that my friendly nature was well known throughout the village.

Now, preacherman, it seems to me that those early nights provide plenty of scope for grisly night-time activities without leaving you tired. And perhaps its no coincidence that the victim was a free thinker, one whose philosophising might challenge the strict teachings of the church. I see that his books were left in a state such that his thoughts may no longer be shared ...

[The Only Real Estel]

And perhaps its no coincidence that the victim was a free thinker, one whose philosophising might challenge the strict teachings of the church. I see that his books were left in a state such that his thoughts may no longer be shared ...

Now that does make a bit of sense. Although our talk rarely ventured beyond village news and such, it was easy enough to see that he was a free thinker. He tried to talk to me a bit about his views on preaching and religion and such, but, well, I’m afraid I’d had a few too many ales by that point and he knew I'd never remember it by morning. What have you to say about it, parson Morm?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Fiendish wolves! Beasts! Murderers!

All right, so now we have to figure out how we’re going to catch these monsters before they devour us all – more importantly, we have to figure out how we’re going to catch these monsters before we do their dirty work for them by lynching one another. As the village loremaster, I’ve spent a lot of time in study on theoretical matters of risk/reward, and I’ve read many chronicles of the past; I do not claim to know the mind of a monster, but I do know that if we don’t work together, they will be able to destroy us one at a time.

Here’s the situation, as I see it. On our side are numbers – and when I say “our side” I mean of course the innocent villagers not you hairy brutes who hide amongst us. So on our side are numbers, and on theirs is information: the wolves know precisely who is a wolf and who is an innocent, and that’s their one real advantage, for while the rest of us are working in the dark they can silently prowl about, nudging us in one direction or another. We need to correct that – we need solid information rather than guesswork or intuition.

Let’s face it, at the beginning of the game there’s little-to-nothing for us to base our judgements on. How and whom people accuse might be genuine or it might be a bluff; it could be a bluff-in-a-bluff: maybe one person accuses another to hide something, to misdirect, or in a genuine move. How someone is “behaving” might be the result of cunning, naivete, a particular strategy, or honesty. The important thing that we have to realise from the outset is that we can’t know anything for certain – only the werewolves have that luxury.

So at the outset the advantage is entirely the wolves’ – their best strategy is to sit back and let the villagers lynch someone without interference from them: since the choice of who to lynch is utterly random (at first) the odds are wildly in the wolves’ favour: and by the time the odds are getting more even, the villagers have lost the game! So how to defeat them…?

Change the odds.

In order to determine who is what, we need hard information. Not speculation or theories; no spurious “logic” or bizarrely convoluted lines of reasoning through the “evidence”, but verifiable facts. And the only facts of this nature that exist in this situation are the votes. Whom one accuses or suspects is irrelevant: again, the speculations could be strategic, bluffs, guesswork, random or arrived at through the kind of spurious reasoning we need to avoid if we are going to survive. How one votes however is a real fact that we can look at to determine patterns and allegiances. So we need to find a way to make the vote work for us and not against us.

The one thing we absolutely must avoid in these early rounds is consensus. If we all move toward voting for the same person, then the wolves will laugh themselves silly. If by some stroke of fortune we are voting for a wolf, the other two can easily hide by joining with us in the vote – if it’s clear their counterpart is going to die anyway, they throw in their lots with us and win the appearance of innocence, falsely casting doubt on any who abstain or vote another way. If we are voting for an innocent, then the wolves’ options increase: they can cast their vote with us, or abstain or even vote another way and use that later as “evidence” that they are innocents too. We need to force their hands…paws.

This is how I would suggest we do that: we ask the mod to randomly select three names for a short list of nominees for lynching. We need this to be a random selection to make sure that the wolves (who know who is guilty or innocent) are as likely to be among the three as are we innocents. Like I said above, the one thing we have to avoid is consensus, so to make sure we spread the votes around we institute the following rules:

First, there will be a short-list for the next round of voting, and this list will be made up of everyone who votes for the lynched person, if that person is an innocent. (If we are lucky enough to catch a werewolf – and the odds are less than 1 in 50 that we will – we should generate another random list for the second round.) This means that voting to lynch someone carries a real threat of danger: the wolves will be in as much danger from the vote as will the innocents – if they want to kill a particular person, they will have to think long and hard about whether they want to automatically be in the short list for next time!

Second, anyone who does not vote is also added to the short-list. We need to force the wolves to vote, and to vote in a way that is meaningful – that’s the only way we can catch them out.

I would recommend that we do this same process until we catch a werewolf – we will then have sufficient information about the wolf’s voting record, which we can match up with the voting records of other people. The purpose of this strategy is that at best it will give the wolves’ less room to manoeuvre and we can catch them out; the worst case scenario is that developing our own strategy will force the wolves to vote according to our rules and not according to their hidden agenda. With a level playing field, our advantage in numbers becomes a true advantage.

One more idea in this already long diatribe: our seer. Whoever they are, they are our greatest asset, but we can’t really use them. The seer has to be extremely guarded in their actions unless they bring down the wolves on them – this means that if the seer is eaten, the evidence left behind might be somewhat fragmentary (“did the seer accuse this person because of a vision or as a gambit?”). We can help the seer by providing camouflage: after each night, we should all declare the results of our “seer vision” – that is, each one of us will put up the name of one other person and whether that person is innocent or a wolf as though each of us is the seer. In these moments, the real seer MUST always tell the absolute truth: this will make it possible for the seer to flag the truth for the other innocents while hiding from the wolves. This might make the seer more visible to the Wolves as the game goes on, but if they know that the seer is leaving behind the real results of true visions with each and every round, to kill the seer is to identify them, which will mean that we will have the benefit of hard information from each seer vision. To kill the seer becomes a terrible risk for the wolves, and not a benefit. As information emerges (through lynchings and wolf attacks) the other villagers will also be in a position to figure out who is the seer alongside the wolves, so perhaps the seer won’t have to die before we can use their information to bag a hairy monster, or two, or three…

Obviously, for these strategies to work, we are all going to have to subscribe to them – so what do you all think? The one thing we must do is work together if we are to have any hope of destroying these monsters. We are our own worst enemies at the moment…

[the guy who be short]

Danger! Accusations! Fingers pointing left and right!
Squabble if you must, but resolve yourselves by night.

Fordim: The Seer's job is to guide us, as unsuspiciously as possible, in the game. I think having everybody pretend to be a Seer would simply undermine this. Also, as Firefoot says, your ideas are mathematically unsound; for example,

If we are lucky enough to catch a werewolf – and the odds are less than 1 in 50 that we will

It is clear you meant 1 in 5, but 3 in 14 is a better chance than 1 in 5, not worse, albeit slightly.
I am opposed to the ideas because having a short list does not seem feasable to me. All three wolves could easily stay off the shortlist by voting for an innocent villager who doesn't end up getting lynched, etc. By keeping everybody votable, we know that we can end up voting for a wolf, even if they influence our decisions.

Another thing that concerns me is Saucy's jesting. Verily, I enjoy jokes as much as the next man, but this seems incredibly out of place when one fifteenth of the hamlet has just been viciously slaughtered. He also voiced suspicion, perhaps jestingly, of Phantom and Kuru without offering any sort of explanation.

Mormegil and Saucy both voiced suspicion of Kuru on the basis that he is a newcomer. I am not aiming suspicion at them here, but would like to take this moment to condemn both Xenophobia and Dwarrowphobia which appear to be rampant amongst our populance.

Sono said

The Guy Who Be Short, too, seemed jealous of Mr. Eomer's learning, always trying to show him up at town book readings and the like.

What do you mean trying to show him up? I did show him up, poor soul.
Our Holy Father Mormegil will confirm that I did come to him to ask for guidance over my feelings of jealousy, both of Eomer and of Azaelia whose vegetables seem to be much more popular than mine. With his help, and the help of Eru Iluvatar, I was able to overcome these emotions many months ago.

Finally:

Without guidance from some sort of seer it is, as short guy (can I call you that?) said, a "shot into the dark".

I'm generally called TGWBS.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Given our current situation, I would say that mentioning anyone's name is tantamount to an accusation (although staring intently is of course, nothing of the sort ). You asked me to explain myself and I did. I would have thought, though, that my friendly nature was well known throughout the village.

Now, preacherman, it seems to me that those early nights provide plenty of scope for grisly night-time activities without leaving you tired. And perhaps its no coincidence that the victim was a free thinker, one whose philosophising might challenge the strict teachings of the church. I see that his books were left in a state such that his thoughts may no longer be shared ...

So if I understand correctly it is acceptable to accuse one if is implied by what is said just so long as we don't name any names? I merely state my suspicions (taking a big risk I might add) and that is equivalent to accusing but somehow there is a difference when you accuse but don't say my name?

Now as far as it goes with Eomer's free thinking, I readily admit that we didn't see eye to eye on many issues, however He and I had many a lively debate and chat that we each enjoyed to share ideas and express differences. Sadly those will no longer be held due to his demise by those fiendish wolves.

[Evisse the Blue]

Rest in peace, brave handsome Eomer! No more shall he taste of my fish.

Well, Mr Loremaster, speaking for myself as a simple wench, you've gotten us to a heck of a start here proposing a fine strategy and all, but one in which we trust to luck more than I am happy to. However I can see how, at this point, all of us are pretty much 'dancing in the dark', so to speak, so your idea of making this an organized waltz may not be so bad. The idea seems good and you put it very nice and proper, Mr Fordim. However, and you'll forgive me for being so discourteous, but I can't believe that a man of lore such as yourself overlooked Firefoot's objection, which I'd say it's pretty important: random selection does seem to favour the werewolves. In the event that we get really unlucky, we will slay quite a few innocents before a werewolf is even selected, and none of the other innocents can be blamed for voting for innocents, as long as they're the only ones on the list.
The seer idea is interesting, but blind luck could also be against us, even here, at least at the first stages.
However, because a decision must be reached, and being an optimist sort of person, I'll say we go with it and see where it leads us.

[the phantom]

Eomer was the first to die?! I'm shocked!

(you can add me as the town crier if you wish, Eomer- as long as you are meaning a law official and not the town moper or weeper)

So, another werewolf attack, eh? I heard that the two villages up the road got taken out by those beasts. There wasn't an army of them though- it was never more than a group of three. But that was enough.

It seems that they did quite a bit of their damage during the day, getting the townspeople to lynch innocents. We must not allow that to happen here.

But how can we avoid it this first day? Without guidance from some sort of seer it is, as short guy (can I call you that?) said, a "shot into the dark".

Seeing as there is no use in logic, we must go with our guts on this day.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go take a walk and figure out what my gut is trying to tell me (if anything).

[Firefoot]

Fordim, your strategy would be excellent for flushing out werewolves if it were mathematically sound. There is a ratio of roughly 4 villagers:1 werewolf; a list of three random people is more likely to include three innocent villagers than even two villagers and one werewolf. At odds of 2 villagers:1 werewolf, such a theory would be plausible, but with only about one-fifth of the people being a werewolf, the odds are pretty bad.

I suppose they're bad anyway, but I'd rather be casting a vote off of a full list that is sure to include werewolves than a random short list which is probable not to have a werewolf.

Your point about not reaching a consensus is understood, but I don't think we need a short list to do so. For the moment, I'd rather keep the field open.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

The point of my strategy Firefoot is, as you rightly note, not to narrow the odds but to force the Wolves' hands...paws. If we generate a random list of three nominees that is the only way to guarantee that the Wolves have no way of influencing that list. If we try to bash out a list of three names ourselves, we can never be sure that the wolves aren't influencing that selection...in fact, we can be sure that they are influencing the selection. They have the advantage of knowledge, randomizing this first round is the only way to reduce that advantage.

At the very least, I would hope that we could move toward a short list of some kind, and that we could spread the votes around to make sure that each one stands out. I also think that we need to make people accountable for their vote (by having those who vote for an innocent be on the next short list) and to force everyone to vote (by having anyone who does not vote put on the short list).

The point is, we need to flush out the wolves from hiding within our numbers!

[the phantom]

(just noticed Fordy's post above my last one)

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree), but as far as the idea for protecting the seer, I think it's a good one. I do see a way that an extremely risky and devious wolf could use it to his advantage, but it would have a fairly good chance of backfiring on him, so I doubt he'd try it.

Count me in as far as the seer protection goes. Every day I will tell about my "dream" and name a person as innocent or guilty.

[The Only Real Estel]

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

edit: although we are not supposed to be referring to this as a 'game,' I do need to say just one thing: make sure that in our thinking up ways to make it easier for the us we don't make the village more of a bunch of mathematical processes than the game that it in fact is.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree)

I makes me antsy too since it puts some peril into our vote -- but that's the point, for it will imperil the Wolves too! The only way the Wolves can exploit it is NOT to vote for the person who is going to be killed if that person is an innocent. But if the vote is close, the wolves will not have a clear idea of who is to die until close to the end of voting -- you see where this is headed...it puts pressure on the wolves: vote early and risk being caught on a short list, or wait until the end and risk being spotted as someone who is afraid to vote...

It's not mathematically perfect or guaranteed, there's no way to develop any system that will do that, but it does mean that the wolves will have to react to what we are doing rather than simply the other way around.

I'm happy that the seer protection plan is getting some good response -- but it will only really work if the seer agrees to do it, which we won't know if he or she has done for a while!!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

To clarify: the Seer has not yet dreamed of anybody.

[The Only Real Estel]

I must admit I have no suspicions in particular. I never knew the chap very well, though I can’t say I’ve had much time for chatting lately what with my business as it is and all. He did always greet me when we passed on the street and every once in awhile we’d sit down and have one of Saucey’s brews. That phantom fellow could sometimes make me feel a bit uncomfortable, but I think that might be just because he could make me look like a fool in a battle of wits. So I’m not goin’ and accusing him based on that, just commenting. I can see there’s a problem here that’ll take some attending to, though; so I guess I’ll be having to lay my business aside for awhile or else I’ll be so muddled between the two I’ll need another ale to set me straight.