Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 06-03-2005, 12:38 PM

Eomer was the first to die?! I'm shocked!

(you can add me as the town crier if you wish, Eomer- as long as you are meaning a law official and not the town moper or weeper)

So, another werewolf attack, eh? I heard that the two villages up the road got taken out by those beasts. There wasn't an army of them though- it was never more than a group of three. But that was enough.

It seems that they did quite a bit of their damage during the day, getting the townspeople to lynch innocents. We must not allow that to happen here.

But how can we avoid it this first day? Without guidance from some sort of seer it is, as short guy (can I call you that?) said, a "shot into the dark".

Seeing as there is no use in logic, we must go with our guts on this day.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go take a walk and figure out what my gut is trying to tell me (if anything).

Firefoot · 06-03-2005, 12:57 PM

Fordim, your strategy would be excellent for flushing out werewolves if it were mathematically sound. There is a ratio of roughly 4 villagers:1 werewolf; a list of three random people is more likely to include three innocent villagers than even two villagers and one werewolf. At odds of 2 villagers:1 werewolf, such a theory would be plausible, but with only about one-fifth of the people being a werewolf, the odds are pretty bad.

I suppose they're bad anyway, but I'd rather be casting a vote off of a full list that is sure to include werewolves than a random short list which is probable not to have a werewolf.

Your point about not reaching a consensus is understood, but I don't think we need a short list to do so. For the moment, I'd rather keep the field open.

Fordim Hedgethistle · 06-03-2005, 01:01 PM

The point of my strategy Firefoot is, as you rightly note, not to narrow the odds but to force the Wolves' hands...paws. If we generate a random list of three nominees that is the only way to guarantee that the Wolves have no way of influencing that list. If we try to bash out a list of three names ourselves, we can never be sure that the wolves aren't influencing that selection...in fact, we can be sure that they are influencing the selection. They have the advantage of knowledge, randomizing this first round is the only way to reduce that advantage.

At the very least, I would hope that we could move toward a short list of some kind, and that we could spread the votes around to make sure that each one stands out. I also think that we need to make people accountable for their vote (by having those who vote for an innocent be on the next short list) and to force everyone to vote (by having anyone who does not vote put on the short list).

The point is, we need to flush out the wolves from hiding within our numbers!

the phantom · 06-03-2005, 12:57 PM

(just noticed Fordy's post above my last one)

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree), but as far as the idea for protecting the seer, I think it's a good one. I do see a way that an extremely risky and devious wolf could use it to his advantage, but it would have a fairly good chance of backfiring on him, so I doubt he'd try it.

Count me in as far as the seer protection goes. Every day I will tell about my "dream" and name a person as innocent or guilty.

The Only Real Estel · 06-03-2005, 01:04 PM

While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances.

edit: although we are not supposed to be referring to this as a 'game,' I do need to say just one thing: make sure that in our thinking up ways to make it easier for the us we don't make the village more of a bunch of mathematical processes than the game that it in fact is.

Fordim Hedgethistle · 06-03-2005, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree)

I makes me antsy too since it puts some peril into our vote -- but that's the point, for it will imperil the Wolves too! The only way the Wolves can exploit it is NOT to vote for the person who is going to be killed if that person is an innocent. But if the vote is close, the wolves will not have a clear idea of who is to die until close to the end of voting -- you see where this is headed...it puts pressure on the wolves: vote early and risk being caught on a short list, or wait until the end and risk being spotted as someone who is afraid to vote...

It's not mathematically perfect or guaranteed, there's no way to develop any system that will do that, but it does mean that the wolves will have to react to what we are doing rather than simply the other way around.

I'm happy that the seer protection plan is getting some good response -- but it will only really work if the seer agrees to do it, which we won't know if he or she has done for a while!!

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 06-03-2005, 01:01 PM

To clarify: the Seer has not yet dreamed of anybody.

06-03-2005, 12:38 PM	#1
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Eomer was the first to die?! I'm shocked! (you can add me as the town crier if you wish, Eomer- as long as you are meaning a law official and not the town moper or weeper) So, another werewolf attack, eh? I heard that the two villages up the road got taken out by those beasts. There wasn't an army of them though- it was never more than a group of three. But that was enough. It seems that they did quite a bit of their damage during the day, getting the townspeople to lynch innocents. We must not allow that to happen here. But how can we avoid it this first day? Without guidance from some sort of seer it is, as short guy (can I call you that?) said, a "shot into the dark". Seeing as there is no use in logic, we must go with our guts on this day. Now, if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go take a walk and figure out what my gut is trying to tell me (if anything). __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-03-2005, 12:57 PM	#4
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	(just noticed Fordy's post above my last one) Your ideas for making a lynch list out of people who voted the day before makes me a bit antsy (because I see a way for wolves to exploit it to some degree), but as far as the idea for protecting the seer, I think it's a good one. I do see a way that an extremely risky and devious wolf could use it to his advantage, but it would have a fairly good chance of backfiring on him, so I doubt he'd try it. Count me in as far as the seer protection goes. Every day I will tell about my "dream" and name a person as innocent or guilty. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.

06-03-2005, 01:04 PM	#5
The Only Real Estel Raffish Rapscallion Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: Far from the 'Downs, it seems :-( Posts: 2,835	While I see your point on the short list, Fody, I think that I would also be more for the seer protection idea than the short list. I think anyone that votes for an innocent to be lynched is automatically elevated to the top of everyone's suspect list, though they might not announce it for everyone to hear/see. And pretty much the same goes for anyone that didn't/couldn't vote, although that's sometimes based more on the villager's 'real life' circumstances. edit: although we are not supposed to be referring to this as a 'game,' I do need to say just one thing: make sure that in our thinking up ways to make it easier for the us we don't make the village more of a bunch of mathematical processes than the game that it in fact is. Last edited by The Only Real Estel; 06-03-2005 at 01:35 PM. Reason: lots of them, and cross-posting too much not the least of them ;)

06-03-2005, 01:01 PM	#7
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	To clarify: the Seer has not yet dreamed of anybody. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

06-03-2005, 12:57 PM	#2
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Fordim, your strategy would be excellent for flushing out werewolves if it were mathematically sound. There is a ratio of roughly 4 villagers:1 werewolf; a list of three random people is more likely to include three innocent villagers than even two villagers and one werewolf. At odds of 2 villagers:1 werewolf, such a theory would be plausible, but with only about one-fifth of the people being a werewolf, the odds are pretty bad. I suppose they're bad anyway, but I'd rather be casting a vote off of a full list that is sure to include werewolves than a random short list which is probable not to have a werewolf. Your point about not reaching a consensus is understood, but I don't think we need a short list to do so. For the moment, I'd rather keep the field open.

06-03-2005, 01:01 PM	#3
Fordim Hedgethistle Gibbering Gibbet Join Date: Feb 2004 Location: Beyond cloud nine Posts: 1,844	The point of my strategy Firefoot is, as you rightly note, not to narrow the odds but to force the Wolves' hands...paws. If we generate a random list of three nominees that is the only way to guarantee that the Wolves have no way of influencing that list. If we try to bash out a list of three names ourselves, we can never be sure that the wolves aren't influencing that selection...in fact, we can be sure that they are influencing the selection. They have the advantage of knowledge, randomizing this first round is the only way to reduce that advantage. At the very least, I would hope that we could move toward a short list of some kind, and that we could spread the votes around to make sure that each one stands out. I also think that we need to make people accountable for their vote (by having those who vote for an innocent be on the next short list) and to force everyone to vote (by having anyone who does not vote put on the short list). The point is, we need to flush out the wolves from hiding within our numbers!