Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Only Real Estel]

To clarify my position on the seer protection idea:
I was in favor of it because it occurred to me that, if the werewolves killed the seer upon quickly distinguishing him/her from the lot of us (which is unfortunately very likely to happen), we need only find the villager that the seer told us was innocent. I then reasoned with myself that we could easily conquer these beasts because we would know who not to lynch. Unfortuantely, during the night I realized my blind stupidity--it's not enough for us not to lynch the villager we know to be innocent (thanks to the seer), the werewolves would simply kill him or her during the night, sending us back to square one. Although my thoughts remain a bit confused on both matters, I can see no real advantage until late in the game, and if the werewolves quickly discover the seer and kill him/her before he/she has much of a chance to provide us with information, we will have gained nothing discernable by our new method.

Therefore, since I realized that pretty much the only reason I was supporting the seer idea was a hopelessly faulty one, I am not leaning against both of Fordim's suggestions. Unless someone can give enough evidence that either of the plans would outweigh the cons that they bring with them, I don't see why we should take the risk.

In the mean time, although I will not say that this is something that Fordim has planned, we have only about two and a half hours remaining to lynch someone and no idea who to lynch! No doubt these suggestions of Fordims have served the wolves purposes in at least one way, we have been completely distracted and most likely will end up voting in a flurry at the last second and lynching an innocent villager one next to no evidence. I suggest we concentrate on discerning the wolves among us and decide on Fordim's propositions during the next day (if the majority has not already spoken).

[Kuruharan]

I suggest we concentrate on discerning the wolves among us

*Noises of agreement*

We don't really have time to do otherwise anymore.

[Oddwen]

Sorry I haven't made an appearance yet, my work has kept me from the village councils...

Egads, what a way to go, Eomer.

Reading up on what everyone has said so far, it seems that the Seer Dream Theory seems to be dangerously flawed...more so than the Short List, which just confuses me.

I have to vote now, as RL will keep me away 'til perhaps Monday. Dang, I hate being rushed.

I feel as if I should go with my gut instinct, which was right in the past though I ignored it, and vote for ++THE PHANTOM , though The Guy and Fordim also unsettle me.

Also - Where is Zali?

[Shelob]

"Oh what a tangled web we weave,
When first we practise to deceive!"
~ Sir Walter Scott

I don't really know for whom I ought to vote...as I have had little chance recently to read views and opinions carfully, and as I have little time now to read them...I feel that I must vote on less evidence and thought than most of you have given this.

From what I have quickly read though I find pros and cons with every suggestion. Every time I find myself agreeing with one view I immediatly see the problems with it...this being as it is, though not wishing to add another name to our already myriad list, I feel I ought to follow The Saucepan Man's reasoning behind voting for Evisse or SoN and therefore vote for ++EVISSE.

To explain this.

1) I worked mostly from the Sucepan Man's list of how everyone had felt about the plans (keep in mind I'm short on time. This doesn't mean I'm looking only at The Saucepan Man's arguments and ignoring all others, it just means that I could read his post (#48 according to the number in the corner) and get a summary of almost everything I had missed).
2) Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them. To me this suggests that Evisse was trying to avoid suspicion by agreeing, but still hoping to get the plans impemented so as to help herself (and her lycanthropic kin).
3) I do realize that Evisse has since stated that she was in support of a plan and not necessarily these plans...
4) The only other person who, in my mind, is suspicous enough to deserve being the one lynched is Fordim, I do not vote for him however because I feel that even the thickest of werewolves would have realized that suggesting these plans would bring them high on the list of "whom to hang" and I doubt Fordim would have gone through with it given that....also, though it's unlikely, if Fordim had some reasoning behind what has been speculated or given for suggesting these plans I would rather not see him lynched...

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

RL demands that I will be away from my computer for the next few hours, and as time is up in just 2 hours I find that I must cast the first stone...

That having been said, this first round really is all about luck and conjecture, so no matter who I vote for there is only a 3 in 14 chance of getting it right...

That having been said, I am going to cast my vote against

++SaucepanMan

insofar as he is the one person here who has done the two things which I have already stated to be the most suspicious things that could be done: 1) argue against my proposals; and 2) posted quite voluably but said nothing of real substance and committed to no particular or specific course of action.

In Saucy's last post he does two things; he attempts to undermine any attempt at developing a system to flush out werewolves and he casts suspicion over groups of people, setting them against each other -- just as though he were a wolf trying to separate the flock into smaller groups for easier managing...

So anyway, that's my vote. There is only a 22% chance that I am right. I predict, however, that there is a 100% chance of me garnering votes for having voted first -- and I will further predict that at least a few of those votes will be cast by werewolves...

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

I am, however, more suspicious about phantom's confusing behaviour. He seemed pretty adamant about supporting it, and then switched colors without warning. He did not even show any sign of convincing, as TGWBS is doing now.

I was against the proposals from the start. Fordim's arguments swayed me to neutrality for a second, but now, I find I must find his ideas faulty and vote for ++Fordim.

Several times I asked him to explain his motives, and I have been ignored. Perhaps there is an innocent explanation for this, but it is the only kind of "evidence" available to me.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Evisse

Saucy, I was in favour of a plan, as opposed to no plan.

I too am in favour of a plan, but not one which seems to greatly favour the Werewolves. Fordim's "Seer dream" idea just looks to me like something specifically designed to identify the Seer for the Werewolves' benefit. My plan is to look carefully what everyone says in reaction to what has been said before, and look at who they accused and how they voted (if I get the chance). Admittedly, that's pretty much how things have gone peviously and it could well end up in chaos and confusion. But I'd rather take my chances with that than provide a structured way of doing it which can surely only benefit the Werewolves, given their greater pre-existing knowledge.

Originally Posted by Evisse

I am not sure, however that I undestand your reasoning when you automatically suspect everyone in favour of this plan of being a werewolf.

I readily acknowledge that it's not perfect. It is quite possible that some people's initial reactions were based on a misunderstanding of its true effect. I myself was initially persuaded by Fordim's reasoning, until I thought further about it and heard some of the others' reactions.

But, thanks to Fordim having raised this "red herring", it's really all that we have to go on at the moment.

And, with the exception of The Only Real Estel, I have not seen anyone who was initially in favour of the "Seer plan" come out against it, despite the convincing arguments against it. Actually, I suppose Holbytlass changed her mind over it. But perhaps we should be more suspicious of those who have changed their mind as they have been able to see which way opinion was going ...

The more that I think about it, though, the more that I think that Fordim's proposals were specifically designed to draw our efforts away from trying to discover the Werewolves and lead us down a cul de sac. If so, it was probably planned between all three of them, which would suggest that those who continue to support it are similarly guilty.

However, there remains a possibility that Fordim's intentions were good. My inclination, therefore, would be to lynch either Evisse or SoN (who continue to support Fordim's plans despite their now obvious defects) and, if they turn out to be Werewolves, direct our gaze towards Fordim.

[The Saucepan Man]

Hmm.now I have had the benefit of seeing Fordim's vote ...

Originally Posted by Fordim Hedgethistle

... insofar as he is the one person here who has done the two things which I have already stated to be the most suspicious things that could be done: 1) argue against my proposals; and 2) posted quite voluably but said nothing of real substance and committed to no particular or specific course of action.

1) I have explained why I believe them to be defective (as have many others);
2) Untrue. My proposed course of action was to look at people's reactions to your proposals and, in particular, those who sought to support them.

Now I am in a quandry. Do I vote for Fordim who I suspect the most, despite that this might appear simply to be a knee-jerk reaction to him voting for me? Or do I follow my previous strategy and vote for Evisse or SoN?

I have time. I will wait for further reactions ...

[Kuruharan]

Hmm, now we have an interesting situation.

Fordim accuses Saucepan Man.

TGWBS accuses Fordim.

Saucepan Man ignores the both of them and points at two totally different people.

I'm inclined to agree with Saucepan Man, Evisse makes me nervous.

We have to ask ourselves, which death will provide the most information. I'm suspicious of both Fordim and Saucepan Man (although at the moment I don't think both of them are werewolves).

Initially I'd have said kill Fordim. If he's a werewolf well and good we can kill those who supported him. If Fordim is not a werewolf we'll pacify his spirit by tossing Saucepan Man into that nearby volcano (points to nearby volcano that nobody noticed before).

However, perhaps Saucepan Man has created a reasonable compromise. Kill one of the people who supported The Plan as a test of Fordim's loyalty (and Evisse makes me nervous...)

[Firefoot]

I was against the proposals from the start. Fordim's arguments swayed me to neutrality for a second,

I know, sorry if I was unclear. Using you as an example would have been for the opposite; my point was that you were against it, and then you commented that you would consider Fordim's plan given proper reasoning, you didn't just suddenly say you were on his side, which is what phantom did, just going in the other direction.

[Evisse the Blue]

I ask of you, lest chaos ensues again, to not confuse simplicity, ignorance even, with guilt. I fear now indeed that this has been a cleverly orchestrated scheme from start to finish; but hopefully it is not too late to make a right decision for our village.

Why exactly do I make you nervous, Kuruharan? Is it the smell of fish? Is it my uncommonly blue eyes? To tell the truth, you're the one making me nervous. So far, you've assumed the role of 'spectator', analyzing the situation seemingly in an objective manner, and taking no sides whatsoever, expecting, no doubt, to see which side would come out more favourably. I have said before this behaviour looks most suspicious to me.
As for my wrongdoings, if I regret anything in my past actions, is my hastiness in posting without analizing the matter thoroughly. Fordim's proposal seemed good for the villagers at the time. Even after the flaws were pointed out, changing sides would have looked - and it still looks to me too much like duplicitary behaviour. In my last post, I did not argue in favour of the theory and in my second post, I granted the theory the benefit of the doubt because it was indeed a well thought one, given that even a cunning one like the phantom had been swayed into accepting it on the spot, ignoring the obvious shortcomings that even I had foreseen at the time. Which by the way makes him suspect number 1 on my list, closely followed by Kuru.
Don't misunderstand me, for the one who sits on number 3 on my list of suspects is Fordim, since his refusal to further defend his theory and hasty vote against SPM, whose accusations I strongly deny, but do not wish for the time being to return his gesture and suspect him of being a werewolf. Closely folowed by SoN, though we have not much against him except his silence following his agreement of Fordim's theory.

EDIT: Crossposted with the ones above me - So far it seems the votes are as scattered as anyone would want them...But before I vote myself, I would like to hear some explanations from the ones who were accused, particularly the phantom and SoN

[Kuruharan]

lest chaos ensues again

You're too late. All these people with their delightfully non-retractable votes are refusing to vote for the same people.

Is it my uncommonly blue eyes?

My eyes are blue too, I'll have you know. Well, actually, they are more of a blue-grey.

Anyway...

For reasons that I can't explain (hint-hint) the phantom and myself are actually the least likely to be werewolves. Not that it isn't possible, but just a glance at the odds should tell you to look elsewhere first. At this moment we do have a few DAYS to spare.

And now we come back to Evisse who initially supported The Plan and now does some hasty reversal.

ignoring the obvious shortcomings that even I had foreseen at the time.

Hmmm...

And notice this also...

for the one who sits on number 3 on my list of suspects is Fordim

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.

Then, of course, there are the ridiculous charges she's tossing at me! I'll have you know I'm completely innocent!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

For reasons that I can't explain (hint-hint) the phantom and myself are actually the least likely to be werewolves. Not that it isn't possible, but just a glance at the odds should tell you to look elsewhere first. At this moment we do have a few DAYS to spare.

No, there is an equal probability that anyone can be a werewolf. Just as there is an equal probability that anyone could be the seer.

[Kuruharan]

No, there is an equal probability that anyone can be a werewolf.

In this village. Sequentially...err, not so much.

[the guy who be short]

I ask people who have not yet voted to reconsider Fordim, who seems for some reason to have been sidelined.

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

One final thing, Fordim. Why did you decide to post here instead of in the Town Hall [Werewolf 1] where all questions concerning our democracy [game structure] should go? Or are you suggesting that we should simply use this system unofficially?

2:03pm

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I would like Fordim to address all these issues, please, as well as the timing and place of his posting which I inquired about in an earlier post

2:30pm

Two very clear challenges to Fordim's ideas. Then Fordim appears at 3:54pm, just one and a half hours, or six posts, after me. The challenges are completely ignored, an accusation is made, and he disappears.
Why would he ignore two very clear, and to me, very important, challenges?

[Evisse the Blue]

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.

My action has been satisfactorily explained by his refusal to back his theory, which I think everyone was expecting at the time. Instead, neither taking it back, nor exposing it for the werewolf-magnet which it was later assumed (mind you, not surely proven) to be - left after casting a vote at the one who used his theory to start making accusations (SPM). This looks suspicious, but less suspicious than your behaviour of not specifically reacting for or against something.
And yes, let's not forget the equal probabilities of anyone being anything in this game.

[The Only Real Estel]

OPB SpM:

And, with the exception of The Only Real Estel, I have not seen anyone who was initially in favor of the "Seer plan" come out against it, despite the convincing arguments against it. Actually, I suppose Holbytlass changed her mind over it. But perhaps we should be more suspicious of those who have changed their mind as they have been able to see which way opinion was going ...

It did occur to me that it would probably seem suspicious for me to 'change' my opinion on the seer matter only after SpM implicated me as somewhat suspicious to him. Unfortunately, it couldn't be helped. After initial down-time in which I had the chance to voice my views several times, the day got busy fast--and I had no time to really dedicate myself to picking apart Fordim's proposed plan. It was only after some thinking in the quite confines of my bed that I realized how blatantly absurd my reasoning for the seer idea working was, and how easily the wolves could get past it. That left me with no reason to stick by the plan, other than other villagers seeing it as fickle, and that wasn't enough of a reason for me. The fact that SpM posted his suspicions of me inbetween posting times for me cannot be helped.

So far the voting has been sporadic, as expected. Fordim seems a logical choice, but if he would turn out to be innocent I would hate to have hung him because he tried to help us (since that's what it would boil down to). If I was convinced of Fordy's plan I should be suspicious of Saucey, TGWBS, and the phantom. Unfortunately, I am not sure of his plan, so I'm not sure whether to be suspicious of any of them. And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day. I'm not vouching for him (as I have repeated several times during this DAY about different characters), but I am putting something out there that I have been thinking on for quite awhile. As to SoN's vote of me, I can't speak to that because he gave no reasons besides his gut feelings (pretty much), and I'm not going to try to argue anyone out of their gut feeling.

As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kuru

And now we come back to Evisse who initially supported The Plan and now does some hasty reversal.

Yes, I noticed that too, although it was hedged in such a way as to not look like too much of a reversal.

Originally Posted by Kuru

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.

Again, the same point occurred to me. It seems a good Werewolf plan to look like you are suspicious of the other Werewolves, without actually promoting them as prime suspects.

I think that I shall stick with my plan of concentrating on those who supported Fordim's proposals. So, Evisse or SoN? Well, if the ploy was pre-planned, I would expect the "supporting" Werewolves to be forthright in their support for the proposals, while suitably hedging their comments with caveats which they could later use to distance themselves from the proposals. Which is precisely what Evisse did (and SoN did not) do.

In fact Evisse seems to be doing a lot of hedging ...

I still have time, but I have pretty much narrowed my vote down to her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Evisse

And yes, let's not forget the equal probabilities of anyone being anything in this game.

This is one point where I do agree with Evisse. Previous history means nothing in this game, one way or the other.

Although I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this:

And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.

However, the phantom has remained suspiciously quiet recently ...

[the phantom]

Morm- you ask why I was for the plan and then against it? Isn't it obvious? The seer plan seems carefully crafted to help the wolves and if I would've done my extremely strong anit-plan post immediately I doubt a single person would've had the guts to go along with it. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I believe that my words against the plan carry an awful lot of weight- enough to discourage most people from buying into it. By defending it, I was attempting to provide the wolves with some cover- in other words, make the wolves feel as if they could support it and not look like they were alone and conspicuous. They would think "Hey, the phantom is supporting it- we can go ahead and do it too."

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for.

[mormegil]

As for myself I am not going to vote for Fordim today. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he is innocent and started this discussion simply to give us opportunity to weigh people's reactions.

Based on that as I previously stated the one I can find the most "evidence" on, based on his reaction, is the phantom. He is far too clever to not catch the flaws in Fordim's system initially. He initially agrees with it in a very short post (uncharacteristic) and then in a rather long post explains why he is against it after the majority of people posting on the idea are opposed to it. It seems that he's quickly trying to side with the majority and actually appear to be championing the cause. A good way to try and cover guilt I say.

It's always risky to cast a stone in this round, but it must be done. If we vote for an innocent, and they are lynched, suspicion will be cast on those that vote for him/her.

I therefore will be voting for ++THE PHANTOM and ask that others look at the limited shreds of evidence that we have and vote how they best determine. I think we need to watch SoN and Fordim a bit, however I don't believe they have the strongest evidence against them, albeit weak evidence against the phantom.

[Holbytlass]

Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.
My approach has been this, there are two who have said nothing Oddwen and Azaleia. And so, by the peril of numbers again, 3 out of 5 flips of a coin.....

++azaleia
I'm sure I'll be on someone's short list.

[Son of Númenor]

You could lynch me, true enough, but you'd not only be losing an innocent villager -- you'd be losing the man who fixes yer houses!

I'm not a man of numbers; I supported Mr. Hedgethistle's idea only because it seems clear based on the tales of recent villages that another system needs to be worked out for finding 'wolves. At the very least, a new system could throw their lot off balance, mathematistry and such aside.

My grandpappy always said, "He's a fool as tries to find a werewolf among villagers on the first day of voting," or something of that nature. We've naught to go on but the most meager suspicions. While at the moment I find myself suspicious of The Saucepan Man more than any other villager, I don't want to be too hasty, as lynching him prematurely'd rid us of a man with great powers of deduction, who could be of considerable use down the road if he's innocent; and then there's his fine brew to consider.

I think we ought to hang ++The Only Real Estel. I'd be foolish to try and explain the decision beyond saying that his posts don't sit right with me and I don't know why. Only time'll tell if I'm right.