Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Kuruharan]

lest chaos ensues again

You're too late. All these people with their delightfully non-retractable votes are refusing to vote for the same people.

Is it my uncommonly blue eyes?

My eyes are blue too, I'll have you know. Well, actually, they are more of a blue-grey.

Anyway...

For reasons that I can't explain (hint-hint) the phantom and myself are actually the least likely to be werewolves. Not that it isn't possible, but just a glance at the odds should tell you to look elsewhere first. At this moment we do have a few DAYS to spare.

And now we come back to Evisse who initially supported The Plan and now does some hasty reversal.

ignoring the obvious shortcomings that even I had foreseen at the time.

Hmmm...

And notice this also...

for the one who sits on number 3 on my list of suspects is Fordim

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.

Then, of course, there are the ridiculous charges she's tossing at me! I'll have you know I'm completely innocent!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

For reasons that I can't explain (hint-hint) the phantom and myself are actually the least likely to be werewolves. Not that it isn't possible, but just a glance at the odds should tell you to look elsewhere first. At this moment we do have a few DAYS to spare.

No, there is an equal probability that anyone can be a werewolf. Just as there is an equal probability that anyone could be the seer.

[Kuruharan]

No, there is an equal probability that anyone can be a werewolf.

In this village. Sequentially...err, not so much.

[Firefoot]

Just for clarity, the votes so far are:

Saucepan Man - 1 (Fordim)
Fordim - 1 (TGWBS)
phantom - 2 (mormegil, Oddwen)
Azaelia - 1 (Holbytlass)
Only Real Estel - 1 (SoN)
Evisse - 1 (Shelob)

That leaves 10 votes possible left. It seems likely enough that there could be a tie, resulting in two lynchings.

Heading my suspicion list at the moment are Fordim, phantom, Evisse, and SoN, for reasons already stated either by myself or others. I'm still not sure who I will vote for, though I think I may be leaning towards Fordim, mostly for his elusions of TGWBS's direct questions. Evisse is my second choice at the moment, for the reasons SpM outlined three posts above.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Just for clarity, the votes so far are:

Saucepan Man - 1 (Fordim)
Fordim - 1 (TGWBS)
phantom - 2 (mormegil, Oddwen)
Azaelia - 1 (Holbytlass)
Only Real Estel - 1 (SoN)
Evisse - 1 (Shelob)

That leaves 10 votes possible left. It seems likely enough that there could be a tie, resulting in two lynchings.

According to my calculation I think there is only 7 votes left. I could be wrong but 7 votes cast and 14 villagers.

[the guy who be short]

Four votes are left.
In the interests of balance, I ask that the remaining villagers are not swayed by numbers. Vote for who you believe to be guilty.

Edit: Ah, it appears Evisse already stated what I had said.
Three votes left. Use them wisely.

[Kuruharan]

I'm working on my post. It is just taking me awhile because I've got a lot of ground to cover.

I'd like to ask that (seeing as how I'm one of the few voices attempting to speak in favor of another idea than the currently popular one) the deluge of voting not start until I have a chance to finish.

I'd also like to note that nobody has really gone to the bother to answer my question yet.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

That leaves 10 votes possible left.

Surely you mean 7? Ooer, perhaps I should not be trusting your instincts on mathematical matters ...

[The Saucepan Man]

Time moves on. I want my vote to count, and I am not so sure that I want to see the phantom hanged - not on the current state of the evidence anyway.

So I will cast my vote for:

++ EVISSE THE BLUE

I have explained my reasoning at length previously.

[Kuruharan]

Previous history means nothing in this game, one way or the other.

You misunderstand. History means nothing. Odds should be considered.

Oh well. Enough of that blather.

I vote for ++ EVISSE THE BLUE. If this is right we should begin glaring very hard at Fordim.

[The Saucepan Man]

I had not seen Evisse's vote before I cast mine. But it merely reinforces me in my view. Surely a Werewolf is more likely to vote for the one innocent who is attracting as many votes (or potential votes) as she is.

Of course, there is no certainty that the phantom is innocent. But, if we lynch Evisse and she is guilty, that would now speak in his favour.

Alas, there is similarly no certainty that Evisse is guilty. But she is the person that I suspect the most on the basis of the first day's proceedings. Hence my vote.

[Kuruharan]

So it would appear that I am under more suspicion than he: which makes his comments in post 101 illuminating:

Quote:
This is a rather strange, callous, and self-serving thing to say in this situation. It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.


Seems to me that we may have quite an example of attempted “herd leading”…

Yeah, but the suspicion you've brought on yourself is your own fault.

The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.

My suspicions of The Saucepan Man have been growing rapidly. He accuses me, I speak my bit, and he suddenly goes suspicious quiet even though he has still been around. It is almost as if he and his cronies said, "Oh crap! When we lynch Kuruharan everyone will see that he was innocent! Those of us who pushed for his death are going to look really bad! We've got to shut up for a bit and hope somebody else takes the bait!"

At the moment I'm also inclined to think that Firefoot may be among those cronies.

I'm also still suspicious of Fordim.

[Holbytlass]

swimming-haha, we wolves like to keep our coats clean. Actually my husband and children brought back supplies for the shop.

What I find disturbing is Kuru's saying here...

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

The only reason why people would suspect me is A) they are a werewolf and they think they can hang me more easily than some others or B) they are working off of sheer unreasoning gut instinct without any basis in reality other than stuff they are not supposed to be paying attention to.

And Phantom's saying about future seers don't vote for me on the first day and other sayings of his that Mormegil pointed out (post109). They both sound very pompous, it reminds me of the theives in The Emperor's New Clothes...you know, they said if a person couldn't see the clothes, that person was stupid. It seems to me Kuru and Phantom are trying to scare people into not voting for them under threat that the voters come off looking like wolves.

[Evisse the Blue]

What you so cleverly call hedging, Saucy, I call 'defending myself with the certainty of my innocence.' I am beginning to doubt you, although at the beginning I did not, just because you appear (intentionally?) blind to what I have been saying.
In the beginning, there was a plan and that plan was good. Then the plan was bad, and suddenly everyone in favour of it was on the suspect list. Weirdly enough how this resembles a political tactic (stress on 'tactic'). Changing sides in the middle of the debate, just as you get wind of the unpopularity of an idea looks very much like wolfish sneaky behaviour to me. And this is exactly what the phantom has done, without showing up then to see where the debate would lead...perhaps being certain that he had secured a good cover for himself.
Despite the 'hedging' you guys keep accusing me of, I have been, since I saw his post, constantly suspicious of the phantom.
And now, seeing as so very little time is left for us to come to a decision, I shall cast my vote for ++the phantom

PS: Shelob, you say:

Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them.

Without getting into the theory of relativity and probabilities, which I expect everyone had enough of today , any plan is flawed, no theory to be put in practice is perfect or risk free. And a seemingly perfect utopia is the most dangerous of all theories. In any case, the fact that I was willing to test Fordim's theory should speak for my optimism and open-mindness, not for my guilt.

[the guy who be short]

I ask people who have not yet voted to reconsider Fordim, who seems for some reason to have been sidelined.

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

One final thing, Fordim. Why did you decide to post here instead of in the Town Hall [Werewolf 1] where all questions concerning our democracy [game structure] should go? Or are you suggesting that we should simply use this system unofficially?

2:03pm

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

I would like Fordim to address all these issues, please, as well as the timing and place of his posting which I inquired about in an earlier post

2:30pm

Two very clear challenges to Fordim's ideas. Then Fordim appears at 3:54pm, just one and a half hours, or six posts, after me. The challenges are completely ignored, an accusation is made, and he disappears.
Why would he ignore two very clear, and to me, very important, challenges?

[Evisse the Blue]

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.

My action has been satisfactorily explained by his refusal to back his theory, which I think everyone was expecting at the time. Instead, neither taking it back, nor exposing it for the werewolf-magnet which it was later assumed (mind you, not surely proven) to be - left after casting a vote at the one who used his theory to start making accusations (SPM). This looks suspicious, but less suspicious than your behaviour of not specifically reacting for or against something.
And yes, let's not forget the equal probabilities of anyone being anything in this game.

[The Only Real Estel]

OPB SpM:

And, with the exception of The Only Real Estel, I have not seen anyone who was initially in favor of the "Seer plan" come out against it, despite the convincing arguments against it. Actually, I suppose Holbytlass changed her mind over it. But perhaps we should be more suspicious of those who have changed their mind as they have been able to see which way opinion was going ...

It did occur to me that it would probably seem suspicious for me to 'change' my opinion on the seer matter only after SpM implicated me as somewhat suspicious to him. Unfortunately, it couldn't be helped. After initial down-time in which I had the chance to voice my views several times, the day got busy fast--and I had no time to really dedicate myself to picking apart Fordim's proposed plan. It was only after some thinking in the quite confines of my bed that I realized how blatantly absurd my reasoning for the seer idea working was, and how easily the wolves could get past it. That left me with no reason to stick by the plan, other than other villagers seeing it as fickle, and that wasn't enough of a reason for me. The fact that SpM posted his suspicions of me inbetween posting times for me cannot be helped.

So far the voting has been sporadic, as expected. Fordim seems a logical choice, but if he would turn out to be innocent I would hate to have hung him because he tried to help us (since that's what it would boil down to). If I was convinced of Fordy's plan I should be suspicious of Saucey, TGWBS, and the phantom. Unfortunately, I am not sure of his plan, so I'm not sure whether to be suspicious of any of them. And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day. I'm not vouching for him (as I have repeated several times during this DAY about different characters), but I am putting something out there that I have been thinking on for quite awhile. As to SoN's vote of me, I can't speak to that because he gave no reasons besides his gut feelings (pretty much), and I'm not going to try to argue anyone out of their gut feeling.

As far as votes go I will say that I am leaning toward's Saucepan's theory.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kuru

And now we come back to Evisse who initially supported The Plan and now does some hasty reversal.

Yes, I noticed that too, although it was hedged in such a way as to not look like too much of a reversal.

Originally Posted by Kuru

...pointing the finger at Fordim in such a way as to reduce his profile while providing some cover for herself.

Again, the same point occurred to me. It seems a good Werewolf plan to look like you are suspicious of the other Werewolves, without actually promoting them as prime suspects.

I think that I shall stick with my plan of concentrating on those who supported Fordim's proposals. So, Evisse or SoN? Well, if the ploy was pre-planned, I would expect the "supporting" Werewolves to be forthright in their support for the proposals, while suitably hedging their comments with caveats which they could later use to distance themselves from the proposals. Which is precisely what Evisse did (and SoN did not) do.

In fact Evisse seems to be doing a lot of hedging ...

I still have time, but I have pretty much narrowed my vote down to her.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Evisse

And yes, let's not forget the equal probabilities of anyone being anything in this game.

This is one point where I do agree with Evisse. Previous history means nothing in this game, one way or the other.

Although I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this:

And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.

However, the phantom has remained suspiciously quiet recently ...

[the phantom]

Morm- you ask why I was for the plan and then against it? Isn't it obvious? The seer plan seems carefully crafted to help the wolves and if I would've done my extremely strong anit-plan post immediately I doubt a single person would've had the guts to go along with it. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I believe that my words against the plan carry an awful lot of weight- enough to discourage most people from buying into it. By defending it, I was attempting to provide the wolves with some cover- in other words, make the wolves feel as if they could support it and not look like they were alone and conspicuous. They would think "Hey, the phantom is supporting it- we can go ahead and do it too."

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

If I'm wrong, perhaps I'll go after Morm next. I don't much like being voted for.

[Evisse the Blue]

*tosses a raw fish in the direction of the phantom*

How convenient of you to appear precisely now, phantom.

If I am to be lynched I shall of course meet my unfortunate demise with dignity, despite my low bearing, but the village shall be none the better for it. I can only be glad for those who did not vote for me as they will be the only ones with a clear conscience after this.

[The Saucepan Man]

They would think "Hey, the phantom is supporting it- we can go ahead and do it too."

The amazing thing is that it is just like the phantom to think like this ...

I would point out that there is a dreadful danger, as the votes currently stand, for any Werewolf who has not yet voted to ensure that two Villagers get lynched, one of whom is almost certain to be innocent. Please, let's try to ensure that doesn't happen ...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

The amazing thing is that it is just like the phantom to think like this ...

But I would ask isn't it also like the phantom to know that he could say that and we would believe that was his intention thus giving him cover. He plans not only the next move but the move after that.

And the phantom has also said that he may go for me next round, which is fine, but to do so because I voted for him seems paltry and unreasonable. I have said that we ought to be suspicious of all but to threaten to go after me based on no evidence given seems petty and suspicious even more.

[Firefoot]

Seven, ten, seven-tenths, same thing...

I'm not really convinced of the guilt of either phantom or Evisse, though I am suspicious.

I could vote for Evisse; Evisse would be hung almost undoubtedly since Azaelia has yet to show her face.

I could vote for phantom; either both Evisse and phantom would be hung or it could still be either/or, depending on the final vote.

I could vote for Fordim and have virtually no effect on the voting whatsoever.

Umm...

++Fordim - he is the one who I am most suspicious of, and therefore cast my vote at the risk of seeming dispassionate about the end result.

Oh, and one interesting thing I noticed: we're at 90-something posts, which is only about 20 fewer posts than were in the entire 2nd game...

[the guy who be short]

Game? what do you mean, lass?
Ooh, times up.

[Evisse the Blue]

Guys and gals, if you see me laughing on the way to the hanging spot, it's because I have a very weird sense of humour.
But some of you at least are sure to cry.

[The Only Real Estel]

I am torn between a couple of different opinions at the moment. If we assume that Fordim's plan is has been to confuse us or provide the werewolves with an easier means of winning the game, then I should be following Saucey's reasoning and vote for Evisse, SoN, or Fordim. The most logical knee-jerk reaction would be for me to vote fore SoN because he voted for me. However, I do not see how this would help things because not only do I try not to hold gut feelings against people, I am not sure of his guilt. But since I am not sure of any one person's guilt it would seem that my obligation to the village is to make sure that one villager gets lynched and not two (I won't even go into what the odds would be that we could possibly score a double wolf-lynching, so I see no reason to lynch two villagers).

My vote goes to ++ Evisse.
If you are indeed innocent my attention will turn to SpM & tp.

edit: I said 'my' suspicions. I hope that if I do not last the night all of your suspicions will turn toward SpM and the phantom and those two will be examined throughly. I still do not overly suspect them, but if Evisse is in fact innocent, they start to rise on my very own 'short list'.