Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[mormegil]

As promised I would begin to explain my suspicions of who and why. My main suspicion has been and currently remains the phantom. What he has said and done just doesn’t sit right with me and I hope to be able to explain why.

He was quick to agree with Fordim’s idea and very uncharacteristically give little explanation. Now my position on Fordim’s plan is well known so I wish not to rehash that here. Suffice it to say that currently I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that he meant it to stir up conversation.

In defending the plan, the phantom uses my name as an example (it could well have been anyone else though) and says this

In other words, I could start off tomorrow by saying "I dreamed that Mormegil was a wolf", but then proceed to spend most of my efforts attacking Saucy and actually vote for him. On the other hand, I could go after Mormegil full force as if I knew I was correct. You see, there are still ways for a seer to stand a bit apart.

Then is his notorious flip-flop post he arrogantly declares that a villager naming a wolf would be near suicide.

If everyone was to have a "dream" tonight, what would happen tomorrow? A non-werewolf would have a 25% chance of correctly naming a werewolf. In other words, if a villager says "I had a dream, and person X is a wolf" it is 75% likely that their choice would be wrong, and the wolves would obviously know if they were wrong and rule that person out as the seer. That means that making a random werewolf accusation would greatly serve the wolves. If all nine villagers said "Person X is a werewolf", then probability says that the wolves would then immediately be able to rule out 6 or 7 of us as the seer, leaving them with only 2 or 3 candidates. This would be suicide for the village.

Has no one else noticed this?

I think this can illustrate how large of a flip-flop he made and that he himself asked does anyone else not see this? I ask you phantom did you not see this? Also the phantom is claiming that he suspects Fordim

So, does anyone not suspect Fordim? He presented a plan to quickly weed out the seer and his primary enemy died last night.

Now- don't give me the "too obvious" argument. It could work both ways. Fordim possibly figured he could do the obvious and get away with it because it was so obvious. It makes sense to me.

If he suspects Fordim how can we buy into his defense that by agreeing with Fordim’s plan he was opening a door for the wolves to agree because the illustrious phantom has agreed, therefore it must be okay. The phantom knew that this plan would benefit the wolves and quickly agreed to it hoping to get innocents to agree as well. It’s asinine to assume the phantom agreed with it just because he thought he could lure the werewolves into agreeing when he himself suspects the author of the idea.

I see a possible (mind you I still don't think Fordim is innocent) framing attempt gone awry and now he is desperately trying to redirect guilt and suspicion.

I understand why he voted for Evisse. First, because he knew her to be innocent and saw and easy target to lynch. Second to protect himself but he didn’t give any explanation as to why he voted for her. Not even I’m voting in agreement to what SpM has said. To not give some sort of backing to something he does is not like the phantom at all.

And finally I must say,

EVERYONE- Don't lynch me. Only the wolves would benefit from that.

I will vote for + + Evisse.

Well I must say that the wolves have benefited a great deal more from her death than they would yours.

I have other suspicions that are on my list though they have been discussed by others.

They are Kuruharan, Fordim, Shelob and Son of Numenor top my list though other are near such as Saucepan Man(mainly for his spearheading the “lynch Evisse” initiative). And Azaleia due to her silence.