Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Kuruharan]

Another thing that I gleaned from my review is that there are three people who have participated in our daytime discussions without making many accusations.

That is because you are my primary suspect. We should only lynch one per day. Why cause distraction by naming other names?

Now, I know that I am innocent and (as I have said)

Odd. So do I!

To implicate the two of us seems a wolfish strategy to me.

Yes, accusing someone who is innocent is perfect werewolf strategy! You have got that part down.

The phantom has...also accused me, an innocent and prime lynching suspect.

Funny. I think this is why he may be in the clear (maybe).

Well, that’s the current state of my thinking. It may change, but today I think that we should be looking most closely at Kuru, Shelob, Holbytlass and SoN. Out of that list, it would not surpise me if at least two are Werewolves. The best Werewolf ploy, it seems to me, is to keep posting without drawing too much attention to yourself. All four on my list seem to have followed that strategy (although Kuru has “broken cover” slightly today - perhaps forced by his vote for Evisse and the subsequent comment).

You are going to be feeling soooo silly if you get me lynched. I'm beginning to suspect that your buddies have already written you off as lost after today and have told you to try and get rid of me anyway as they stay in cover (or at least try to).

Does that give a free ride for those who are the movers and 'leaders' of arguments even if they be wolves? So now blame it on the ones who can't keep up with the legal blather.

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

It is a virtual certainty that I am going to vote against the Saucepan Man, but I'm going to wait just a little bit to see if anything else interesting turns up.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. )

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

No. The idea there was to make sure that nobody gets forgotten in the confusion. You want to pay attention to everyone, the second people as well as the first. The most inconspicuous vote made is usually like the second or third in the early days.

(In a way I'm almost hoping I do get lynched. That will prove what I've been saying the whole time and hopefully will get some werewolves out of cover. )

Oh. Thank you for clearing that up. I see now what you mean. Also, don't wish for things, even in jest. I mean that as advice NOT a threat.

[The Only Real Estel]

First of all, I feel the need to not only re-explain my absence (to make sure everyone caught it), but also defend myself. Some suspicions have been cast in the direction of those who have been inactive so I must say that I am sorry that I was not able to post sooner, but I did give notice on the village message board (werewolf 1) that I wouldn’t be able to post much if any today.
Now, for the defending I think I need to do.

Originally posted by Firefoot:

Looking at Fordim's lists, I think that the people who should really be looked at are the Only Real Estel and Shelob: the two people who voted for Evisse (the only known innocent, whatever Fordim says of himself), and did not work against Fordim's plan, which seemingly would benefit the wolves.

Although Firefoot partially bases her suspicion of SoN on his seemingly evidence-less accusation of me, she does go on to say that she at least somewhat suspects Shelob & I. But I must correct you. At first I was for part of Fordim’s plan (as were almost all of the villagers), but I changed my standing once I noticed the stupendous errors of my reasoning (look back at my comments on this matter in the past to see more about this). So to say that I voted for Evisse and did not oppose Fordim’s plan is not right. What is right is that I voted for Evisse, which I will now explain. My gut feeling was most certainly not Evisse, I was going to vote for the phantom, but allowed my head to talk me out of it until it was to late & I found myself forced to vote for Evisse because the vote count was 4 for Evisse and 3 for phantom. Obviously that problem with this vote count is that any werewolf could swoop in at the last second & lynch two villagers – this I obviously could not be responsible for letting happen. After waiting to see if I could catch a wolf trying to tie the vote, I then cast my vote at the last possible second for Evisse. Unfortunately, she turned out to be the very thing that we had spent most of our debate time arguing about how to protect (the seer, or course!). Fortunately, my vote was not the deciding factor, so I didn’t feel as badly for her as I would have if I would’ve broken a tie between the phantom & her. Four to three would’ve gotten her hung just as badly if I had not voted at all.

Both originally posted by SpM:

The remaining person to vote for Evisse was The Only Real Estel. But he voted at a time when he could have acheived a double-lynching (the phantom and Evisse). So, unless the phantom is a Werewolf, that speaks in his favour. In other words, it seems likely that if the phantom is innocent, then TORE probably is too. Conversely, if TORE is a Werewolf, then the phantom is likely also to be one.

And, if the phantom is innocent, I am pretty sure that TORE is to, on the basis of the reasoning that I explained earlier (a Werewolf TORE could have achieved a double-lynching by voting for the phantom yesterday).

A good observation, but you have left out one possibility. Put simply it is this: Since I was sure of neither phantom’s guilt, nor Evisse’s, I was trying to make sure that two innocent villagers did not get lynched at the same time. Using this logic (which was my motivation for what I did), if phantom turns out to be guilty, that doesn’t at all mean that I am guilty as well.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I can see quite well how my actions seem suspicious, SpM ... I am trying to be more vocal...see, even before you posted I said for all to see that I thought Fordim was innocent.

Well, I didn't see your comments on Fordim before I posted. I must admit that they alleviate my suspicions of you somewhat.

But I remain very suspicious of those who seem reluctant to make their thoughts on who might be the Werewolves known. And you and Shelob most certainly fall into that category. Shelob really does concern me, though, with a number of posts which, despite their length, do little do advance our search for the Werwolves.

But Kuru seems determined to weedle his way to the top of my suspect list at the moment. Not only does he continue to accuse me (with very little in the way of evidence, I might add), but methinks he doth protest his innocence rather too much ...

What is your evidence against me Kuru? The fact that I voted against Evisse (thanks largely to you) and then, today, posted and then did not post again for a while? That's all it seems to consist of as far as I can see.

[Shelob]

"It had a "this is a joke" sign. Didn't you see that the comment was followed by-> " ~Phantom

I saw the smiley...but it didn't register in my mind until the above comment...see what I mean about missing those signs?

Saucepan Man...this will be somewhat rushed as I am tired and need to go to sleep as I have school tomorrow, but if you want a list not of my reasons for suspicion but for a straight forward list which says whether I think a person to be a "Werewolf", an "Innocent", an "Unsure", or a mix I'll give you one...it's got very brief explanations (if any) because it's well past 11...but if it will reassure you regardless...

Azaelia of Willowbottom--"Unsure"
Firefoot--"Innocent", only one who hasn't really been pulled into anyone's theories...open to change.
Fordim Hedgethistle--"Unsure", leaning towards "Innocent"
Holbytlass--"Unsure", leaning towards "Werewolf"
Kuruharan--leaning towards "Werewolf", too suspicous to be an 'unsure', not suspicious enough to be a full "werewolf"
mormegil--"Unsure", with potential to lean towards 'werewolf'
Oddwen--"Unsure", as with Azaelia
Shelob--"Innocent"
Son of Numenor--Keep forgetting he's playing...umm..."Unsure" due to lack of real thought...
The Only Real Estel--leaning towards "Werewolf", closer to 'unsure' than the others in this position.
the phantom--leaning towards "Werewolf", in much the same boat as Kuru...for slightly different reasons
The Saucepan Man--leaning towards "Werewolf", kinda like with Kuru and Phantom...

Is this flexible? Yes. Does it explain my habit of listing thoughts and not names? No, but that comes from my nature of secondguessing everything I think, and of a strong dislike of announcing my opinions to the world. Will I vote now based on this? No. It's too late and since I know I'll be back again in the morning I would rather wait (ie: sleep) and see what others had to say before casting my vote...with luck we'll hear from those whom have not spoken much, or at all...

[The Only Real Estel]

First of all: I know this is long, but please bear with it.

Now for a bit of question-raising. Although I appreciate SpM's seeming defense of me I still have to bring something up. Originally I was hung up with how I should be voting if Fordim's side was right or how I should vote if Saucepan's side is right. I now wonder, what if both of their sides are wrong? I have gotten two theories into my head that I cannot get out - Saucepan Man, phantom, & SoN are wolves; or Saucepan Man, Fordim, & SoN are wolves. First I will give the condensed version of my reasoning for Sauce/phantom/SoN. I'm going to try to explain how I think they could've worked together so far/how they might in the future.

First the three wolves spotted some pretty major flaws in Fordim's plan (remember we are considering Fordim innocent for the time being) and decided that they could easily use those problems to paint him as the bad guy - they also saw that if they could draw the villagers away from Fordim's plan, there was a fairly good chance that they could catch the seer hanging around in defense of it (let's face it, protection would be attractive to a seer and this plan does offer some protection, it just came at to great a risk for me to implement with a clear conscience). Even if any villagers that the wolves tried to convince us to lynch/killed themselves were not the seer, the wolves could still end up with several innocents hung, so it would be a win-win situation well worth any risks for the trio.

First, they all acted for the plan, then Sauce & tp pulled out after 'just spotting' flaws in the plan (hoping to paint themselves as protectors of the innocent villagers?). SoM stayed behind so that they could paint a trio of wolves (Fordim, SoM, & the seer (they hoped)). When only three remained, SpM suggested this:

The more that I think about it, though, the more that I think that Fordim's proposals were specifically designed to draw our efforts away from trying to discover the Werewolves and lead us down a cul de sac. If so, it was probably planned between all three of them, which would suggest that those who continue to support it are similarly guilty

Now this does not seem like very sound logic. Were Fordim a wolf, I doubt that he would have let all three wolves be tied together so easily, & I'm not entirely sure that SpM was really sold into his own logic, I doubt that he really thought that Fordim would be so irrational. Thise could simply have been a ploy to get a great mind (Fordim) lynched along with the seer (they hoped), while they killed others during the night - and getting both Fordim and the seer would only cost them a max of one wolf. And it might be possible that after hanging two innocents (both Fordim & Evisse), they might've tried to proclaim their strategy a dud & get out of it without having to hang one of their one at all.

Anyway, when there were just three wolves left, SpM suggested that Fordim, Evisse, & SoN were most likely the werewolves, but he suggested we start the lynching with Evisse because of her 'hedging'. Now, it did seem like Evisse was being cryptic, but now we know why. Perhaps SpM reasoned that she was more likely to be the seer than Fordim was, so he proposed to start with her (he obviously wouldn't want to start with his teammate SoN). Either way, he would win, knowing that Evisse was no wolf & guessing that perhaps she was the seer.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes? SpM & tp were, however, forced to vote alike to make sure that tp did not get lynched (& decrease their numbers). Later, SpM reminded us to make sure there was no tie in the vote, innocent enough, unless he wanted to make sure that one of his counterparts didn't get lynched with Evisse. It seems likely that he was hoping for one more vote for Evisse & not two more votes for Phantom. Unfortunatley, I fell for this because I wanted to make sure that two innocents did not get hung (as I mentioned in my defense above)). Now, I also mentioned that I waited until the last second possible to vote, hoping to catch a wolf, which I never did. It is plausible, I think, that one fo teh reason why a wolf did not try to swoop in to tie the vote (a prime opportunity, though perhaps a bit risky) was because one of their own was near the noose. At any rate, SpM, tp, & SoN had already voted before this, possibly because the knew they didn't want to hold their hand & tie it at the end - they didn't want their partner gone with who they hoped was the seer.

Also:
Originally posted by Estel:

And another thing about the phantom. It has occurred to me that if he was a villager, the wolves would want to get rid of him because of his obvious intelligence. The thing is, he is a fairly easy character to cast suspicions on, so the wolves might instead kill others during the night while trusting that they can prey on the villager's feelings about phantom during the day.

Originally posted by SpM:

I also agree with The Only Real Estel on this

I was originally suspicious of phantom's turn-around, but let my own reasoning (above) convince me not to vote for him (which took out my prime suspect, causing me to vote late when it appeared obvious who I had to vote for). SpM verified what I said heartily. Now, I know that what I posted about the phantom is most likely true, so Saucey could've been innocently agreeing with them, or he could have seen a way of using the words of an innocent merchant to protect his partner in cold-blooded murder.

Given the evidence that I have listed above (& I do apologize for it being a bit long & a bit wandering at times), I am thinking we should follow through on the theory by lynching The Saucepan Man (though I am not yet voting), who is also under suspicion from several other sources.

If Sauce is innocent, I expect people to look at me, but I do believe that he has some hand in the evil doing about, unless I can be convinced otherwise. If Sauce is a wolf, we can then lynch SoN, & finally the phantom. Should I not live until the next day, I will say that I suspect Fordim almost as much as I suspect phantom. Therefore, if the first two lynchings are successful, but phantom is innocent, I propose we go after Fordim.