Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Fordim I need you to explain why you voted for somebody that you believed to be innocent. I know and understand what you have said but I just can't understand why yet. I actually want to believe that you are innocent but I need some validation for believing that.

Fair enough.

I suppose the final reason is that given the nature of the game, I never feel like I can know or believe anything for certain. When I voted for Sono I did believe that he was probably innocent and that Kuru was probably guilty -- but in either case I could be wrong.

I believe in risk management: when I assess a choice like this I try to make it in terms that take into account the best possible scenario (catching a wolf) and the worst possible scenario (creating a tie and letting a wolf kill two or even three innocents).

When I cast my vote there were, to my mind, three possible wolves available: Kuru, TP and SPM. My vote had no way of catching Kuru as no-one had voted for him. (And this has been noted by me so that I am becoming less suspicious -- if I'm the only one who has my eye on him, I should perhaps look elsewhere). TP and SpM each had votes for them, but I doubt that both are werewolves given that they have been going at each other: too risky with such a close vote. So I could only choose one and hope I was right, but that would have set up a tie for a future wolf to make -- so sure, I might have picked a wolf and another wolf (or even a misguided innocent) could have come along and made a tie and a wolf might have died taking one or even two innocents with him. So the best possible scenario, in that case, was that I had a slim chance of catching a wolf, with a better than slim chance of killing more than one innocent.

The worst possible scenario was just more attractive. By casting my vote the way I did, I knew that I would probably not be getting a wolf (but then, I could have been wrong, and Sono could have been guilty), but the pay off was that I could guarantee, right then and there, that there would be no tie and no further loss of innocents.

So it was brutal, cold and perhaps unattractive logic that drove me -- it may even have been faulty -- but to answer your question: I made the choice I did as a result not just of assessing the possible benefits of a correct vote, but taking into account the dangers of an incorrect vote.