Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the phantom]

Nice, Shelob. It's nice to see someone doing some real thinking about my guilt/innocence and possible lynching.

There is a big danger in your plan, though. What if no wolves have voted for me thus far? It's easily possible.

So if you lynch me, find out I'm innocent, and then lynch those who voted for me, you'll just be lynching more innocents.

Everyone, listen up. If I get lynched today, DO NOT assume that the people who voted for me before are the wolves. They might be, but maybe not.

I get the feeling that you are (deliberately or not) missing my point

No, how could I miss your point? You stated it plainly. You said that the fact that I am completely by myself an unattached makes me likely to be a wolf.

I responded by pointing out that a villager has much more of a reason to be unattached.

My point is easy to understand and logically sound, so I'm not sure why your opinion hasn't changed.

[Shelob]

"There is a big danger in your plan, though. What if no wolves have voted for me thus far? It's easily possible."

True...but if you're jotting down ideas every chance your parents leave the room 'cause you're supposed to be cleaning then you're bound to miss something...

...If no wolves voted for you...hmmm...

Off the top of my head I would say that we should look then not only at those who voted for you but also at those who were most vocal about your guilt...it widens the field slightly which gives the werewolves more free range...but it also makes it more likely that there's a werewolf/some werewovles in the group... It would be a gamble but then that whole idea is a gamble...

...allright...for about an hour I'm doing homework...I might check here but I'll have no time to post...after that I'll likely be back on to respond to ideas...since This day started at 10am for me I would prefer to hold my vote until the morning but depending on how things go I may vote before going to bed...Just in case you wonder why I've vanished.

[mormegil]

This is a bit of speculation on my part but it's a thought that occured to me that I wanted to present. There is a possibility that if the phantom is a wolf that SpM could still be one and vice versa. They both know that they are at the top of about everybody's list, so it would seem logical that they would disassociate themselves and even attack each other. Though we haven't heard yet from SpM on much today. See how that works. They talk and formulate the plan for this day that at least the phantom will attack SpM because they are going to be lynched. Therefore when we kill one the other would be exonerated. There's obviously no guarantee that I'm correct but it's food for thought.

TORE sorry this is backed up by any quotes but at least entertain the idea.

Fordim I like the thinking about why to lynch the phantom before SpM and I believe there is merit in it.

[The Only Real Estel]

Suprisingly, I find myself doing this, after calming down a bit.
First off, this is not at all a total vote of confidence in phantom! But I do have something I feel is important for you guys to think about.

I'll admit that my suspicions of tp have been heightened to the point that I was considering voting for him tonight. Then I remembered The Saucepan Man. Sauce has posted only once today (that I saw right off hand), & seems to be flying somewhat under the radar. I am still very suspicious of Sauce, & I realized that although I have been keeping an eye on the phantom almost the whole time; perhaps the reason why I am now more suspicious of him is because I know that he has posted accusing an innocent (me). Before I could never know for sure, of course.

I didn't find any real evidence in his SpM/Estel claim, so that made me suspect, added to the fact that I already know his theory to be false. But the fact remains that he may have simply been trying to make something out of a mess that has been our village. I saw no real evidence, but it is hard to come by concrete evidence, after all. I know his theory to be wrong, but I myself posted a very well thought-out theory (or so I thought) of my own that included the late SoN. Obivously I would like to think one can make an honest mistake. Another thing is this: Although I have heard the phrase "you can always tell who is at fault by who denies his guilt most vehemently," I am not sure that it quite applies here. Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous. I wouldn't say that I 'got mad,' but you can probably detect an edge in my voice at times when I replied to phantom's theory involving me.

Besides, there's just something about his posts that doesn't seem to add up. If he were a wolf I would expect him to be more subtle when faced with accusations. His tone of late seems to be one of desperation, as if he can see the village's votes are beginning to be directed towards another innocent (him) & he has to save us from ourselves. Of course it might just be that he is desperate to not be hung so that we'll hang another innocent again instead of his wolfish self, but I'm not sure that this is the case.

This is not at all a total vote of confidence in phantom!

I said it to start, & I'll say it to finish. But I would like to see the phantom live another day, what happens if he does, I cannot guarantee. I think The Saucepan Man is the one to go.

[The Only Real Estel]

Sorry to double-post but since the first was meant to be soley a potential defense of the phantom's behavior I think this will be allowed.

Originally posted by morm:

There is a possibility that if the phantom is a wolf that SpM could still be one and vice versa. They both know that they are at the top of about everybody's list, so it would seem logical that they would disassociate themselves and even attack each other.

Of course there is! Although Fordim did say a long, long time ago (forgive me for not having the exact quote ) that "votes are the only real evidence," votes can very easily be manipulated by wolves. If you have any doubts, just revist phantom's 'random thoughts' page on the happenings in the last village.

Originally posted by morm:

TORE sorry this is backed up by any quotes but at least entertain the idea

Of course I will (as you saw above). I hardly expect everyone to always go back & grab the quotes, but if your'e going to go to the work of formulating a long theory like phantom did than quotes help to give it at least some credence.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.

Well, I have had things to do. But the timing was good. I did, and still do, intend to lay low, just as I stated that I would at the outset of today's proceedings. But that's not because I am trying to make people forget about me. I knew after the outcome of yesterday's vote that I would be very much in the frame for today's lynching, and I doubted that anything which I might or might not say would change that. That remains the case (as is clear from what people have been saying). I am also nervous of accusing anyone now, since my previous attempts to find a Werewolf have gone seriously awry. It is dreadfully important that a Werewolf gets hung today and, right now, I am very much afraid of accusing yet another innocent.

Should I attempt to defend myself? Well, I am damned if I do and damned if I don't. If I do, it will be construed as a desperate attempt to save my neck from the noose. If I don't, it will be seen as an attempt to appear honest and genuine. Either way, wolfish motives will be ascribed.

But I will say this. Consider the evidence against me. I was instrumental in the hanging of two innocents. That's pretty strong evidence, isn’t it? Except when you consider (as has been said many times today) that we were all (with three notable, but unknown, exceptions) pretty much shooting in the dark for the first two days. In many ways, we still are. Yes, I pretty much started the ball rolling in both cases. But you all have your own minds and were perfectly capable of rejecting the arguments that I was putting forward. Yet, on each of the previous days, a number of you thought that my ideas made sense (although some of you no doubt did so with ulterior motives), just as they did to me. I would ask that you consider whether my behaviour over the last two days has been that of someone genuinely (if misguidedly) trying to seek out the Werwolves, or a deliberate attempt to lead the village into killing two innocents. If you conclude the latter, then so be it.

As for the remaining evidence against me, this consists of extracts from what I have said either in accusation or in support of one villager or another. Yes, theories against me can be built from those (albeit often quite convoluted ones involving a large degree of “double bluff“), but the same can be said of the things that (almost) every other villager has said.

As I indicated, I am not going to point the finger at anyone today. I will review what others say and vote accordingly at the end of the day. Although I have a few ideas, I currently remain very unsure of who the Werewolves may be, and I do not want to lead anyone down the wrong road yet again. I have made that mistake, and unwittingly done much of the Werewolves’ work for them, for two days running, and do not intend to do so again.

I will, however, make three points that I think may be of relevance.

It seems to me quite possible that on at least one occasion during the previous two days, one Werewolf will have voted for another. If so, it will have been done when it seemed safest to do so, ie when it would not (or would have been unlikely to) have resulted in that person’s lynching. Then, if the voter was then lynched and found to be a Werewolf, the votee would be able to distance themselves from him or her on the basis of that vote. It is only a possibility and is unlikely to have happened more than once (if at all), given the closeness of the voting.

Secondly, I think that people ought to pay some attention to the “tail end Charlie” role. It would seem sensible for the Werewolves to appoint one of their number (although probably not the same person on consecutive days) to hang around at the end of the day and see if they can catch a double (or even triple) lynching. I don’t buy the phantom’s theory that a double lynching would not necessarily benefit the Werewolves. I think it likely that they would go for it if they thought that they could get away with it, since there will always be other villagers to subtly maneuvre into the frame the next day. Given their greater knowledge, they would surely be fairly confident of doing so. That said, it would also be sensible for one or two innocent villagers to hang around at the end of the day to prevent a double lynching (or even catch a double-Werewolf lynching, if they felt sufficiently confident of doing so). So, the fact that someone is, or makes a habit of, hanging around at the end of the day is not necessarily an indication of their guilt. But it would nevertheless be sensible to pay heed to the “tail end Charlies”.

Finally:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Duh!

OF COURSE I'm trying to get OUT of the NOOSE!!!

NOBODY wants to be in the noose!!!

It's one of the primary POINTS of the GAME!!!

Actually, that is not strictly true. An innocent villager should be less concerned about saving his or her own skin and more concerned about finding the Werewolves, even if that means saying and doing things that may result in his or her own death (either at the hands of the villagers or the claws of the Werewolves). This is a team game and the villagers should be working as a team (even if they don’t know their team mates), even if that means that an individual has to risk sacrificing him- or herself for the common good. So overly defensive behaviour is likely to be more indicative of a Werewolf than an innocent villager. I should note that I say that merely by way of an observation, rather than as an accusation.

In any event, it looks fairly likely that either the phantom or I will face the noose today. Obviously, your primary aim should be to lynch a Werewolf. I am not a Werewolf, but I would say that wouldn’t I. So Shelob’s point is a good one. You should also consider which one of us, in death, will tell you more, should we prove to be innocent. You will probably learn quite a bit from either of our deaths. But, if you think that you will learn more from mine, I will understand.

And now I’m off to crack open another barrel.

[the phantom]

Killing an innocent TP brings the benefit of removing his confusing posts from the mix, and clarifying the real status of his posts to date. Killing an innocent SpM carries no equivalent benefit.

Huh?

My posts are confusing?

You must be reading them wrong.

The arguments I've given in my defense have been 100% completely and utterly logical. Not confusing.

My attack posts on SP, Estel, Firefoot, and you were not as solid as my defense posts (obviously, since I'm not absolutely sure of anyone's guilt), but my attack posts were way less confusing than most of the ones gunning at me.

Other people seem to want to lynch me because of a gut feeling or because of meaningless circumstances- no logic involved. When they've tried to involve logic I've blown huge gaping holes in it.

Forgive my arrogance, but my reasoning is a billion times more sound than the majority of the stuff coming at me.

In addition, as Firefoot said earlier, I'm probably less tied to people than anyone else on here, so you would think that my death would be the least meaningful.

Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous.

YES!! EXACTLY!!

I don’t buy the phantom’s theory that a double lynching would not necessarily benefit the Werewolves. I think it likely that they would go for it if they thought that they could get away with it, since there will always be other villagers to subtly maneuvre into the frame the next day.

That's where you are wrong, SP. When there are two very easy to lynch suspects and no clear-cut favorites after that, it is NOT easy to just "subtly maneuvre" another villager in as the next victim after the favorites are gone. After the prime suspects are taken care of new ones have to be found and there is always the possibility that one of the new favorites would be a true wolf. The wolves want to keep this from happening, and so they take their time in lynching the guilty-looking ones and make multiple free kills during the night.

Take it from someone who has done it- that's usually the best way for a wolf to operate.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

That's where you are wrong, SP.

Quite possibly. I have been on most things so far.

But actually, I think that the Werewolves would see that as a risk worth taking, certainly while there are still three of them operating (and now there may be four). The Werewolves have got to whittle the villagers down, so they will have to move on from the "clear lynching favourites" sooner or later.

But why would you think it worth arguing against my theory, phantom? You have not been a "tail end Charlie" so far. Even if you think that it is unlikely, surely it is at least worth at least taking into account?

[The Only Real Estel]

Originally posted by Estel (me):

Phantom has certainly denied his guilt loudly, & that is partially what has gotten him to the top of most people's 'lynch list.' But it is sometimes hard to keep your voice down when you feel that other people's accusations of you are especially ludicrous.

Originally posted by the phantom:

YES!! EXACTLY!!

The problem with you though, phantom, is that your reputation precedes you. You have been known as a mysterious, sometimes hard to decipher character, so it is hard to tell whether something is out of character for you, or if you are just switching things up. And don't get to excited...I've only put you off until next DAY (if you do indeed last that long), then I'll give you another hard look.

[the phantom]

But why would you think it worth arguing against my theory, phantom? You have not been a "tail end Charlie" so far. Even if you think that it is unlikely, surely it is at least worth at least taking into account?

I am not generally opposed to your "tail end Charlie" theory. Kuru was a "tail end Charlie" in the first game.

I am only opposed to the thought that werewolves would probably try to achieve a double lynching. I don't think people should necessarily consider that when deciding who is a wolf. I felt the need to point it out so that in the future people keep this in mind when forming a theory.

[The Only Real Estel]

I'm 99% sure of my vote & will post it tommorrow morning in the 7 o'clock area (central time). I have no reason this time to be one of the last to vote (that I know of), so if everyone rushes their vote in so that I am one of the last again it will not be my fault.

[Shelob]

Like TORE I'm all but sure of my vote...the only reason I'm not voting now is because Saucepan Man said

"You will probably learn quite a bit from either of our deaths. But, if you think that you will learn more from mine, I will understand."

Can anyone think of a reason why it would be better for us to lynch him? Ignoring all the suspicions flying around is there any reason why one of them (phantom or spm) is a better choice than the other?...I can't think of any now, so unless someone else can I know which way I'll be voting in the morning.