Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

I'm afraid the whole point of Saucepan Man laying low was to have people forget about him in his absence. It seems to be working to the necessary extent of getting people to give him another DAY.

Well, I have had things to do. But the timing was good. I did, and still do, intend to lay low, just as I stated that I would at the outset of today's proceedings. But that's not because I am trying to make people forget about me. I knew after the outcome of yesterday's vote that I would be very much in the frame for today's lynching, and I doubted that anything which I might or might not say would change that. That remains the case (as is clear from what people have been saying). I am also nervous of accusing anyone now, since my previous attempts to find a Werewolf have gone seriously awry. It is dreadfully important that a Werewolf gets hung today and, right now, I am very much afraid of accusing yet another innocent.

Should I attempt to defend myself? Well, I am damned if I do and damned if I don't. If I do, it will be construed as a desperate attempt to save my neck from the noose. If I don't, it will be seen as an attempt to appear honest and genuine. Either way, wolfish motives will be ascribed.

But I will say this. Consider the evidence against me. I was instrumental in the hanging of two innocents. That's pretty strong evidence, isn’t it? Except when you consider (as has been said many times today) that we were all (with three notable, but unknown, exceptions) pretty much shooting in the dark for the first two days. In many ways, we still are. Yes, I pretty much started the ball rolling in both cases. But you all have your own minds and were perfectly capable of rejecting the arguments that I was putting forward. Yet, on each of the previous days, a number of you thought that my ideas made sense (although some of you no doubt did so with ulterior motives), just as they did to me. I would ask that you consider whether my behaviour over the last two days has been that of someone genuinely (if misguidedly) trying to seek out the Werwolves, or a deliberate attempt to lead the village into killing two innocents. If you conclude the latter, then so be it.

As for the remaining evidence against me, this consists of extracts from what I have said either in accusation or in support of one villager or another. Yes, theories against me can be built from those (albeit often quite convoluted ones involving a large degree of “double bluff“), but the same can be said of the things that (almost) every other villager has said.

As I indicated, I am not going to point the finger at anyone today. I will review what others say and vote accordingly at the end of the day. Although I have a few ideas, I currently remain very unsure of who the Werewolves may be, and I do not want to lead anyone down the wrong road yet again. I have made that mistake, and unwittingly done much of the Werewolves’ work for them, for two days running, and do not intend to do so again.

I will, however, make three points that I think may be of relevance.

It seems to me quite possible that on at least one occasion during the previous two days, one Werewolf will have voted for another. If so, it will have been done when it seemed safest to do so, ie when it would not (or would have been unlikely to) have resulted in that person’s lynching. Then, if the voter was then lynched and found to be a Werewolf, the votee would be able to distance themselves from him or her on the basis of that vote. It is only a possibility and is unlikely to have happened more than once (if at all), given the closeness of the voting.

Secondly, I think that people ought to pay some attention to the “tail end Charlie” role. It would seem sensible for the Werewolves to appoint one of their number (although probably not the same person on consecutive days) to hang around at the end of the day and see if they can catch a double (or even triple) lynching. I don’t buy the phantom’s theory that a double lynching would not necessarily benefit the Werewolves. I think it likely that they would go for it if they thought that they could get away with it, since there will always be other villagers to subtly maneuvre into the frame the next day. Given their greater knowledge, they would surely be fairly confident of doing so. That said, it would also be sensible for one or two innocent villagers to hang around at the end of the day to prevent a double lynching (or even catch a double-Werewolf lynching, if they felt sufficiently confident of doing so). So, the fact that someone is, or makes a habit of, hanging around at the end of the day is not necessarily an indication of their guilt. But it would nevertheless be sensible to pay heed to the “tail end Charlies”.

Finally:

Originally Posted by the phantom

Duh!

OF COURSE I'm trying to get OUT of the NOOSE!!!

NOBODY wants to be in the noose!!!

It's one of the primary POINTS of the GAME!!!

Actually, that is not strictly true. An innocent villager should be less concerned about saving his or her own skin and more concerned about finding the Werewolves, even if that means saying and doing things that may result in his or her own death (either at the hands of the villagers or the claws of the Werewolves). This is a team game and the villagers should be working as a team (even if they don’t know their team mates), even if that means that an individual has to risk sacrificing him- or herself for the common good. So overly defensive behaviour is likely to be more indicative of a Werewolf than an innocent villager. I should note that I say that merely by way of an observation, rather than as an accusation.

In any event, it looks fairly likely that either the phantom or I will face the noose today. Obviously, your primary aim should be to lynch a Werewolf. I am not a Werewolf, but I would say that wouldn’t I. So Shelob’s point is a good one. You should also consider which one of us, in death, will tell you more, should we prove to be innocent. You will probably learn quite a bit from either of our deaths. But, if you think that you will learn more from mine, I will understand.

And now I’m off to crack open another barrel.