Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the phantom]

Oh, and Shelob, why aren't you willing to vote for Saucy before me? You voted for him yesterday- you might as well do it again and see if you were right.

Or did a werewolf bite change your mind?

[Kuruharan]

Or did a werewolf bite change your mind?

I'd been wondering that myself.

[Shelob]

"because I'm going to have to be up much later than I'd intended tonight" ~Kuru

I know how you feel...I'm not done with homework yet and when I finished my last post I told myself "That's it, no more Barrow-Downs until tomorrow" and look where I am...right back here...

"To ensure that Shelob cannot accuse me (again) of not having the courage of my convictions…" ~Kuru

I hope you don't mind but given that you also say 'Sorry Shelob. ' I'm reading this somewhat in the way of a jest...I hadn't actually ment to accuse you anything I was just wondering why since you seemed so sure you wouldn't just vote...Only to turn around and realize that I felt much the same way...



"Oh, and Shelob, why aren't you willing to vote for Saucy before me? You voted for him yesterday- you might as well do it again and see if you were right." ~Phantom

I was willing...I am willing...I will be willing...sorry, tenses have just about lost all meaning--and since it's now after 1 in the morning where I am I think you can forgive me for not fetting about it here, I'm saving fretting for the paper that's due tomorrow and still isn't finished...

What happened was I wondered why Kuru would suggest Saucepan Man when (as I was remembering) general suspicion seemed to be on you. I then had to go eat, when I came back I counted (as I described ye-many posts before) and realized that it was really really close and that SpM was by a hinted accusation actually ahead of you. After your outburst My mind was flitting through possibilities and landed upon the possibility I described in my bullet-point post.

Since that point I've been unable to work my mind around to seeing the advantages of killing Saucepan Man. I know that they're there...it's just my mind got itself caught between cleaning and homework to the point where the path it had already laid out here was clear and everything else gets detoured into my big end of the year project (mumblewhinecomplain)...that's why I asked "Can anyone think of a reason why it would be better for us to lynch him [SpM]?" I honestly can't given my state of mind right now.


As to this

"Or did a werewolf bite change your mind? "

Given my state of mind and My already proven inability to figure out what's said in jest and what isn't I'm going with the fact that Kuru seems to have taken this seriously to respond that what I've said above is true, whether or not you believe it is up to you...and if we're talking about bites I would like to point out that a veritable army of mosquitos have taken up residence in my room, I've got so many bites I probably wouldn't relize if a werewolf slipped one in...if, however, I turn into a mosquito tonight you'll know that were-wolves aren't the least of our problems, we'll have to deal with were-mosquitos too...

[the phantom]

Well, I'm off to bed so I won't be around to argue any more until shortly before the deadline.

As my last contribution to those of you who can't make up your minds, I'll provide links to all of my wonderful posts defending myself.

I am innocent. I'm super innocent. No wait, I'm extremely innocent. Or should I say entirely innocent. Or perhaps innocent as pure wind-driven snow. And don't forget I'm child-like innocent.

Read them and see if you can really support the case against me as much as you can support the case against Saucy.

[Kuruharan]

Or perhaps innocent as pure wind-driven snow.

I've started a fad.

I've got so many bites I probably wouldn't relize if a werewolf slipped one in...if, however, I turn into a mosquito tonight you'll know that were-wolves aren't the least of our problems, we'll have to deal with were-mosquitos too...

Is this a "yes?" This almost reads to me like a "yes."

If it is "yes" then the translation of that post is that The Saucepan Man is not online right now or Shelob hasn't yet been able to clear her turning on him with him yet.

(Let's see if that doesn't bring him out of the woodwork.)

[mormegil]

Well it is now time for me to vote and I am going to take Kuru's advice of getting some capital for myself. But not in the way Kuru wants. I have reread your arguement against SpM and I think that it is very good but I was able to see things in it that didn't add all they way up (such as taking things out of context and manipulating what he said). I know this may come across that I am defending him but I am not. I just simply cannot feel right about voting for him while the phantom is still out there killing innocents.

According to my calculations we have a better chance of getting phantom lynched today than we do SpM. I have stated that I think the phantom is guilty since early on and wouldn't be faithful if I didn't use this opportunity. I have a couple others I'm looking at next round, of which SpM is one and rather high on my list. I wanted to wait till later but I won't have time after right now to vote so I must vote for:

++THE PHANTOM

And hope that a sufficient amount of people follow Azaelia and myself on this. If he, beyond my thought, is found innocent then I fully expect to be a prime suspect but I am willing to take that risk.

[The Saucepan Man]

Goodness me! What a lot of energy is being directed by a certain two villagers in trying to persuade the village to lynch me. The phantom’s efforts are understandable, given that it is pretty clearly either him or me today. Although I have misgivings about any innocent villager who is prepared to spend quite so much time trying to save their own skin. Kuruharan, I suppose, is sticking to the opinion which he formed at the beginning of the day. But he does seem very unwilling to listen to anyone else’s opinion, while making a lot of noise himself.

The closed minds that these two are displaying makes me very uneasy. Then again, if I am lynched, you will see that I am innocent. That makes it very risky for a Werewolf to direct quite so much energy towards attacking me. I am now almost certain that one of them is innocent but misguided and the other is a Werewolf setting himself up as a DAY 4 sacrifice. It is highly doubtful that two Werewolves would do that. Only problem is, I have little idea which one of them is the innocent one and which is the guilty one.

To the extent that Kuru’s long post against me relies on my having been instrumental in the lynching of two innocents, I cannot deny it. I have acknowledged that fact myself on a number of occasions. Other than that, it is purely quotes taken out of context (as mormegil notes) and conjecture.

There are, however, a few points which I must address.

Kuru, when I said that you “flew under the radar” on DAY 1, I meant that you said practically nothing controversial until the discussion began to identify a single candidate for lynching (Evisse – by Shelob’s vote and my conjecture). You then concentrated your efforts on that candidate. That was the impression that I gained, in any event.

I never stopped suspecting you on DAY 2 although, as I said, I did begin to doubt my own thought processes after the outcome of DAY 1. I have given my reasons for accusing SoN. However, if I did not make it sufficiently clear, one of them was that you (one of my suspects) had seemed to draw my attention away from him on DAY 1. Since he proved innocent, that is clearly no longer a valid reason for suspecting you.

You point out that it is a valid strategy for a Werewolf to sacrifice him- or herself in order to get an innocent lynched. I agree. Indeed, it seems to be what either you or the phantom are doing today. But it is not a role that I would wish to take on, were I a Werewolf. Not at the outset anyway. Then again, you only have my word for that.

You seem to think that my previous two posts were nudging the village towards voting for the phantom. Well, given the current state of affairs, any attempt to defend myself is impliedly a nudge in the phantom’s direction since it is ether him or me today. Believe me, if I was more certain of his guilt, I would be more than happy to lay out my evidence for all to see and attempt to guarantee that he gets lynched. But I have no such certainty. All I really have to go on is the incredible energy that he has put into defending himself today. But I am by no means certain that this marks him out as a Werewolf.

If that means that I get lynched while he goes free, then I will at least content myself that the village will learn something from my death. Of course, the same goes for the phantom, if he is innocent. On that basis, and given that no one else seems to be anywhere near the frame today, I will probably end up having to vote for the phantom today. But I am by no means certain of his guilt.

The only thing that I can say with any degree of certainty based on today’s events is that it seems fairly likely to me that either the phantom or Kuruharan is a Werewolf.

Finally, I am not at all sure what to make of these comments by Kuruharan:

If it is "yes" then the translation of that post is that The Saucepan Man is not online right now or Shelob hasn't yet been able to clear her turning on him with him yet.

I have no idea what he meant by that but, whatever he did mean, it seems to be reading far too much into what was clearly a flippant comment.

This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me.

A curious comment. I am not aware that anyone has given any indication of voting for Kuru today, so why would he say that? If he is staking his innocence on my guilt, it is a very risky tactic for a Werewolf, given that my innocence may very well soon be proved.

As I said, I really don't know what to make of these comments, but they stood out to me.

I doubt that I shall post again before I vote as I have work to be getting on with. But, given the situation, I shall almost certainly be voting for the phantom. I will not vote now, as I would like to avoid any possibility of both he and I being lynched. If it looks like that could happen, I shall either not vote, or vote for someone else. I would rather that I die alone than have two innocents die today (and I have no certainty that the phantom is guilty).

[Oddwen]

It appears to be down to the phantom and SpM - first it's one or the other is lupine, or both, or neither. I sincerely believe that SpM (in this instance) has been and is the more dangerous of the two.
Yes, he's gone up on my suspicions list.

++SAUCEPAN MAN

[Holbytlass]

I am willing to give Phantom the benefit of the doubt based on what has been put forward. And given the strikes against SaucepanMan. And given the idea that Kuru and I had (of 2 main suspects). I vote ++Saucepan Man .

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

(Although on the other hand, Fordim does seem to spend an awful lot of time justifying hanging people he thinks might be innocent.

Well I'm sorry Kuru if it seems that way to you, but I guess I just lack your utter certainty about, and total faith in the validity of my conclusions. I don't think I can make it much clearer that I'm as certain of The Phantom's guilt as I can be under the circumstances. But only the wolves can know for certain whether I am right or wrong. Your own total certainty reveals you to be either a wolf or an incautious innocent (one would think that after you voted to lynch Evisse you would have realised that perhaps a conclusion might be wrong...I am just willing to acknowledge that I might be wrong before I cast my vote, rather than stand around afterward, red in the face with embarassment, mumbling about how sure I was that I was correct.)

At any event:

++ THE PHANTOM

[mormegil]

My head is currently spinning and I don't know which way to go. Do I vote for SpM or the phantom?
Kuruharan has made some good points about SpM but I've felt his guilt and found some evidence against the phantom.

SpM seems more willing to die and agrees with my general philosophy that this a team game and innocents should be willing to die if it will help the cause.

Kuru and The Phantom seem to be doing a lot of agreeing. Is the phantom seeing an innocent to side with?

Kuru accused SpM of flying under the radar and then being vocal after he was accused. I noticed the same thing with Kuru the first day so I'm not sure that arouses my suspicion.

But many good points were made by Kuru and set forth well.

What to do?

Edit: All I know for certain is that we had better bag a werewolf today or we are just about all dead.

[Kuruharan]

What to do?

Trust me. Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later. This issue is really down to a question of Saucepan or me. Just pick who you think is more trustworthy.

EDIT: Of course, you want to pick the Saucepan Man if you really want to bag a werewolf, since I'm not one.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Forget the phantom. You can always hang him later.

Can I? I'm not known for my convincing arguement and having a large following such as you, tp , spm and other. I have been trying for two days to get him lynched now I see I may have to opportunity. Will I be throwing that away? I feel like I've worked hard and fought well for that, now just to give up when it's almost in my grasp would be a bit silly.

[Kuruharan]

My response to that is that I'm apparently not the only one who can miss giant 'This is a Joke' signs

My response to that is that I know from personal experience in this type of game is that people often give away much more than they intend to with what they say.

There is a very simple way for you to solve your problem (and allay my suspicions of you at the same time). Just vote for Saucepan.

I'm not known for my convincing arguement and having a large following such as you, tp , spm and other

I have a following?! It's news to me. Look, like I said earlier, I don't know that the phantom isn't a werewolf. But we should only try to hang one at a time.
As I have been repeatedly asking, is there anyone here who does not have serious suspicions of Saucepan? The best way for you to build credibility is for you to vote for a wolf. Suddenly, when that happens, you've got some "capital" that politicians and political scientists are always nattering on about. You've said it yourself, I've built a convincing case. Don't you think it might be a good idea to get some capital to spend the next DAY. I promise you that I will read what you have to say about the phantom very carefully. You can even do what I did and take three hours and more if you like. I'll wait to see what you have to say before I do anything. In fact, I'll even let you have first crack at it before I attempt to develop any new theories.

(This is assuming of course I live through the NIGHT.)

[Shelob]

"Is this a "yes?" This almost reads to me like a "yes."" ~Kuru

My response to that is that I'm apparently not the only one who can miss giant 'This is a Joke' signs...though if your mind is in the same state as mine I can't say I blame you...

alright...if I come back on tonight yell at me...Remind me that my grade depends on the paper and not on werewolf...

Upon the morrow my friends, upon the morrow.