Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kuru
Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her.

This is why. Her death would in no way point the finger at you. That is the perfect NIGHT strategy for the werewolves. Kill people at NIGHT who will not point to you. Those who would point to you leave alone for as long as possible.

As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves.

If you are honest, then we have a fundamental philosophical difference in how to play the game. Innocent villagers attempting to defend themselves against people who attack them is attempting to uncover werewolves. If you are a werewolf then it is painfully obvious why you are saying this.

And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Good. I hope so, one way or the other.

the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent.

Yes. This will probably be true if you are innocent. However, that possibility should not ever be a deterrent for anybody speaking their mind. As I said, sooner or later everyone is going to be wrong, it is just going to happen. Since this is the case, there is no point in being timid because it won't save you embarassment and makes it more likely that you can be manipulated into voting for people you don't really want to. (Far be it from me to cite this game as an example).

However, it is an added bonus for me that I don't think you're innocent.

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out.

I urge everybody to go back and reread the posts in question. They are 48, 61, 62, 76, and 83 before Evisse's slaying. Then in 106, 124, and 134 he repeatedly and loudly blamed me as being primarily responsible for Evisse's death. (As a matter of fact he is still doing it here.) What I said before I'll say again. I became the natural target for werewolf manipulation because I did argue against Evisse. However, werewolf strategy suggests that you want to have one innocent to target later on your side in arguments for lynching innocents. I was that innocent in the case of Evisse. Once I started arguing against her, Saucepan had what he wanted and then backed up what I said (ignoring SoN for the time being) and ultimately voted for Evisse before I did (saying well before that point even that his vote was primarily down to her).

His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary

Hardly extraordinary in light of what we know about the phantom.

he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong

You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying. I've said a number of times that I might be wrong. However, I have also said that your behavior fits werewolf strategy so well that the possibility of my being wrong is a chance I am willing to take to test my theory. I'm determined to know if I am right or not.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

I know something about werewolf strategy *cough* and single-mindedness is not good strategy. It is not good strategy for the werewolves to make moves that will likely at some point thin their own numbers. Targeting innocents with single-minded intensity is a pretty good way for them to thin their own numbers eventually. They should only turn on each other when it is absolutely unavoidable. Believe me, I know what I am talking about when I say this.
However, contrary to Saucepan's assertion...I already discussed this back in post #297.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain.

Here he is trying to begin his "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine in case I should get lynched.

this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

Indeed, perhaps you should vote against Saucepan Man this time, considering how last time turned out.

Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf

-and-

The first of those two points should be fairly self explanatory. Kuru's insistance that we lynch Saucepan Man make him look like a werewolf simply because he's rather like a dog with a bone...but at the same time were a werewolf to act this way makes no sense because it's all but asking for us to lynch a true werewolf rather than an innocent (which would clearly be the werewolves main goal)

Exactly. I can promise you with a certain amount of authority in the matter that this is not a good way for a werewolf to behave (as I've said a few times earlier).

The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them

See, you're even coming up with points against Saucepan that I hadn't thought of, why don't you vote against him? I think it is time to put my theory to the test. Remember what happened with the phantom. Saucepan did want us to go that way and look what happened.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear…we’re picking up right where we left off. Two loudmouths going away at each other making it virtually guaranteed that one of them is going to get hanged today. To clarify, then:

Saucy’s theory: morm and Kuru are wolves who have been systematically going after other loudmouths with the support of one quiet wolf.

Kuru’s theory: Sauce is a werewolf and there are two more out there somewhere.

My theory: one of either morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves.

Of the three I still think, obviously, that my theory has the greatest merit . In response to the other two, I have to say that I find Sauce’s theory the more sound insofar as it takes into account a much broader picture: it makes a logical argument for the voting patterns and behaviour of the wolves as a group, rather than singling out a single person. So obviously, I think that Kuru’s theory is the less compelling – I have yet to see any real argument from him which would put the actions and votes of Sauce into a context that clearly points to his co-ordinated effort with other wolves.

Next, there are – so far – three suggested courses of action, based on these theories:

1) Lynch Kuru. If he’s a wolf, go after morm next.

2) Lynch Sauce. If he’s a wolf…I’m not sure who is being suggested as the next target, but I suspect that Sauce is right and that it would be me.

3) Lynch one of the quiet villagers, either Holby or Oddwen. If she is a wolf, then go after the other one next. Oops, wait, I’ve just seen Holby’s vote for Sauce – that tears it: she’s probably one of the quiet wolves.

And finally, one more list. What do we gain from each possible course of action if the hanged person is an innocent?

1) If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death, he’s only been defending himself so it wouldn’t prove that Sauce is a wolf. It might cast more suspicion on morm, who could be a wolf using Kuru as his innocent dupe, and possibly on TORE.

2) If we lynch Sauce and find that he’s innocent we can pretty much be certain that Kuru is either a smart wolf working with two quiet wolves, or an innocent who’s the dupe of another loudmouthed wolf (morm?).

3) If we lynch Holby and find that she’s innocent I’m not sure that anything new is learned either. Well, I won’t think that anything new is learned, but I’m sure that everyone else will be sure that you’ve found a wolf in the form of Fordim!

At any event, things are – as always – moving along very quickly and it would appear that my cogitations are perhaps pointless insofar as there are already three votes against The Saucepan Man. To this point I have tried to cast my vote in response to the votes of others, but from here on out I am going to vote the way my reasoning takes me and not strategically. To that end I here vote that we hang:

++Holbytlass

I must head off for a day of work now, and I shan’t have a chance to check in again until later this afternoon… I have no idea how I am going to concentrate on the matters at hand, however, with this going on!

[Kuruharan]

If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death

Actually, I think it would prove a lot. Particularly in light of how Saucepan was the one on DAY TWO who started coming down on me so hard and the whole "me being the target for lynching for Evisse's death" strategy.