Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, I don't think there's any shame in me saying that I have completely lost confidence in my methods at this particular village. Every theory that I've had (or any theory that I've picked up on) seems to go wrong.

I am a bit puzzled by mormegil's murdering, though. You'd think they would've taken out one of the lower-profile villagers again, leaving the 'loudmouth' (asFordim so affectionately calls us ) to get lynched by fellow loudmouths. Looking back at SpM's latest theory, he thought that the three wolves were Kuru, mormegil, & Holbytlass. When SpM was proven to be innocent, I was willing to give his theory a try - perhaps that is why mormegil was taken out. Let me explain. Once SpM was hung & proven innocent, the wolves might've suspected us to look towards the trio that he had set out. Now, they weren't afraid of us lynching mormegil (obviously), but morm was not the most logical starting point. Since Kuru went to the greatest lengths to attack SpM, and since SpM himself voted for Kuru last round it was most logical that we would test his theory starting with Kuru. Now, perhaps Sauce was two-thirds right. Kuru &Holbytlass could be wolves, that would explain why they offed mormegil, to discourage us from testing Sauce's theory. I am not sure by a mile, but I thought it was something I should bring up.

Personally I'd like to hear Fordim's plan of action again, since SpM seemed so convinced of Fordy's innocence & SoN's theory that I had planned on testing holds no water anymore.

In post #311 Fordim said:

My theory: one of either morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves.

(he voted for a quite wolf, Holbytlass)

Well, we know that morm was not a wolf, we know that Sauce was not a wolf, & I know that I am not a wolf. That leaves Kuru (and it leaves you). Out of all the villagers that are left I think I can come the closest to trusting Fordim, though. That leaves Kuru as the cover man and then two quite wolves, Holbytlass, perhaps is one of those, I'm not sure yet.

What does everyone else say?

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

If you are reading this post, dear brethren, then I have successfully made it through another NIGHT. In hope, but no great expectation of this, I have begun this post almost immediately upon reading of the sad murder of our much abused brewer by the three wolves:

Kuruharan
Holbytlass
Shelob

I am more sure of this list than I have been of anything in this game. I am not saying that it is the definitive list and that I have got all three wolves, but at least two of those names are fuzzy monsters (it’s possible that Kuru should be replaced by TORE) . Rather than go through a whole whack of arguments of my own, I shall let them speak for themselves…

On the first DAY I proposed my strategies and received the following, near identical responses:

Holby:

I kinda like the protecting of the seer idea. I'm not going to comment about the voting idea because, right now, I'm confused. And so sad for that rascal, Eomer.

Shelob:

As to what has here been said before mine entrance I have no qualms with the plan to protect the seer. It seems like 'twill give the hairy fiends a double headache in their nightly plots. I do however feel the much debated "short-list voting" to be lacking somewhat in mathmatics.

These were two of the only positive responses to it (along with the wolves’ first victim, our seer, Evisse). That they should come so close together and sound so much alike is interesting. But not so interesting as the sudden retractions posted by both monsters when they saw that the wind of general opinion was turning against them…

Holby:

For example, I did say that I thought the seer idea was a good one. Now that it has been stated of the huge advantage for the wolves I'm not so sure that we should do it. Now, no offense is meant for you, Mr. Fordim. The mere fact that you thought of and planned two daring ideas to protect all of us is mind boggling. I could never have done such a thing in a year and all we have is a day.

Shelob:

2) Out of all the behavious and tendencies I saw there the most suspicious to me is agreeing with what either was or will be clear to everyone (ie: the the plans are flawed) but still wishing to use them. To me this suggests that Evisse was trying to avoid suspicion by agreeing, but still hoping to get the plans impemented so as to help herself (and her lycanthropic kin).

So not only are they both suddenly against the ideas, without a shred of explanation, but Shelob is now using support of the plan as a reason to lynch Evisse. Meanwhile, Holby (who is far and away the smartest and most dangerous of the wolves) is stirring up the loudmouths and setting them against one another, and directing all attention toward them:

Holby:

Looking at the little shred of 'evidence'...
I ought to vote Fordim for his plan that has caused confusion
I ought to vote Saucepan Man for his innitial suspicion of me
Maybe Phantom cause he's too wily and smart.

Despite having identified three loudmouths (who were lynched, I might add, in reverse order as given here), however, she goes on in the same post to vote for Azaelia – with that notorious “coin flip.” This makes sense as the last thing she wolfishly wanted was for one of the suspicious loudmouths to get lynched on the first day when they can be set against one another for days to come…anyway, Evisse by this point is already doomed, so why cast a vote for someone who is about to be shown innocent, thus drawing attention down upon one’s wolfish self?

That night, of course, the guy who be short was killed by the wolves in that obvious attempt to frame me. mormegil is the first to point out that it was an obvious ploy and everyone agrees with this…but for two interesting exceptions:

Kuru:

It makes me think that the werewolves killed TGWBS thinking that we would never believe that Fordim (being one of them) would do something so obvious.

However, that is just a theory and not necessarily the best one at the moment. However, Fordim has ruined the calming of my suspicions about him.

Shelob:

Well,actually, no...I can think of one other possibility...assume Fordim is a werewolf, then by killing someone so clearly opposed to Fordim the werewolves would all but guarantee that everyone looks at the kill and thinks "It can't be Fordim, this is too obvious."...I'm not saying I believe Fordim to be a werewolf right now (I still hold the confusion he caused yesterday as a point against him, but from that we've all got a point against us so it doesn't really count) I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely...

At this point, Oddwen makes the first of the very few accusations against Holby who responds with what is, for her, a rather surprising amount of vehemence:

Holby:

Go ahead and lynch me with another, that would make the wolves happy having villagers do their work for them!! especially 'in one fell swoop' or whatever that saying was. I'm annoyed that I'm being accused of a wolf just because I haven't said anything. I have been here for quite awhile and i'm trying to take notes, my hands are faster with a hammer than a pen. And maybe all of you who talk too much, too fast, and point fingers too often ought to be strung up in a tie! It would seem more wolfish to cause noise than to think.
Now, please, forgive me for my rant. I want to be clear on things before any votes be given or where to place my vote.

The next time Holby emerges it is to point fingers at the loudmouths again:

Holby:

Maybe Fordim's short list might come in handy....
The 2 main suspects are Phantom and Saucepan Man. Some are suspicous of one or the other and some are suspicious of both. Are there any who do not suspect either?

And only a few posts later she is joined by Shelob:

I would vote for Saucepan Man...but I would as willingly vote for you Phantom..

And the next time we hear from Shelob she’s still at it, this time even citing Kuru and Holby in support of her argument:

Shelob:

anyway to continue...as the points stand that way (and admittedly it's not a very accurate way...) it's Saucepan Man: 4.5, Phantom 4 (Kuru hinted at SpM in post 175, but since he never named names I counted it only as a half a point)

I'm not sure how to read Holby's post (190)...it says simply that the most suspicion is on those two and actually seems to suggest an idea similar to Kuru's...worst comes to worst it boosts the points up to 5.5 and 5 accordingly...

I’ve not quoted the loudmouthed Wolf very much, because I don’t feel I have to. Sauce has already made the case against Kuru more effectively than I ever could. But I would like to point out this interesting post…

Kuru:

Oh yes, then there is the other werewolf Firefoot who will vote for the phantom.

I was forgetting about her (even though I probably have less excuse for that than others).

This spurious accusation was not taken up by anyone else, and soon after it, Firefoot is dead.

With the death of our Guardian, I started making my case for the quiet wolves, and just as with happened with my initial propositions on the first DAY there’s agreement…

Holby:

I do agree that there probably is at least one 'quiet' wolf,

and yet when it comes time to vote…

Holby:

I have read all theories and posts and opinions that have been put forth so far, I feel like The Phantom did the other day when he believed all of them. Yesterday, I voted for SaucepanMan, today I do the same. I think we should put Kuru's idea into action.

++SaucepanMan

And then, once more, there’s a post after this in which the other quiet wolf mirrors the actions of her brilliant leader:

Shelob:

I still feel strongly that Kuru is a werewolf...but the only argument against him is one based on strategy...Saucepan Man has a few stronger points against him.

For such reasons I feel it to be in our best interest that I vote ++THE SAUCEPAN MAN ...though part of me still screams against it...

So once more we have a lot of smoke as they go back and forth about who to vote for, apparently confused and undecided about which of the loudmouths to go after, and then in the end they go after the same one…

There is simply too much evidence here of co-ordinated effort for it to be happenstance. At least two of these people are Wolves. For my money, Holby is the most likely candidate to be a wolf – and the smartest of the wolves. If it came to a vote between Shelob and Kuru I would vote for Shelob because it’s possible that Kuru is not a wolf, just the wolves’ unintentional patsy.