Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 06-21-2005, 05:28 PM

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As said before, if it's such a great idea, why doesn't Phantom volunteer.

You're right. That was "said before", and it was also answered before, so it was rather pointless for you to repeat, unless you are merely trying to plant a bug in people's ears that I should be the one to die. But why would you want to do that? Hmm...

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If we lynch a volunteer, we're guaranteed to lose an innocent, therefore lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio. I bet they'd laugh in glee.

We're going to be lessening the villager-to-wolf ratio even if we don't follow my plan (odds are).

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There may be a "statistical disadvantage" as Phantom calls it, but to my mind, a chance is still a chance.

So you are willing to do something despite a statistical disadvantage? That doesn't sound too smart.

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On one hand, we definitely won't lose one of our important villagers, such as a seer or a guardian during the day

Yes, that is the plan's strong point.

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but at Night, anything can happen

That is always the case, plan or no plan, so that doesn't really matter.

Also, if the seer is killed during the night, all we will have to do is look back at his/her posts to see what hints were given and we will at least have a bit of guidance.

the phantom · 06-21-2005, 05:53 PM

I was going to hold my tongue on this for a bit because of the temporary truce Fea and I have, but I feel the need to say it after Azalia's comments.

WHY IN THE WORLD would you ask someone why they aren't volunteering? It's a stupid thing to do, because obviously the best reason not to volunteer would be if you are a gifted villager, which is something you certainly do not want to admit to being. There is not an answer to that question that could possibly have a positive effect on the village, but it could certainly have a negative one.

If I would have answered "Well, um, because I just really think there are better choices than me", then the obvious implication would be that I was a gifted villager and the werewolves would kill me the following night.

Fortunately when I wrote up my requirements for volunteering I included the notion that the best volunteers would be inactive ones. Sure, it is a good thought in and of itself, but the primary reason I included it was to provide a reasonable answer to the question "Why aren't you volunteering?" in case the question was asked (directed at me or anyone else).

You see, I figured that question would be asked by someone before it was ever asked, and I also thought that asking the question might be a sign of a werewolf.

To my mind, Fea and Azalia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

Lalaith · 06-21-2005, 06:28 PM

Good evening fellow villagers. I'm sorry not to have joined in the discussion before, but even on such a terrible and tragic day as this, my first duty was to my babes who were fretful and needed tending. Now they are all sleeping soundly and I can share my thoughts with you all.
I agree that on this first day, we will almost certainly be lynching at random. But to knowingly kill an innocent - surely not. Is it not our humanity that seperates us from the werewolves? If we sink to their level in order to defeat them, have they not won, anyway?
I note my name has cropped up as being under suspicion. I accept that with the random element of today's vote, any one us could end up dead at the hands of the rest and that one may be myself: there is little that any of us can say to each other at this stage to convince of our innocence.
I wondered what lay behind the hints of the phantom? I asked him to beware, because I felt he was leading us to infer that he was a 'gifted' villager, and thus picked up by the werewolves as their next victim. But I see that while I was composing my thoughts he has pre-empted this observation.

Lalaith · 06-21-2005, 06:47 PM

We know this:
There are three working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are and who the enemy is.
There are two also working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are, but they don't know who the enemy is.
There is one person on his own, who now knows if one other person is a friend or an enemy.
There are the rest - eleven - blundering around in the dark, knowing our own innocence but no-one else's.

Can anyone trace any threads of common purpose from the posts so far?

Saurreg · 06-21-2005, 07:01 PM

Alas for poor shortie! I will surely miss him and his irrelevant information on the woodland diet of werewolves when human flesh is unavailable and our ongoing debate on the feasibility of acquiring werewolf pelts.

For shame! For shame!

Oddwen · 06-21-2005, 07:55 PM

A sad day indeed -
That our friend had to bleed
In defiance of his creed
So bid him godspeed
As we, out of need
Search out beasts hairy and flea'd
Kick 'em in the knee!
This story ain't twee -
So, I beseech thee,
Pray that I won't think up more rhymes.

Indeed, verily forsooth and etc., conundrum after conundrum present themselves like lemmings.

As to THE phantom's plan - I think it has merit. On one hand killing an innocent will increase the odds in the Villager's favor, yet on the other we're not killing werewolves and they're matching our loss with their own kill.

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?

Celuien · 06-21-2005, 08:30 PM

Well, if The Phantom's plan is only applied for a couple of days, it could work. But there's still the no volunteers problem that's been pointed out frequently. I'm not planning to volunteer - lynching is an unpleasant business, particularly for the one being lynched.

Plus, I'm not totally comfortable with lynching a known innocent for many of the reasons given above (reducing debate/chances to analyze voting patterns and providing unintentional cover for wolves). Although this does seem less relevant early in the process where most of us are pointing blindly anyway. Later on I'm afraid it could spell disaster.

Fea doesn't seem as suspicious as I was starting to think earlier. Just, umm, noisy.

Not particularly werewolfish. But I don't know - it's too late for my muddled brain to work properly. More in the morning...

Celuien · 06-22-2005, 07:25 AM

Okay, just a few more things...

Right now, I'm leaning toward a vote for Oddwen. Granted, she's only made one comment, but there's something a little odd here:

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Originally Posted by Oddwen

As to THE phantom's plan - I think it has merit. On one hand killing an innocent will increase the odds in the Villager's favor, yet on the other we're not killing werewolves and they're matching our loss with their own kill.

Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect?

I'm uneasy about her suggestion of using the plan later - that's exactly the time when using this method is worst for the villagers. Unfortunately, I know that this is as much a shot in the dark as anything else.

Where are Anguirel and Esgallhugwen?

EDIT: Cross posted with Evisse.

littlemanpoet · 06-21-2005, 07:28 PM

I've washed my hands after supper.

Evidence. Evidence. Evidence. Yes, Eomer, it was slim evidence at best, but evidence is about all we really will have to go on, besides luck or a plan (if enough people are willing to follow it). You certainly do seem to come across as one of the innocents, but wouldn't that be what we should expect out of a smart werewolf? Not saying that you are, but not saying that you aren't.

Getting back to the phantom's plan. With the two day limit it makes a lot of sense to me, but there's just one little problem. Well, no, a big problem. Nobody's volunteering. I'm certainly not going to! I want to stay alive as long as I can! Who wouldn't? So like I said, it looks like a good plan except for that one glaring flaw.

Azaelia of Willowbottom · 06-21-2005, 08:33 PM

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Originally Posted by the phantom

To my mind, Fea and Azaelia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager.

Why else would you ask?

An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager.

I was not asking you to volunteer seriously...I just had noticed that you were arguing particularly strongly without seeming ready to support your plan fully yourself. I'm not trying to frame you up. I'm not trying to get you lynched. It's just a fact that no one wants to die.

I am not working with Fea or trying to trick you into admitting that you are a gifted villager, Phantom...I don't even think that you are, just at this stage. It's hard to know anything about anyone.

As to another thing you said about me going with a statistical disadvantage not being logical... As I've said before, I think that completely having no chance of lynching a werewolf while at the same time having the certainty of killing an innocent villager is just not that great a situation. Either way we choose, we're at a disadvantage.

Also, I just don't think it particularly realistic that any villager, innocent or otherwise, is going to volunteer to die on the first Day. I certainly haven't seen anyone raising their hands.

And you seem to be suspicious of me. If I was a wolf, I'd be keeping my head down and just watching with glee as you lynch an innocent villager without any help from me. Obviously, that's not what I'm doing.

I simply see a small chance of catching a werewolf as being better than no chance at all, in spite of the risks. That's just my opinion. Perhaps we'll have to agree to disagree, since we're basically saying the same arguments over and over.

Saurreg · 06-21-2005, 08:58 PM

Tis a sad day here in Storyland. But well water must be drawn, chickens fed, cows milked and foxes skinned; life must go on.

Right, on with the show.

I am surprised that our resident seadog Eomer has already set his sights on not one but two fellow villagers without any rational explanation at all and when LMP pointed this out, he quickly threw in FN as another suspect. Was he drunk when he made those statements? Or does he know something that we do not? I do not know but I shall be keeping my eyes wide open.

The Phantom must be commended for trying to come out with a sensible plan to safeguard the wider interests of the village. Note that I said "trying" 'cuz in this ole trapper's eyes, that hare-brained scheme hasn't got any darned legs to stand on - much like those funny-looking raccoons I processed last week. Selfless morality is lacking in these parts and if we go back the good ole tradition of death by mob; at least we stand a chance (no matter how slender) of hanging a darn man-wolf.

Therefore I submit that we stick to the lynching. Dead wolf on the scaffold and a major contribution to the study of their darned kind (especially whether or not they remain furry after death). What's there not to like? But nevertheless The Phantom deserves alittle praise for his idea. I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't. Then again, I've never had much gold on me.

the phantom · 06-21-2005, 10:12 PM

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Nobody's volunteering.

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But there's still the no volunteers

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Selfless morality is lacking in these parts

You are all correct, of course. I imagine no one will be willing to step forward, but there's always a chance.

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I am not working with Fea or trying to trick you into admitting that you are a gifted villager, Phantom...I don't even think that you are

Don't try and take the wolves' eyes off of me, or anyone else for that matter. Though I'd like to live till tomorrow, if the wolves kill me tonight that would mean our seer would have the opportunity to dream another dream, so don't openly suspect that I am not gifted. If you really think I am a plain old villager, you should want the wolves to suspect that I am gifted so they will kill me and thus leave the seer, ranger, and such alive.

Now, I know it was just a passing statement, Azalia, so I'm not saying you made some sort of case for me not being gifted- this is mainly just a warning to everyone to help in the future.

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I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't.

Well, we healers have plenty of gold, so how about I give you a gold star and you can give it back to me?

By the way, I have some other thoughts besides my plan but it would be best for me to hold them for now.

the phantom · 06-21-2005, 10:38 PM

I'm feeling quite tired after all this talking. I'm going to go take a nap.

I'll see you all a bit later.

06-21-2005, 05:53 PM	#2
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	I was going to hold my tongue on this for a bit because of the temporary truce Fea and I have, but I feel the need to say it after Azalia's comments. WHY IN THE WORLD would you ask someone why they aren't volunteering? It's a stupid thing to do, because obviously the best reason not to volunteer would be if you are a gifted villager, which is something you certainly do not want to admit to being. There is not an answer to that question that could possibly have a positive effect on the village, but it could certainly have a negative one. If I would have answered "Well, um, because I just really think there are better choices than me", then the obvious implication would be that I was a gifted villager and the werewolves would kill me the following night. Fortunately when I wrote up my requirements for volunteering I included the notion that the best volunteers would be inactive ones. Sure, it is a good thought in and of itself, but the primary reason I included it was to provide a reasonable answer to the question "Why aren't you volunteering?" in case the question was asked (directed at me or anyone else). You see, I figured that question would be asked by someone before it was ever asked, and I also thought that asking the question might be a sign of a werewolf. To my mind, Fea and Azalia asking why I haven't volunteered is quite suspicious. It's almost as if they are hoping to trick me into outing myself as a gifted villager. Why else would you ask? An innocent would know to hold his/her tongue so as not to risk exposing a gifted villager. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important. Last edited by the phantom; 06-21-2005 at 06:16 PM. Reason: bold names

06-21-2005, 06:28 PM	#3
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Good evening fellow villagers. I'm sorry not to have joined in the discussion before, but even on such a terrible and tragic day as this, my first duty was to my babes who were fretful and needed tending. Now they are all sleeping soundly and I can share my thoughts with you all. I agree that on this first day, we will almost certainly be lynching at random. But to knowingly kill an innocent - surely not. Is it not our humanity that seperates us from the werewolves? If we sink to their level in order to defeat them, have they not won, anyway? I note my name has cropped up as being under suspicion. I accept that with the random element of today's vote, any one us could end up dead at the hands of the rest and that one may be myself: there is little that any of us can say to each other at this stage to convince of our innocence. I wondered what lay behind the hints of the phantom? I asked him to beware, because I felt he was leading us to infer that he was a 'gifted' villager, and thus picked up by the werewolves as their next victim. But I see that while I was composing my thoughts he has pre-empted this observation. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling Last edited by Lalaith; 06-21-2005 at 06:33 PM. Reason: explained in post!

06-21-2005, 06:47 PM	#4
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Further thoughts before bed We know this: There are three working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are and who the enemy is. There are two also working together towards a common purpose. They know who they are, but they don't know who the enemy is. There is one person on his own, who now knows if one other person is a friend or an enemy. There are the rest - eleven - blundering around in the dark, knowing our own innocence but no-one else's. Can anyone trace any threads of common purpose from the posts so far? __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

06-21-2005, 07:01 PM	#5
Saurreg Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: In self imposed exile... Posts: 465	Alas for poor shortie! I will surely miss him and his irrelevant information on the woodland diet of werewolves when human flesh is unavailable and our ongoing debate on the feasibility of acquiring werewolf pelts. For shame! For shame! __________________ "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. " ~Voltaire

06-21-2005, 07:55 PM	#6
Oddwen Drummer in the Deep Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Next Sunday A.D. Posts: 2,145	Deja moo - the feeling that you've heard this bull before A sad day indeed - That our friend had to bleed In defiance of his creed So bid him godspeed As we, out of need Search out beasts hairy and flea'd Kick 'em in the knee! This story ain't twee - So, I beseech thee, Pray that I won't think up more rhymes. Indeed, verily forsooth and etc., conundrum after conundrum present themselves like lemmings. As to THE phantom's plan - I think it has merit. On one hand killing an innocent will increase the odds in the Villager's favor, yet on the other we're not killing werewolves and they're matching our loss with their own kill. Would this plan work if it were not done in the first two days? Could we go back to it in the later stages with the same effect? __________________ But all the while I sit and think of times there were before I listen for returning feet and voices at the door

06-21-2005, 08:30 PM	#7
Celuien Riveting Ribbiter Join Date: May 2005 Location: Assigned to Mordor Posts: 1,767	Well, if The Phantom's plan is only applied for a couple of days, it could work. But there's still the no volunteers problem that's been pointed out frequently. I'm not planning to volunteer - lynching is an unpleasant business, particularly for the one being lynched. Plus, I'm not totally comfortable with lynching a known innocent for many of the reasons given above (reducing debate/chances to analyze voting patterns and providing unintentional cover for wolves). Although this does seem less relevant early in the process where most of us are pointing blindly anyway. Later on I'm afraid it could spell disaster. Fea doesn't seem as suspicious as I was starting to think earlier. Just, umm, noisy. Not particularly werewolfish. But I don't know - it's too late for my muddled brain to work properly. More in the morning... __________________ People assume that time is a strict progression of cause to effect. But actually, from a non-linear, non-subjective viewpoint, it's more like a big ball of wibbly-wobbly, timey-wimey... stuff.

06-21-2005, 07:28 PM	#9
littlemanpoet Itinerant Songster Join Date: Jan 2002 Location: The Edge of Faerie Posts: 7,066	I've washed my hands after supper. Evidence. Evidence. Evidence. Yes, Eomer, it was slim evidence at best, but evidence is about all we really will have to go on, besides luck or a plan (if enough people are willing to follow it). You certainly do seem to come across as one of the innocents, but wouldn't that be what we should expect out of a smart werewolf? Not saying that you are, but not saying that you aren't. Getting back to the phantom's plan. With the two day limit it makes a lot of sense to me, but there's just one little problem. Well, no, a big problem. Nobody's volunteering. I'm certainly not going to! I want to stay alive as long as I can! Who wouldn't? So like I said, it looks like a good plan except for that one glaring flaw.

06-21-2005, 08:58 PM	#11
Saurreg Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: In self imposed exile... Posts: 465	Tis a sad day here in Storyland. But well water must be drawn, chickens fed, cows milked and foxes skinned; life must go on. Right, on with the show. I am surprised that our resident seadog Eomer has already set his sights on not one but two fellow villagers without any rational explanation at all and when LMP pointed this out, he quickly threw in FN as another suspect. Was he drunk when he made those statements? Or does he know something that we do not? I do not know but I shall be keeping my eyes wide open. The Phantom must be commended for trying to come out with a sensible plan to safeguard the wider interests of the village. Note that I said "trying" 'cuz in this ole trapper's eyes, that hare-brained scheme hasn't got any darned legs to stand on - much like those funny-looking raccoons I processed last week. Selfless morality is lacking in these parts and if we go back the good ole tradition of death by mob; at least we stand a chance (no matter how slender) of hanging a darn man-wolf. Therefore I submit that we stick to the lynching. Dead wolf on the scaffold and a major contribution to the study of their darned kind (especially whether or not they remain furry after death). What's there not to like? But nevertheless The Phantom deserves alittle praise for his idea. I'd give him a complimentary gold star if I had one but I don't. Then again, I've never had much gold on me. __________________ "Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. " ~Voltaire Last edited by Saurreg; 06-21-2005 at 09:16 PM.

06-21-2005, 10:38 PM	#13
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	I'm feeling quite tired after all this talking. I'm going to go take a nap. I'll see you all a bit later. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.