Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[littlemanpoet]

I was going to say much that Saurreg has already covered in his first post of TODAY. There is, however, one thing he is wrong about:

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Lalaith I could still be wrong about...

Lalaith was someone about whom our late Seer was not sure, but hoped he was.

I wish that Ang had not been quite so "Feanorian" in his response to your "ineffectual seer" post, because Hookbill's doom was already pretty much assured. So I bemoan the fact that he said he'd kill himself if Hookie was innocent, because that really left no room for doubt that he knew he'd be dead today anyway by being so blunt about it. So Hookie was going to get lynched anyway, but we could have had our Seer still undercover and available to dream of the werewolf on this latest night. For all we know, he DID dream of the werewolf, but cannot tell us for obvious reasons. So a bit of mercurial self-defense has let the werewolf slip our notice yet again.

Granted, Saurreg, that if Ang had not been so blunt, you might have been after his hide and we might have had a double lynching of both seer and werewolf, but the odds of that were, I don't know, something like 6 to 1.

So now we must take a stab at who the last werewolf is. I noticed this from Saurreg:

If we go by my dual theory of werewolf voting behaviour, I'd say the last wolf voted for Hookbill to save its own skin. Look for the votes there. Signs such as sudden reversals in belief, voting patterns or just plain too-good-to-be-true posts explaining the rationale behind the votes may yield alot.

As you noted in a later post, a sudden voting reversal could be seen in either light. Quite right. If I were the werewolf, and I kind of knew that Hookbill was going to get lynched, I'd have switched my vote the first opportunity I saw. But I'm not the werewolf, and I was, as I said before, responding to the seer's clear indication.

By the way, the cursed villager may not still walk among us. If the cursed villager is lynched, she or he is dead. Only if a werewolf kills the cv, does the cv become a werewolf.

I believe my posting history bears out that I have been suspicious of Evisse myself. Of course, Feanor's mercurial play continues to leave me unsettled as well.