Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by LMP - to tgwbs

Since I have nobody to discuss this stuff with, I'm sending my thoughts to you, despite the fact that it is my decision and you will not, and should not, respond.

Anguirel is the seer. He has identified two people as innocent, which tells me that he has dreamed about a lot of now-dead villagers (cackle!). So I still have a remote chance. If I kill him tonight, his little list will become gospel, and my kill list becomes obvious: kill those the others are sure are innocent, so that they lose certainty. I have to leave Feanor alive or else bring suspicion upon myself. So it looks like Ang, Saur, Cel, in that order. More thoughts coming soon.

Because of Anguirel's list, assuming that he is the seer, there are three known innocents, one werewolf, and four uncertain innocents. If I kill Anguirel, then we have two known innocents, one werewolf, and four uncertain innocents, but every last one of them is absolutely convinced of the innocence of the two known innocents, since the seer's posts become gospel truth to fall back upon (thank the lycan gods that he seems to have been rather inept in his posting and kept dreaming the wrong people!)

Hookbill and I discussed me voting for him. I told him I would, but then thought that I might not because it would look suspicious, until Anguirel's ploy gave me that out.

The two "gifts" still out there are Cursed Villager and Hunter.

Once the Seer is out of the picture: whereas it's useful to get rid of known innocents (such as Saurreg .... and Celuien, considering the supposed Seer's validation of her), it would be better to get rid of Celuien first in case she's the cursed villager, because it's obvious that Saurreg isn't. Not to mention it would be a gas if Celuien found herself a werewolf, a more unlikely candidate I cannot imagine.

The Cursed Villager could be any one of the following: Celuien, Eomer, Evisse, Feanor, Firefoot, Lalaith (she seems cursed!), Nilpaurion, and Oddwen. Odds of killing the cursed villager at this point: 8:1

The Hunter could be any one of the following: Celuien, Evisse, Feanor, Firefoot, or Lalaith. The Hunter has to be after LMP in order to kill LMP when LMP attacks the Hunter. Question: Can the Hunter choose LMP and kill LMP because he's a werewolf even if LMP doesn't attempt to kill the Hunter but someone else? Odds, as it looks to me right now: 15:1 (5+4+3+2+1?) (both have to be looking for each other).

If I have that right, and if I don't go for Anguirel tonight, I have a twice as good chance of finding the new werewolf as being killed and game over.

But Anguirel has a 3:1 chance of dreaming about me tonight. Those are odds I can't take a chance against. He's gonna die tonight, but I'm not yet done figuring things out, so please answer my question and then I'll give you the official kill choice.

What I can't get over is that some of the villagers still don't have a clue that Anguirel is the seer! Which changes tonight.

I hope you find this entertaining.

I sent tgwbs one final PM giving him my kill choice, and asking some further question, I forget now what it was. Anyway. So there it is. That's as far as I got, Night Five. You guys are lucky Esgal died of frog-in-mouth disease. My concern is that I haven't heard from her since then at all.....