The Midsummer Maulings (WW5)

[mormegil]

I've always found it helpful to post the Day's voting and glean from it any knowledge we can. This list is in order of who voted for who.

Mormegil voted Kath
Gil-Galad(1) voted Holbytlass
Firefoot voted Orominuralwen
Feanor voted Gil-Galad
Holbytlass voted Gil-Galad
The Guy Who Be Short (TGWBS) voted Gil-Galad
Kitanna voted Gil-Galad
Kath voted Orominuralwen
Orominuralwen voted Gil-Galad

Did not vote
Durelin
Oddwen
Sophia (New Gil)
Niparurion

[Firefoot]

So, let's see. If I had to pick four suspects out of our list, I guess they would be: Oro, Holbytlass, Kitanna, and... undecided. Since our 4th wolf wasn't a wolf yesterday, we unfortunately will only have evidence to the contrary. This also means that no one is on my "in-the-clear" list anymore.

Oro - this is largely gut instinct, as I stated before: "is taking the wounded innocent approach. "Me? Of course it's not little old me. You have absolutely no reason to vote for me." Etc. That raises my suspicion quicker than just about anything else."

Holbytlass - seemed to be doing a pretty good job of deflecting accusations in other ways when she was accused. This does not necessarily indicate a wolf, but her posts don't sit right with me. I'm teeter-tottering on whether I think she is a wolf or not.

Kitanna - in the start, she didn't post anything of any real substance, though sometimes she jumped on and echoed other's accusations. Towards the end of the day she finally posted some opinions but didn't really say anything new. This may or may not be evidence of a wolf.

All of this is slim evidence. In fact, I doubt I'd be convinced if someone else wrote this. But I'll put it out there for discussion anyway, and hopefully I'll gleen some new information today, about these three and the rest of you.

Here she must have said something about a werewolf that frightened them into giving her a rather explosive end. Who did she suggest was a werewolf here? Only mormegil and Firefoot.

And I will still maintain that it doesn't make sense for a wolf to kill a) someone who directly implied their guilt during the day or b) someone the wolf accused of being guilty that day. Criteria a) leads me to doubt that mormegil is a wolf. Using criteria b), TGWBS and Fea are probably innocent.

[the guy who be short]

We must also remember the potential for double-bluffing. The way I see it is this:

Oddwen was very quiet.
Oddwen had mild suspicions but didn't really have any major impact on how things happened.
Oddwen was a very minor presence yesterday.

Now, this makes me thing Oddwen was killed because she was quiet and not casting accusations. So the wolves want all us "loudmouths" to stay alive, as we are casting accusations, but wrongly.

This would imply that most of those presently being accused are infact innocent.

Only a theory, but one I would like to beseriously considered. At the moment, my thought is bent most on Oro and Durelin.

Edit: additional thoughts.

Kitanna is also suspicious - I noticed the lack of substance of her posts before.

It is interesting to note that Oddwen didn't accuse anybody majorly in that main post of hers. Rather, it was a defence of most of us - doubtless including the wolves, who I think want to hide behind it. "An innocent said we seemed innocent too. She had no ulterior motives." That kind of thing.

Edit II: I notice that Oddwen only really accused Firefoot, who I think is likely to be innocent as she has many of the same feelings as me. I think the wolves are most likely trying to frame her.

Edit III:

Originally Posted by durelin

Concerning suspicions about Firefoot, she strangely voted for Oro

Strangely? A strange vote for Oro? I see defensive language. This support seems like some sort of alliance. I'm most tempted to believe in a Oro/durelin wolvish alliance, with Kitanna possibly on the side.

Edit IV:

Just so it is clear:

Greatest suspicions:
Orominuialwen
durelin

Some suspicion:
Kitanna
Nilpaurion felagund

Probably innocent:
mormegil
Kath
Firefoot
Feanor of the Peredhil

Don't know:
Gil-Galad
Holbytlass

[Gil-Galad]

i have returned, but fear not, i am here to help you

*pulls out the matrix* Light our darkest hour!

...okay...but the gift shop was still cool...

[Kath]

Well so Gil dead but reincarnated and now Oddwen slaughtered in the night - not a happy village at the moment.

So, who voted for Gil - Fea, Holbytlass, TGWBS, Kitanna and Oro. I've a couple of choices for most suspicious here. TGWBS was pretty vocal in his pursuit of Gil for reasons that I still find to be inconclusive. Kitanna though I feel wary of as well as she posted very little during the day and then stuck in a vote that she knew was safe, or at least likely to be.

I'm still unsure over Mormegil. Yesterday I was very suspicious of him because of his going after Gil who I thought to be innocent. Then he starts going on about a Kath/Gil alliance (now proven to be an unfounded belief) and votes for me. This sudden shift is confusing me somewhat but I'll have to think on that one.

I am becoming very suspicious of Durelin but for no good reason. Just something about her seems wrong.

Anyway please feel free to proclaim your innocence all of you, I'll see who I believe.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Quote:
Originally Posted by durelin
Concerning suspicions about Firefoot, she strangely voted for Oro

Strangely? A strange vote for Oro? I see defensive language. This support seems like some sort of alliance. I'm most tempted to believe in a Oro/durelin wolvish alliance, with Kitanna possibly on the side.

I said 'strangely' because she gave few reasons, and still does. I am ready to pull apart any baseless argument, because voting for the lynching of an innocent person is as much a deterrment to us villagers as the murdering of an innocent person by the wolves is.

But anyway. I see I'm becoming *suspicious*. Notice, of course, that they only people who say I'm suspicious are those who I said were suspicious. A vicious circle it is.

Now, if all of you are saying Oro is suspicious, then let's collect the evidence so far why.

First of all, she's been faily inactive. So has Nilp. Second, she's taken on a 'wounded innocent approach'.

Originally Posted by Orominuialwen

Only a wolf would call such a weak defense as mine subtle.

Kinda a weak defense, and she has been pretty defensive from the start.

I think we shound watch Feanor, but to vote for her today would be rediculous, as Gil-Galad already seems headed for the noose. He seems rather suspicious to me, so I believe I will cast my vote in that direction too. ++ Gil-Galad

Going with the crowd like them could point to guilt or innocence. Depends on how you read it.

Now, let's see...I haven't looked too closely at Holbytlass or Nilp or Feanor, or Gil-galad2, for that matter.

First, let's start with Holbytlass. She's been pretty straightforward in most of her posts, though she's been a little defensive...though really everyone has, I suppose, to varying degrees. But, both her and Feanor went with the crowd and voted for Gil-galad, who we now know to be innocent. Nilp just hasn't been around, so...guilty silence or innocent silence?

Unfortunately I'm a little short on time... But I'm going to have to vote very soon, as I will, unfortunately, be absent much of tomorrow.

edit: cross-posted with several people...

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Holbytlass - seemed to be doing a pretty good job of deflecting accusations in other ways when she was accused. This does not necessarily indicate a wolf, but her posts don't sit right with me. I'm teeter-tottering on whether I think she is a wolf or not.

And I will still maintain that it doesn't make sense for a wolf to kill a) someone who directly implied their guilt during the day or b) someone the wolf accused of being guilty that day.

The only major accusation I received was from Gil1, and it was easy to deflect his reasoning of the vote for me because it was not correct or made sense.
Any other 'deflecting' isn't because, for instance, Firefoot's suspicions of me are based on how she doesn't necessarily like how I post. There's not alot I can do about that.

I voted early on for Gil1 and most people might agree with me that he brought it upon himself. I was and still am innocent.

I do agree with Firefoot's second quoted statement. At this stage wolves most likely will not kill someone who is tied to them in accustions, suspicions or votes.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

it was not correct or made sense..

a little bit Presumptious eh Holbytlass?