The Midsummer Maulings (WW5)

[the guy who be short]

I'm going to defend Kath and morm here. I am not associating myself with either, and do not wish to be seen to be doing so, but these are my thoughts.

Originally Posted by morm

However I do find it disconcerting how willing Kath was to jump on that bandwagon and then dissapear after I mention the connection.

She does need to sleep, y'know. She's British.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Morm says he'll give Gil the benefit of the doubt and that "he is an inexperienced innocent" and then it turns out Gil (the first that is) really was an innocent. Maybe Morm was telling the truth and thought Gil was innocent. Or maybe he knew something the rest of us didn't. This could all be a coinedence or Morm just slipped in his keeping his identity a secret.

Complete speculation, m'dear. Each of us is (or at least should be) accusing and defending a myriad of other villagers. If he continues to have such a success rate discerning innocents from wolves, perhaps I will be suspicious. Not so for one person.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'm also curious about TGWBS and Morm being the first (and with amazing speed) to respond to Oddwen's death. But once again that doesn't actually mean anything. But the cross post was interesting...

It's easy for me to do so, as my internet time corresponds neatly with the start of Day. Also, there is about an hour's notice before the start of Day in the noticeboard thread.

And now, I must sleep. A nap is good for the nose, they say, and I'll be needing mine to sniff out the werewolves amongst us.

*eats a Shortie snack and leaves*

[Orominuialwen]

As I have already explained, the defence I gave of myself (taking the wounded innocent approach) was due to inexperience. Yesterday we lynched an innocent because of behavior that (as far as I can tell) stemmed from inexperience. Let's not make the same mistake twice. tgwbs, your suspicions of me seem to have no basis other than that Durelin disagreed with Firefoot's gut instinct about me. Frankly, I disagree with Durelin's opinion. My first post was indeed suspicious, but as I've said before, that was due to nothing more than inexperience and a love of theatrics. I'm shy in real life, so online it's fun to get to be dramatic once in a while.

I really have no idea why anybody would want to kill Oddwen, as she didn't really seem to be much of a threat. She didn't even vote, after all.

Edit: Cross posted with Gil and Holbytlass

[Gil-Galad]

i agree with Orom, were al lgetting riled up at each other that if one of us dies we all go and convict the person that was lashing at us most, the werewolf is smarter then we think...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

Complete speculation, m'dear. Each of us is (or at least should be) accusing and defending a myriad of other villagers. If he continues to have such a success rate discerning innocents from wolves, perhaps I will be suspicious. Not so for one person.

Yes it is complete speculation. But I have a bad feeling about Morm, one which I can't quite explain. It was probably a coinedence, but I'm still watching him a little closer now.

Originally Posted by TGWBS

It's easy for me to do so, as my internet time corresponds neatly with the start of Day. Also, there is about an hour's notice before the start of Day in the noticeboard thread.

I didn't even think of that. I forget sometimes about everyone being on different times. It certainly explains people being absent.

[Durelin]

I'm feeling quite pressured...I'm going to have to vote soon, because I will be absent all of tomorrow (surprise trip that I thought wasn't until thursday).

So...Oro, I, and Holbytlass seem to be getting some suspicion...Kitanna a little, mormegil a little... Really, everyone's suggested almost everyone. When you don't know who your enemies or allies are, I guess that's how things work. And for the wolves...the chaos is most likely most rewarding.

[Durelin]

Well, I'm going with ++Kath.

I read through Firefoot's post, and that made me realize a few things. And I find that how she seems to go along with varying people to be strange.

Sorry to have such a quick vote, but no vote is not an option, is it.

[Holbytlass]

At this early stage of suspicions and accusations, I think we ought to work our way backwards, going after the 'quiet' ones first. They leave very little to work with especially at the crucial end time and those who don't participate at all, I'm not thrilled about possibly getting executed. Besides, maybe this would encourage more from them and their thoughts and we'd have better ideas on where people stand.

At this point I'm looking closely at Kittana, Firefoot and Adam (Nilp).

[mormegil]

Unfortunately I was busier today than normal at work so I wasn't able to post some of my thoughts. I want to expand on my list of who voted for who by giving what I perceived to be their reason, either explicitly stated or inferred from what was said in that and previous posts.

Mormegil at the time of my vote I was highly suspicious of both Kath and Gil1. They seemed to be working together but keeping it subtle as wolves would do. It did cross my mind that they were possibly a hunter/guardian combo but I figure those who are the h/g combo would be much more subtle and avoid each other at this early stage. So it seemed more than likely that they were wolves. While Gil's behavior was suspicious (obviously) I gave him the benefit of my doubt about it and would rather attribute his behavior to being a wolf. But, Kath I just couldn't see doing that. But with Gil's unfortunate death and being proven innocent my suspicions have been somewhat diminished of Kath.

Gil1 Voted Holbytlass???? I still haven't figured out why? Again inexperience? That my only thought.

Firefoot Has suspected Oro since early on and voted for her based on the "wounded me" approach. Also Firefoot has given some insightful post up to this point. Probably not guilty

Feanor Never know what to make of her. First to vote for Gil1...he was highly suspicious...but innocent. Stated her reason for her vote was Gil's notorious quick change in a vote. Truth be known I may have changed my vote for Gil had I been around to see that change myself. She's hard to read with being so loud and all however I feel that if she were a wolf she'd be a bit less vocal...probably not guilty

Holbytlass Same as Feanor. Voted for Gil based on his quick change. Could have been a knee-jerk reaction but I don't see that in her. Probably innocent.

TGWBS In a third and fairly important vote he voted Gil1. He voiced his suspicions early and then waited to vote. He said in post 62

Well, others have taken the lead in voting for ++GIL GALAD. He appeared most suspicious to me out of The Three anyway, so there it is.

It might be nothing at all but is seems to me that he was waiting for somebody else to do that so he wouldn't have to be first. Granted you spoke against him but your choice of words and timing seem suspicious to me. My feelings and logic dictate that we watch him more carefully he's smooth and expert in these matters. He's not to be taken lightly. Probably guilty

Kitanna Voted Gil on the quick change but her vote basically assured death. Could be innocent enough but a couple of other things bothered me about her. On the first day in post 24 she seems to piggyback on Holbytlass. She spoke regularly but added little (see post 7 and 29) Seems to me that this behavior is becoming of a wolf. Post often but don't really contribute. Most likely guilty

Kath Voted Oro following Firefoot's explination. My doubt, as stated, is diminished some due to the crushing of the Gil1/Kath alliance suspicion I had. She could have been piggybacking on Gil but I'm not sure. She bears watching. Possibly guilty

Oro Voted Gil and was virtually the nail in his coffin (which he seemed to break out of ) based on the reason that others gave...quick reaction. Is the 5th vote more or less suspicious than the 3rd or 4th? Not sure. I'd like to hear more from her and other that are quiet to conclude but possibly guilty.

Speaking of quiet ones those who don't vote garner much suspicion from me. I don't think we are doing enough looking at those who don't speak. It seems ideal for a wolf to not vote on day one and remain quiet all day while we make up excuses for them why they couldn't be here. *Nilp I'm looking at you**

Edit: cross post with Holby (this took a long time to type on my laptop) But I'm glad others are suspicious of the quiet group as well. Us loud mouths are being too good a shield for them.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Kitanna Voted Gil on the quick change but her vote basically assured death. Could be innocent enough but a couple of other things bothered me about her. On the first day in post 24 she seems to piggyback on Holbytlass. She spoke regularly but added little (see post 7 and 29) Seems to me that this behavior is becoming of a wolf. Post often but don't really contribute. Most likely guilty

Speaking of quiet ones those who don't vote garner much suspicion from me. I don't think we are doing enough looking at those who don't speak. It seems ideal for a wolf to not vote on day one and remain quiet all day while we make up excuses for them why they couldn't be here. *Nilp I'm looking at you**

Mormegil beat me to it. I came up with the same with Kittana. And Adam (Nilp) for being 'quiet'.
I'm still looking at Firefoot just to be sure I'm not being suspicious of her just because she is of me.

[Kitanna]

I like how everyone thinks I piggyback (ok, that's pretty true) and that that's wolfish behavior, but what none of you know is that I'm a complete and utter moron! Yes that's right, a moron.
But I do want to say I voted for the first Gil-Galad because I truly thought he was guilty. And I was wrong as were a number of other people. So you can all say I went with the crowd if you want, but I know why I voted for him.

[Firefoot]

If you'll remember, Firefoot, Gil wasn't a known innocent at the time.

I know, I'm writing with my 20/20 hindsight. At least, some of it is 20/20. Seriously, though, anytime I say "known innocent" or "proven innocent," it is on what we know currently. I think you already understood that, though.

you're so darned organized

Heh, I'm good at making lists but it doesn't organize my mind very well...

He's not to be taken lightly. Probably guilty

I agree with Morm that TGWBS is not to be taken lightly; I, however, am leaning towards his innocence.

She's hard to read with being so loud and all however I feel that if she were a wolf she'd be a bit less vocal

Now here's what would be suspicious: a quiet Fea. No, no, the best way for a wolf to act is how they normally act. While I am leaning towards Fea's innocence, it's not because she's not being quiet(er).

Concerning quiet vs. loud: wolves can come from either end of the spectrum. Our only real "quiet ones" are Oro (3 posts) and Nilp (1 post). What we really need to look at, though, is what people are saying. If Nilp's 1 post was really informative and comprehensive, I would look less at him. (I'm not exactly suspicious of him, but my theory of this is "Guilty until convinced otherwise." ) So, looking at the quality of people's posting:

There is a lack of substance in the posts of Gil-Galad and Nilp.

There is middling substance in the posts of Oro, Holbytlass, Kitanna, and Kath.

There is good substance in the posts of Fea, TGWBS, Morm, and Durelin (and I'll throw myself in here).

Definitions (so there is no confusion):
Lack of substance - Very few or no suspicions cast (esp. toDay); no real logical thinking.

Middling substance - These people give voice to suspicions, though not always with reasons. Some commenting on what has happened, though not always what they think of it.

Good substance - Give voice to suspicions and provide at least some back up. Make logical comments about what is going on and what they think about it. Generally provide lists and/or explanations.

My guess is that 2 or 3 of our wolves will come from the first two categories, but we probably have at least one wolf in the last category.

[Firefoot]

I know that I don't have a lot of evidence, cf.:

All of this is slim evidence. In fact, I doubt I'd be convinced if someone else wrote this.

I'm just going with what I have, which obviously isn't a lot.

My suspicions still stand, to a greater or lesser extent. I'm becoming watchful of Durelin (not suspicious, watchful), and I probably suspect Kitanna the most right now. I'm sort of flagging on Oro and Holbytlass.

Right now I'm looking a little closer at the voting of yesterday. Using Morm's list:

Mormegil voted Kath - If Morm is a wolf, Kath is almost definitely not. A wolf would not vote for another wolf right off the bat; there are too many different ways the vote could go.

Gil-Galad(1) voted Holbytlass - Gil1 was innocent, but ungifted. Holbytlass could be either guilty or innocent based on this.

Firefoot voted Orominualwen - You can draw your own conclusions. I've already explained this.

Feanor voted Gil-Galad - Voted for a known innocent; Fea could be a wolf, though at this point I don't think a wolf would be the first person to vote for a given person.

Holbytlass voted Gil-Galad - 2nd person to vote for a known innocent. If she were a wolf, Gil would make the most sense: he already has a vote, will probably get more votes, but she couldn't be accused of bandwaggoning. But she could also be an innocent - it would have been consistent, as she had had her eye on Gil all Day.

TGWBS voted Gil-Galad - This would be a pretty good time for a wolf to vote, and the right candidate. (However, I don't think he is guilty due to Criteria B) above)

Kitanna voted Gil-Galad - If Kitanna voted for Gil, it would be half the total votes needed for Gil to go to the noose. I'm not sure that a wolf would vote for an innocent heading for the noose at this point. It seems more likely to me that a wolf at this point would vote for an innocent already voted for.

Kath voted Orominualwen - This seems to be the most suspicious vote of all. This follows the pattern stated above. She could still be an innocent who was unconvinced of Gil's guilt, but I am unsure. My eye is on Kath now, as well.

Orominualwen voted Gil-Galad - About the same analysis as Kitanna's vote.

Did not voters - I don't think a lot of information can be picked up here. They could be innocent just as easily as guilty.

I'm not sure how much conclusive evidence can be picked up from Day 1's voting at this point. It was pretty blind on the part of the innocents, and we don't know enough about the wolves' styles to pick them out.