Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way) - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

mormegil · 07-12-2005, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the guy who be short

False. Theoretically, if we picked somebody at random, we would have a 25% chance of killing a wolf. With lycanthropic influence factored in, the chance is realistically much lower. In any case, we have a Seer, a Ranger, a Hunter and two Shirriffs, all of whom are important to the village. That gives us a (theoretical, if done at random) 42% chance of killing a Gifted villager. With wolvish influence factored in, this is again higher.

On the other hand, we cannot gauge reaction and votes. I shall have to think about the plan.

That's why I say do a completely random approach. While I consider the hunter and shirriffs to be important they are not nearly as important as the ranger who also is not as important as the seer. So I'm not for loosing any of them (any innocents for that matter) but it's not the end of the world.

Let's just think carefully:

We have:

12 villagers
3 wolves
1 seer
1 ranger
1 hunter
2 shirriffs
1 mythomaniac

That's 9 of 12 that can't step forward and die. One innocent is killed the first day we only have 2 left. Best case for the village during the night would be that they kill one of the other two. Next day the last remaining villager steps forward to be lyched we have nobody left except gifted villagers or wolves (assuming that the mytho becomes gifted) Now the wolves can one by one pick off the gifted. And what have we accomplished? Well hoping that the seer dreams correctly we can find a wolf or two by their dreams but chances are they won't dream of a wolf. Two days have been wasted that otherwise could have been used to analyze wolf behavior by having innocents step forward to be sacrificed.

the guy who be short · 07-12-2005, 11:41 AM

Quote:

That's why I say do a completely random approach.

But how do we know you can be trusted to choose somebody completely at random? A wolf could "randomly" choose an innocent. In any case, the chance of killing a Gifted Villie is double that of killing a wolf done randomly.

I would advocate the tried and tested method of evaluating people's moves, but I still need to devote some time to scrutinising LMP's plan. I guess the shortage of innocent villagers is a major shortcoming.

mormegil · 07-12-2005, 11:44 AM

TGWBS I am now either convinced that you are innocent or are in league with Oromin. I'm inclined to believe in you innocence.

Firefoot · 07-12-2005, 11:50 AM

Quote:

TGWBS I am now either convinced that you are innocent or are in league with Oromin. I'm inclined to believe in you innocence.

Huh? Morm, where do you get this? Oro has not posted, and TGWBS has not even mentioned her - and she is one of several people he has not mentioned.

mormegil · 07-12-2005, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Huh? Morm, where do you get this? Oro has not posted, and TGWBS has not even mentioned her - and she is one of several people he has not mentioned.

I gauged his reaction to my proposal and found him likely to be innocent.

the guy who be short · 07-12-2005, 11:54 AM

Firefoot - Morm wanted to "randomly" lynch Oro. I'm opposed to this plan of "random" lynching.

Edit: Morm, if your plan was simply to gauge reaction, why didn't you continue and gauge more people's reactions? Why stop at one person!?

Firefoot · 07-12-2005, 12:01 PM

Okay, I get it now.

Kath · 07-12-2005, 12:04 PM

Quote:

hunter and shirriffs to be important they are not nearly as important as the ranger

Now wait a minute morm could we have an explanation for this please? The hunter is very important, when they die they can take one person with them. Now the way they have to do this is to choose a name, one person, who they believe to be a wolf. It would be beneficial to the village then for the hunter to remain under wraps until they are certain of a wolf so that if they are lynched or killed by the wolves they can take one of them with them. The ranger can protect one villager and at that not more than once in a row. So even if they somehow guessed the Seer and protected them one night they would be unable to do this again and the wolves might get the Seer the next night. To me the hunter seems to have the more important role.

Also, since your accusation of Oro was based on nothing more than the random picking of a number how can you lump someone else in with them?

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 07-12-2005, 12:08 PM

You can judge this to be 'siding' with a particular person (as the debate currently stands) but I don't care; I see no suspicious behaviour thus far, and I fear that some of you are beginning to go off on the wrong tangent.

Remember that it's very easy to see another person as a wolf once you get the idea into your head. Take a step back and look at what you're doing.

mormegil · 07-12-2005, 12:08 PM

Kath in many ways the Hunter can be more of a liability at this stage especially. I clearly said I do not want them killed but the Seer and Ranger are far more important to our survivability. I explained my lumping TGWBS and Oromin earlier but his reactions gave me some insight.

the guy who be short · 07-12-2005, 12:15 PM

Holbytlass, LMP did not say that the Seer should remain utterly silent. He simply meant "don't openly declare youself," I believe.

I re-iterate: I only defended Oro due to the odds. There is a 50% chance of her being gifted, as compared to a 25% chance of her being a wolf.

Eomer, be reassured. I have not yet classed anybody as a wolf. Though interrogation must be performed...

07-12-2005, 11:44 AM	#3
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	TGWBS I am now either convinced that you are innocent or are in league with Oromin. I'm inclined to believe in you innocence. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

07-12-2005, 12:08 PM	#9
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	You can judge this to be 'siding' with a particular person (as the debate currently stands) but I don't care; I see no suspicious behaviour thus far, and I fear that some of you are beginning to go off on the wrong tangent. Remember that it's very easy to see another person as a wolf once you get the idea into your head. Take a step back and look at what you're doing. __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

07-12-2005, 12:08 PM	#10
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	Kath in many ways the Hunter can be more of a liability at this stage especially. I clearly said I do not want them killed but the Seer and Ranger are far more important to our survivability. I explained my lumping TGWBS and Oromin earlier but his reactions gave me some insight. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

07-12-2005, 11:54 AM	#6
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Firefoot - Morm wanted to "randomly" lynch Oro. I'm opposed to this plan of "random" lynching. Edit: Morm, if your plan was simply to gauge reaction, why didn't you continue and gauge more people's reactions? Why stop at one person!?

07-12-2005, 12:01 PM	#7
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	Okay, I get it now.

07-12-2005, 12:15 PM	#11
the guy who be short Shadowed Prince Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Thulcandra Posts: 2,343	Holbytlass, LMP did not say that the Seer should remain utterly silent. He simply meant "don't openly declare youself," I believe. I re-iterate: I only defended Oro due to the odds. There is a 50% chance of her being gifted, as compared to a 25% chance of her being a wolf. Eomer, be reassured. I have not yet classed anybody as a wolf. Though interrogation must be performed...