Werewolf VI (the saga continues in a rather continuous way)

[Firefoot]

I could go for TGWBS's list; I think Saurreg's death is as likely to give us information as Holbytlass's is, and they seem (to me) to be about equal probability for wolves.

I am interested to see what Saurreg is going to put in his summary/analysis post later on. I think it will be able to tell us something.

[littlemanpoet]

My computer's working better now. Phew! (though not perfect)

I am leaning toward the innocence of Morm & Firefoot, so their lists of suspects I hold as only slighlty less authoritative than guy's

We have 4 votes in favor of the plan. Of those 4, we have:
3 against Saurreg,
4 against Holby,
3 against Gil, and
2 against Lhuna.

guy has explained that Saur claims to have thought Eomer a shirriff, then voted for him anyway. He has explained his vote.... as Holby did; but defending one's vote is not necessarily a sign of lycan.

As it is, we need more approvals of the plan before we go ahead. I'd like to see some continued discussion of the suspects.

And any idea what the Hunter ought to do to help our plan, if not choose B or C?

[mormegil]

I can see that Saurreg appears guilty and I agree but I think that Holby seems more suspicious and therefore should be the lynching victim of this day.

[the guy who be short]

Bed calls me. However, before I go, I would ask Saurreg to defend herself. Why did you say that?

I need to go back and check up on Holbytlass' record myself, as I'm loth to go by other people's evidence. I shall have that done by the morrow.

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

3 against Saurreg,
4 against Holby,
3 against Gil, and
2 against Lhuna.

Considering I'd like to take myself out for personal preservation, and I hope I have given good reason for Morm's initial thinking me a wolf and how he is mistaken. TGWBS and LMP are innocent and I think Firefoot and Morm are.
That leaves Nilp, Lhuna, Oro, Gil, and Saurreg, so based on the votes taking myself out my list is....

1Gil
2Saurreg
3Lhuna

4Nilp
5Oro

[Firefoot]

So we have proposed lists of:

LMP
A) Holby
B) Lhuna
C) Gil

Morm
A) Holby
B) Gil
C) Saurreg

TGWBS
A) Saurreg
B) Holby
C) Lhuna

Holby
A) Gil
B) Saurreg
C) Lhuna

LMP
A) Morm
B) Firefoot
C) Saurreg

I could potentially go along with any of these, though my top three suspicions are probably the three on Morm's list, but I can see the sense in the other two lists as well.

I'm going to go read through the rest of the thread again; I'll let you know if I find anything of interest.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

So we have proposed lists of:

Don't forget my list:

A) Holby
B) Lhuna
C) Gil

& my new list (just to think about):

A) Morm
B) Firefoot
C) Saurreg

Edit: I'm really interested in seeing posts from Saurreg (especially the analysis), Nilp, Lhuna, Gil, and Orom.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Just posting to say that yes, I'm here, and that in about ten hours, I'll make a post of substance.

Oh, and yeah: Lynch me.

[Firefoot]

LMP - Duly noted and edited.

If people want to go with your new list, I think I would move Saurreg to the top (at this point. I want to hear what he has to say as well). I'm not really going to respond to your accusations; I'll let my posts stand for themselves.

Concerning Gil - I think it's odd that he was immediately so suspicious of TGWBS's and LMP's claim to be Shirriffs. Maybe he didn't have time to think it out, but (to me, anyway) it seemed pretty clear pretty quick that no wolf in his/her right mind would do that... Not a lot else can be gleaned from his other posts. He got extremely irritated that we were voting for him for lack of substance. His vote for Eomer makes sense according to his given reason (to save himself). I'm certainly suspicious of him, and his posts have done nothing to alleviate that - unfortunately, there's also nothing concrete to comment on.

Saurreg - I can see where his analysis would fit coming from either a wolf or an innocent. He commented on several people as being possible wolves - some of them now proven wrong. He could be a wolf casting suspicion on others or a confused innocent. I'm not sure what to think of his vote for Eomer. I don't know that I want to lynch him, but certainly I think one of the Seers should dream about him. (Note: my uncertainties may be based on the fact that at the end of Day 1, I was thinking him innocent. Eomer's warning is a double-edged sword: once you think a person is innocent it is very easy to 'see' them as innocent...)

Holbytlass - defended gifted villagers, was against deliberate killings of innocents. Generally a good sign, however, both would be things that a clever/experienced wolf would say. I think she probably has more figured out than she's saying.

If Holby is a wolf, I don't think that Gil is - why would she put him as Suspect A? I'm starting to suspect a Holby/Saurreg alliance - Saurreg said in his analysis post, "worth taking a look at," but there are several more that he seemed much more suspicious of, actually calling them possible lycans. Holby put him as her Suspect B; however, it makes more sense to keep two people on her list who are already on people's lists (that is, Saurreg and Lhuna), even if one of them is a wolf. After all, he wouldn't be lynched until tomorrow, and in the mean time it would remove suspicion from herself.

Admittedly, this is pretty tenuous. But I'll put it out there anyway.

Oh, and I'm starting to wonder if we maybe shouldn't have a Seer dream about Nilp anyway, just to save ourselves the headache of trying to figure out whether he's single, double, or triple bluffing, or not at all. Seriously.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

LMP - Duly noted and edited.

thanks.

If people want to go with your new list, I think I would move Saurreg to the top (at this point. I want to hear what he has to say as well).

Duly noted and accepted.

I'm not really going to respond to your accusations; I'll let my posts stand for themselves.

As I said in the post to which you refer, I doubt that you're a wolf, but the point had to be raised because I don't want us wasting either lynches or dreams if we can avoid it.

Concerning Gil - I think it's odd that he was immediately so suspicious of TGWBS's and LMP's claim to be Shirriffs. Maybe he didn't have time to think it out, but (to me, anyway) it seemed pretty clear pretty quick that no wolf in his/her right mind would do that... Not a lot else can be gleaned from his other posts. He got extremely irritated that we were voting for him for lack of substance. His vote for Eomer makes sense according to his given reason (to save himself). I'm certainly suspicious of him, and his posts have done nothing to alleviate that - unfortunately, there's also nothing concrete to comment on.

I've noticed that nobody has commented on my "rookie werewolf" theory, of posting on a Werewolf thread during a Night phase. Anybody have any thoughts on that?

Holbytlass - defended gifted villagers, was against deliberate killings of innocents. Generally a good sign, however, both would be things that a clever/experienced wolf would say. I think she probably has more figured out than she's saying.

Good point.

If Holby is a wolf, I don't think that Gil is - why would she put him as Suspect A? I'm starting to suspect a Holby/Saurreg alliance - Saurreg said in his analysis post, "worth taking a look at," but there are several more that he seemed much more suspicious of, actually calling them possible lycans. Holby put him as her Suspect B; however, it makes more sense to keep two people on her list who are already on people's lists (that is, Saurreg and Lhuna), even if one of them is a wolf. After all, he wouldn't be lynched until tomorrow, and in the mean time it would remove suspicion from herself.

I found Holbyltass's list to be rather a cop-out. No reasons offered, just trying to be agreeable as wolvishly possible; at least that's my sense. Yeah, I'm going back and forth on her.

Oh, and I'm starting to wonder if we maybe shouldn't have a Seer dream about Nilp anyway, just to save ourselves the headache of trying to figure out whether he's single, double, or triple bluffing, or not at all. Seriously.

I'm thinking we have enough viable candidates against whom there is real (if minimal) evidence to lynch and dream of besides Nilp, at least for the first Night.

I'm heading to bed (way too late) and will cast my vote in the morning, after which there will be 3 1/2 more hours for developments to have occurred. I hope more happens by the time I vote than yesterday.