Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[The Elf-warrior]

Originally Posted by dancing spawn of ungoliant

Elf-warrior defended morm in his first post and so did wilwa.

Wot! Actually, I chided mormegil not to rush to judgment in my first post, post 4. Then, I defended mormegil in post 25. You might be confused, you might be a wolf. I doubt Fea or Lhuna are wolves. Fea seems to be making sense. Lhuna howled like a wolf, you say? Well, where I come from there's a saying, "Live with wolves howl like a wolf." I'm not really suspicious of lmp. After all he might just be trying a random method of finding wolves.

Anything now is guesswork but I'm suspicious of TGWBS, Dancing Spawn and ?? Nilp.

I'll vote soon and then I'll be gone till the next DAY.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Interesting theory, this Morm/Eomer/Kitanna alliance. It goes something like this:

Morm: "I'm the executioner, let's get to work!"

Someone else (Elf-Warrior? Wilwa?): "A bit eager for bloodshed, Morm?"

Eomer: "It's ok, he's the executioner."

Kitanna: *crossposting, I believe* "He's the executioner; he's bloodthirsty by nature."

Every other rational person: "O yea. It's right at the start of the game where role-playing is all we have to amuse ourselves with."


How very suspicious indeed!

[The Only Real Estel]

Well it looks like there's a good chance that Nilp will be the one to be hung but I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon. It seems that the main evidence against him is that we are afraid of his mindgames, and besides, he...uh, might be a wolf. The problem with this method is what if he's a gifted villager? What if we end up hanging our seer on day one just because we were unnerved by him acting like he always does? I agree that we shouldn't just give him a free pass on the 'be yourself is all that you can be' (gah, I can't get rid of that song!) basis, but I had planned on checking him again on day two or three, when we at least had some more comments and some votes to go on. Oh well, it looks to late anyway.

Wilwa, your explanation mostly satisfied me, though I think you might still bear some watching.

I am not feeling very happy with TGWBS for being the first to jump on the Nilp bandwagon (started by Nilp himself). I don't buy the whole, 'I don't see anyone who volunteered himself' to be lynched theory at all. If Nilp is an ordinary villager he may actually have been doing us all a service by voting for himself. If he knew that he wouldn't be able to vote later but had nothing to go on now he voted for someone he knew to be ordinary, rather than accidently guide suspicions in the direction of a guardian or somebody else.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If Nilp is gifted then, in the future, my ghost will make his ghost's afterlife a nightmare (and I suspect the ghosts of every other villager will do likewise).

It's looking like he's going to die first. If he's innocent he had better be ordinary...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

and besides, he...uh, might be a wolf. The problem with this method is what if he's a gifted villager? What if we end up hanging our seer on day one just because we were unnerved by him acting like he always does?

Do you think the Seer would really be running around screaming "LYNCH ME! LYNCH! DO IT NOW!" On the first day? I don't think the Seer would even dream of voting for him/herself...ever.

If Nilp is an ordinary villager he may actually have been doing us all a service by voting for himself. If he knew that he wouldn't be able to vote later but had nothing to go on now he voted for someone he knew to be ordinary, rather than accidently guide suspicions in the direction of a guardian or somebody else.

This may be true, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

EDIT: I'd like to add though Nilp said he was innocent he might simply have been trying to confuse us. As I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

This is so difficult. I'm sure we are all familiar with the strategy of lynching ordinary villagers as being preferable to lynching gifted villagers. In theory this idea sounds OK at first but delve deeper and you discover that the strategy does not offer a hell of a lot more than voting honestly, and openly declaring who you think the wolves are.

I really don't think Nilp is a wolf. I am understanding of why people are voting for him but it wouldn't feel right to go against my heart like this. I just can't vote for someone I have zero suspicion for. I'm not sure how much this will matter though because time is running out and it's hard to say how many votes will actually be received.

[wilwarin538]

Ok well I think I'll vote know and see what happens.

++Mormegil

~Wilwa

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The Elf-warrior and wilwa, I'm so sorry, you're absolutely right. I wasn't careful enough while searching your posts. Sorry. But that doesn't mean that I'll abandon my theory.

I don't want to vote for Nilp for the same reasons as Estel.

Some people have remained really silent today but I think it's understandable since no-one has anything certain to say...maybe.

I'll vote soon.

[The Only Real Estel]

posted by Kitanna:

Do you think the Seer would really be running around screaming "LYNCH ME! LYNCH! DO IT NOW!" On the first day? I don't think the Seer would even dream of voting for him/herself...eve

Which is exactly why Nilp might do it. He probably wouldn't though, that's a good point; but I could still see him having a lesser gifted role & doing what he did.

Posted by Kitanna:

This may be true, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

Which is why I was going to check back once we had more to work with.

Posted by Kitanna:

EDIT: I'd like to add though Nilp said he was innocent he might simply have been trying to confuse us. As I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

He could've been. But with a few more days & more evidence we would've had a better idea. Personally, I'd be very suprised if Nilp was a wolf. If you think he's innocent than don't bandwagon, vote for either TGWBS or someone else totally different - the worst thing you could do would be bandwagon just because 'it looks like he's going to die'.

Edit: Perhaps I've come on to strong on TGWBS, I have no evidence against him other than him jumping at Nilp, but I can see from his point of view on that. I just don't buy it. I would like to revist his case a few days from now, but if I do that Nilp will probably die. *Sigh* I hate all these decisions, I'd better have a quick smoke.

[mormegil]

I am going to stick with who I feel most guilty.

++DURELIN

This may look like a knee-jerk reaction, however remember please that I initially suspected her and yet she admitted she was voting for me simply because I voted for her.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Durelin also suggested we debate who the Seer should dream about and who the Guardian should protect. She has since been quiet about our lack of activity on that front. I am still pondering this idea. I can't quite figure out if this is a genuine innocent's idea. Is she trying to pinpoint the Seer?

[Firefoot]

You only have 20 minutes left, and six of you have not voted. You can't all wait till the last minute, you know.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

*Sigh* I hate all these decisions, I'd better have a quick smoke.

Beware! Halflings' leaf may slow your mind.

I would feel more comfortable if lmp and Elf-warrior had given reasons for their votes for TGWBS.

Ok, I don't have much time left (well, none of us has) so here goes nothing.
++DURELIN. And that's because of the reasons that Eomer said and because she has posted really often but she hasn't really said anything. Sorry, but that's my vote today.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

If you think he's innocent than don't bandwagon, vote for either TGWBS or someone else totally different - the worst thing you could do would be bandwagon just because 'it looks like he's going to die'.

That's quite true, but I went back to Nilp's post to read and reread and reread once more for good measure. 50% of me thinks he is a wolf, just trying to trick us. 40% of me thinks he's a regular old villager trying to save a gifted villager. 10% of me thinks he's the cobbler. Only I don't think the cobbler would volunteer to be lynched on day one. But I am an easily swayed person. I may yet change my vote, but for now I keep my vote for Nilp.

[The Only Real Estel]

I may yet change my vote, but for now I keep my vote for Nilp

Irretractable votes. But that's okay, I guess, he's gone anyway. Let's just hope he's either a wolf (unlikely to me), an ordinary villager (hopefully), or a cobbler (unlikely to me).

By the way, Firefoot, I know with the Cursed Villager the villagers don't know they've hung the Cursed. If Nilp is the cobbler will we know it or will he just look like an innocent villager until the end of the game?

[Firefoot]

I'll let you know if you kill the cobbler.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Morm

This may look like a knee-jerk reaction, however remember please that I initially suspected her and yet she admitted she was voting for me simply because I voted for her.

Hehe, well, we all know first day voting is completely...well, pointless. I really had nothing to go on...and so, I went with the only person who said I was *suspicious*. Knowing my own innocence...why not vote for who thinks I'm not? *shrugs* I wouldn't say anyone was being wolfish just for that...but that's just me. Maybe I'm too old for this sort of thing...

Originally Posted by Eomer

Durelin also suggested we debate who the Seer should dream about and who the Guardian should protect. She has since been quiet about our lack of activity on that front. I am still pondering this idea. I can't quite figure out if this is a genuine innocent's idea. Is she trying to pinpoint the Seer?

Uh huh...Well, earlier I went off to tend to my flowers, figuring that when I came back some progress would be made in that direction. But I was wrong, so I thought I might give everyone a good kick in the rear.

I think Durelin is going to get herself lynched by acting in such a way, but I think she's probably innocent. She seems eager to help.

Now I might give Nilp a run for his money, eh?

Time to really get to hunting werewolves now that two innocents are dead...

Edelweiss are calling...

~Rhodedendron Durelin