Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[The Only Real Estel]

Well it looks like there's a good chance that Nilp will be the one to be hung but I'm not going to jump on that bandwagon. It seems that the main evidence against him is that we are afraid of his mindgames, and besides, he...uh, might be a wolf. The problem with this method is what if he's a gifted villager? What if we end up hanging our seer on day one just because we were unnerved by him acting like he always does? I agree that we shouldn't just give him a free pass on the 'be yourself is all that you can be' (gah, I can't get rid of that song!) basis, but I had planned on checking him again on day two or three, when we at least had some more comments and some votes to go on. Oh well, it looks to late anyway.

Wilwa, your explanation mostly satisfied me, though I think you might still bear some watching.

I am not feeling very happy with TGWBS for being the first to jump on the Nilp bandwagon (started by Nilp himself). I don't buy the whole, 'I don't see anyone who volunteered himself' to be lynched theory at all. If Nilp is an ordinary villager he may actually have been doing us all a service by voting for himself. If he knew that he wouldn't be able to vote later but had nothing to go on now he voted for someone he knew to be ordinary, rather than accidently guide suspicions in the direction of a guardian or somebody else.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If Nilp is gifted then, in the future, my ghost will make his ghost's afterlife a nightmare (and I suspect the ghosts of every other villager will do likewise).

It's looking like he's going to die first. If he's innocent he had better be ordinary...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

and besides, he...uh, might be a wolf. The problem with this method is what if he's a gifted villager? What if we end up hanging our seer on day one just because we were unnerved by him acting like he always does?

Do you think the Seer would really be running around screaming "LYNCH ME! LYNCH! DO IT NOW!" On the first day? I don't think the Seer would even dream of voting for him/herself...ever.

If Nilp is an ordinary villager he may actually have been doing us all a service by voting for himself. If he knew that he wouldn't be able to vote later but had nothing to go on now he voted for someone he knew to be ordinary, rather than accidently guide suspicions in the direction of a guardian or somebody else.

This may be true, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

EDIT: I'd like to add though Nilp said he was innocent he might simply have been trying to confuse us. As I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

This is so difficult. I'm sure we are all familiar with the strategy of lynching ordinary villagers as being preferable to lynching gifted villagers. In theory this idea sounds OK at first but delve deeper and you discover that the strategy does not offer a hell of a lot more than voting honestly, and openly declaring who you think the wolves are.

I really don't think Nilp is a wolf. I am understanding of why people are voting for him but it wouldn't feel right to go against my heart like this. I just can't vote for someone I have zero suspicion for. I'm not sure how much this will matter though because time is running out and it's hard to say how many votes will actually be received.

[wilwarin538]

Ok well I think I'll vote know and see what happens.

++Mormegil

~Wilwa

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

The Elf-warrior and wilwa, I'm so sorry, you're absolutely right. I wasn't careful enough while searching your posts. Sorry. But that doesn't mean that I'll abandon my theory.

I don't want to vote for Nilp for the same reasons as Estel.

Some people have remained really silent today but I think it's understandable since no-one has anything certain to say...maybe.

I'll vote soon.

[The Only Real Estel]

posted by Kitanna:

Do you think the Seer would really be running around screaming "LYNCH ME! LYNCH! DO IT NOW!" On the first day? I don't think the Seer would even dream of voting for him/herself...eve

Which is exactly why Nilp might do it. He probably wouldn't though, that's a good point; but I could still see him having a lesser gifted role & doing what he did.

Posted by Kitanna:

This may be true, but we have no way of knowing for sure.

Which is why I was going to check back once we had more to work with.

Posted by Kitanna:

EDIT: I'd like to add though Nilp said he was innocent he might simply have been trying to confuse us. As I said, damned if you do, damned if you don't.

He could've been. But with a few more days & more evidence we would've had a better idea. Personally, I'd be very suprised if Nilp was a wolf. If you think he's innocent than don't bandwagon, vote for either TGWBS or someone else totally different - the worst thing you could do would be bandwagon just because 'it looks like he's going to die'.

Edit: Perhaps I've come on to strong on TGWBS, I have no evidence against him other than him jumping at Nilp, but I can see from his point of view on that. I just don't buy it. I would like to revist his case a few days from now, but if I do that Nilp will probably die. *Sigh* I hate all these decisions, I'd better have a quick smoke.

[mormegil]

I am going to stick with who I feel most guilty.

++DURELIN

This may look like a knee-jerk reaction, however remember please that I initially suspected her and yet she admitted she was voting for me simply because I voted for her.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Durelin also suggested we debate who the Seer should dream about and who the Guardian should protect. She has since been quiet about our lack of activity on that front. I am still pondering this idea. I can't quite figure out if this is a genuine innocent's idea. Is she trying to pinpoint the Seer?

[Firefoot]

You only have 20 minutes left, and six of you have not voted. You can't all wait till the last minute, you know.

[The Only Real Estel]

Well, I see no reason for waiting any longer to vote. I'm not voting for Nilp and though I was disappointed that TGWBS touched off the voting on said resident-suspicioner I have no reason other than that to suspect him of guilt. In fact I see no one that I'm sure of, so I will vote for ++Oromin, and the only 'reason' I can give for that is that he/she (sorry) has only posted once. But I don't expect to see Oro lynched anyway, so I won't feel guilty about that reasoning...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I think Durelin is going to get herself lynched by acting in such a way, but I think she's probably innocent. She seems eager to help.

I must vote for:

++ODDWEN

She voted for tgwbs at a critical point when votes were just starting. The posts preceding her vote suggested that a lynch tgwbs train was just starting to roll, and indeed he has garnered three (I think) votes, for nothing altogether suspicious, in my view.

I know it's slightly outrageous and left-of-centre, but I think she's doing well at hiding; she's voted for someone I don't consider suspicious (indeed she started these votes), and I have a feeling she might be a wolf. Genuinely.

It won't matter because Nilp's going to get lynched. If I can speak to Oddwen tomorrow then maybe she can convince me of her innocence. I don't think this vote will matter too much but there it is.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

*Sigh* I hate all these decisions, I'd better have a quick smoke.

Beware! Halflings' leaf may slow your mind.

I would feel more comfortable if lmp and Elf-warrior had given reasons for their votes for TGWBS.

Ok, I don't have much time left (well, none of us has) so here goes nothing.
++DURELIN. And that's because of the reasons that Eomer said and because she has posted really often but she hasn't really said anything. Sorry, but that's my vote today.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

If you think he's innocent than don't bandwagon, vote for either TGWBS or someone else totally different - the worst thing you could do would be bandwagon just because 'it looks like he's going to die'.

That's quite true, but I went back to Nilp's post to read and reread and reread once more for good measure. 50% of me thinks he is a wolf, just trying to trick us. 40% of me thinks he's a regular old villager trying to save a gifted villager. 10% of me thinks he's the cobbler. Only I don't think the cobbler would volunteer to be lynched on day one. But I am an easily swayed person. I may yet change my vote, but for now I keep my vote for Nilp.

[The Only Real Estel]

I may yet change my vote, but for now I keep my vote for Nilp

Irretractable votes. But that's okay, I guess, he's gone anyway. Let's just hope he's either a wolf (unlikely to me), an ordinary villager (hopefully), or a cobbler (unlikely to me).

By the way, Firefoot, I know with the Cursed Villager the villagers don't know they've hung the Cursed. If Nilp is the cobbler will we know it or will he just look like an innocent villager until the end of the game?

[Firefoot]

I'll let you know if you kill the cobbler.

[The Elf-warrior]

Poor Feanor of the Peredhil. What a horrible way to have your belief confirmed. Sorry I didn't give any reasons for my suspicions or analyze the voting patterns, Dancing Spawn. I suspected you because you misread me and Wilwa's early posts. But I can see how you read them wrong. Unless things change, you're cleared. I don't think wanting to vote for me is really that suspicious. The main reason why I was suspicious of TGWBS was that he suggested preemptorily lynching Fea and Eomer. Later on I saw the smiley face at the end of his post and figured that he was joking about Eomer. When I re-read the thread today I saw were he said he was just joking. That includes the late Fea. I believe him so he's cleared unless things change. Nilp, of course, is dead and was an ordinary villager. I was suspicious of him because of his strange (Ordinary.) behaviour. I voted for The Guy because I didn't want to jump on the "Lynch Nilp." bandwagon. And yes, it did make sense to vote for him. I thought better of voting for you so I voted for The Guy. I didn't think he'd get lynched anyway.

I need to get off the computer so I'll post sometime in this DAY.

PS. I see Morm suspects a Kath/Guy conspiracy. I'd be more suspicious of Kath.

[Durelin]

Okay, I quickly went through everyone's post up till the end of Day 1. Here's my little synopsis...I know I've missed some things, and hopefully I'll be going over things again. And of course I'll need to update my list to include today's posting soon (I'll wait until a few more people have posted....).

Howling Lhuna: has fun being a lhunatic...doesn't say much

Unfortunate Fea: well, lies... liked to give info, jumped on Nilp bandwagon

Nilp: gets himself lynched

TGWBS: jokingly accuses people, says gifted shouldn't reveal themselves yet, suggests everyone lynch everyone, plays with his abacus, first to vote for Nilp

Encai: doesn't post much, says in a later post that Morm has been at the center of attention and she finds that suspicious, says Nilp makes her 'uneasy'

Rubberneck Oddwen: posts very little, says nothing, votes for TGWBS randomly

morm: picks to randomly lynch TGWBS using crazy numbers, becomes suspicious of me, and votes for me after I vote for him

lmp: watches the stars, posts briefly, says nothing but 'watch out for Lhuna' because of the moon, then votes for TGWBS

Saurreg: doesn't post much, says nothing much of importance, votes for Nilp after TGWBS does, says he's suspicious of Nilp right off the bat

Elf-warrior: Starts out cautioning morm, first to mention cobbler, says he's suspicious of TGWBS, Dancing Spawn, and maybe Nilp

wilwarin: Starts with agreeing with EW's caution, suggests that maybe morm is a 'bit eager for bloodshed', is confused, has bad feeling about morm and TGWBS, votes for morm

Kitanna: backs up morm in post directly following Eomer's, says she'll pull someone randomly when she votes, but then agrees with Fea and votes for Nilp

Estel: emphasizes the first lynch is a shot in the dark, first to mention Oddwen (someone who hadn't posted yet at that point), talks about how the Seer should hint

Eomer: backs up morm concerning wilwarin's accusation, says Fea and Morm are at the top of his list, but says he really has no idea, and then 'lets them off the hook', didn't think Nilp was a wolf

Oromin: posts very little, says nothing

Kath: urges that gifted should not reveal themselves yet, has 'ill feelings' about TGWBS

dancing spawn: says it's never too early to 'throw death plans', gives statistics, says The Elf-warrior, wilwa, and mrm are the wolves (perhaps jokingly), suggests suspicion of wilwarin, then votes for me without previously mentioning me

Me: Posts a lot, doesn't say much, votes for her accuser knowing that Nilp's probably going to die, suggests that they do something about the Seer and such once but then doesn't say anything about it again...maybe because I didn't say much at all after that on the day, and there wasn't much to say, since my words concerning the Seer and other gifteds were basically ignored until people were suspicious of me.

Mainly I'm stating what's gone on (which ain't much, really), and have included a bit in defense of myself. Hope you don't mind... Also please note that the list is in no particular order...

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Morm

This may look like a knee-jerk reaction, however remember please that I initially suspected her and yet she admitted she was voting for me simply because I voted for her.

Hehe, well, we all know first day voting is completely...well, pointless. I really had nothing to go on...and so, I went with the only person who said I was *suspicious*. Knowing my own innocence...why not vote for who thinks I'm not? *shrugs* I wouldn't say anyone was being wolfish just for that...but that's just me. Maybe I'm too old for this sort of thing...

Originally Posted by Eomer

Durelin also suggested we debate who the Seer should dream about and who the Guardian should protect. She has since been quiet about our lack of activity on that front. I am still pondering this idea. I can't quite figure out if this is a genuine innocent's idea. Is she trying to pinpoint the Seer?

Uh huh...Well, earlier I went off to tend to my flowers, figuring that when I came back some progress would be made in that direction. But I was wrong, so I thought I might give everyone a good kick in the rear.

I think Durelin is going to get herself lynched by acting in such a way, but I think she's probably innocent. She seems eager to help.

Now I might give Nilp a run for his money, eh?

Time to really get to hunting werewolves now that two innocents are dead...

Edelweiss are calling...

~Rhodedendron Durelin

[wilwarin538]

That was definetly a terrible way to die. I suppose we are lucky though, that she wasn't gifted, but it is still upsetting. I will be away for most of today, so don't expect to hear much from me.

**walks away playing "Another one bites the dust"**