Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[The Elf-warrior]

Poor Feanor of the Peredhil. What a horrible way to have your belief confirmed. Sorry I didn't give any reasons for my suspicions or analyze the voting patterns, Dancing Spawn. I suspected you because you misread me and Wilwa's early posts. But I can see how you read them wrong. Unless things change, you're cleared. I don't think wanting to vote for me is really that suspicious. The main reason why I was suspicious of TGWBS was that he suggested preemptorily lynching Fea and Eomer. Later on I saw the smiley face at the end of his post and figured that he was joking about Eomer. When I re-read the thread today I saw were he said he was just joking. That includes the late Fea. I believe him so he's cleared unless things change. Nilp, of course, is dead and was an ordinary villager. I was suspicious of him because of his strange (Ordinary.) behaviour. I voted for The Guy because I didn't want to jump on the "Lynch Nilp." bandwagon. And yes, it did make sense to vote for him. I thought better of voting for you so I voted for The Guy. I didn't think he'd get lynched anyway.

I need to get off the computer so I'll post sometime in this DAY.

PS. I see Morm suspects a Kath/Guy conspiracy. I'd be more suspicious of Kath.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

PS. I see Morm suspects a Kath/Guy conspiracy. I'd be more suspicious of Kath.

I do, however I can see a possibility of that though I don't suspect it much.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Hmm. Did you really not notice that he was joking Elf-Warrior?

And what of Oddwen and littlemanpoet? I want to hear from those two.

Now, I know what you're thinking: Why is Eomer defending tgwbs? Well, I'm not so much defending him as I am accusing the others of acting strangely. I don't understand how tgwbs managed to garner three votes on DAY 1. Perhaps it's not Oddwen I should have voted for; perhaps I should have turned my attention toward Elf-Warrior and especially littlemanpoet.

Let's look at those three:

Oddwen started the voting for tgwbs, shortly after the murmurs against guy were starting. He looked like the second target (after Nilp, of course). Plus she was hiding. I admit that's not too much to go on but I knew my vote was going to be unimportant anyway so I didn't feel bad about throwing Oddwen's name into the mix.

The Elf-Warrior has actually had exchanges with tgwbs. He was suspicious of guy over what seemed to me clear mirth (maybe it's just because I was a central character in the mirth. ) His vote is slightly more understandable, but I doubt he really took guy that seriously.

And littlemanpoet voted for tgwbs for no discernible reason, as far as I can tell, at a time when he was second (I think) in the 'lynch list'.

I'll have to reiterate: I am not really supporting the guy who be short here; I am more interested in the behaviour of those who voted for him. I'd love to hear from you three. As yesterday showed, I am easily swayed!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Thanks, mormegil, for the statistics.
Ok, here's something I gathered from Fea's posts.

Post #52: Fea joked that she'd like to lynch mormegil and TGWBS.

Post #73: Fea is suspicious of TQWBS.

Post #74: Fea submits a scheme of mormegil being one of the wolves.

Excluding Nilp, TQWBS and mormegil (and Durelin) are the ones to gather most votes.

At this point Fea gets killed and she is proven innocent.

Did the wolves hope that we'd rush to vote for either of those two just because Fea was "pure and innocent as the wind driven snow"? Or are morm and Guy really double-bluffing wolves?


ps. Elf-warrior, thanks for understanding. I try to be more careful from now on.

[mormegil]

Spawn please explain a little bit more what you are saying. I'm not fully understanding your conclusion. And I would like to be clear on it.

Did the wolves hope that we'd rush to vote for either of those two just because Fea was "pure and innocent as the wind driven snow"? Or are morm and Guy really double-bluffing wolves?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by morm

Spawn please explain a little bit more what you are saying.

Sorry, I type faster than I think... or is it vice versa?

The wolves killed Fea and, of course, they knew that we'd analyze what she has said. Fea was suspicious of both mormegil and TGWBS and after Nilp, they were the two most suspicious people yesterday (according to voting).

There are two options in my theory.

Option number 1) Mormegil and (or) TGWBS are not guilty. The wolves hoped that we'd follow the suspicions of an innocent villager and we'd lynch morm or TGWBS today and the culprits would be safe at least until tomorrow. But we won't kill them because we realized what the wolves are up to.

Option number 2) Mormegil and (or) TGWBS are guilty. The wolves hoped that we'd go for option number one.

Am I making more sense now? I hope I am 'cause I don't know how I could explain this better.

[The Only Real Estel]

Option number 2) Mormegil and (or) TGWBS are guilty. The wolves hoped that we'd go for option number one

Interesting theory, Spawn, but I'm having trouble seeing the wolves taking such a bold risk as to incriminate two of their kind by killing Fea when they probably could've left her alone and relied on the misguideness of the innocent villagers to do the job for them.

Edit:

Eomer said:

And littlemanpoet voted for tgwbs for no discernible reason, as far as I can tell, at a time when he was second (I think) in the 'lynch list'.

I assumed that littlemanpoet was voting for tgwbs because of the way he jumped at Nilp's vote against himself. I felt like doing the same thing but decided it was probably better not to.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

Interesting theory, Spawn, but I'm having trouble seeing the wolves taking such a bold risk as to incriminate two of their kind by killing Fea when they probably could've left her alone and relied on the misguideness of the innocent villagers to do the job for them.

Ok, I have another two options.

Option number 1) The wolves are gamblers.

Option number 2) Only one of them is a wolf and the wolves are just using the other.

[Encaitare]

Oh, dear, somehow poor Fea had it coming. Ungoliant's theories are sound -- the trouble is, which one of them is true, or closer to the truth? Another motive the wolves might have had for killing Fea was that she was big on compiling information, nice and neat, for all of us to see. I would say that morm and TGWBS might merit some watching, but that's about it for now. I sincerely doubt that both of them would be wolves.

Edit: cross-posted with ungoliant.

[littlemanpoet]

Please take note, fellow villagers, that I stood back and watched during the lynching of the innocent Nilpaurion. I told you but you would not listen. You who voted for him have no one to blame but yourselves. Why, oh why, does "lynch me" seem to always be obeyed? Will foolish, unenlightened blood-lusting villagers always be swayed by such harmless insanity? As you all now know, Nilpaurion was not in his right mind, or perhaps it would be better stated that he had two too many minds in one head, which is to say that indeed he was crazy, and maybe even wanted to die, but he was not a werewolf, and most of you who voted for him knew it. For shame.

You ask why the werewolves ended the life of Feanor of the Peredhil? Allow me to lend some thoughts to that. They viewed her as dangerous. So say the stars. She was right about something. They dared not leave her alive. So do review what she said, for she made good sense, save for the obligatory lies.

Why did I vote for Guy? Because he is not himself. Before the Moon did its silvery damage and changed him into a lycanthrope, so say the stars, he was always quite helpful and ready to analyze and strategize and plan in the most helpful ways. Yet yesterDay he went wild with accusations, as if he were playing at both life and death. And, he hopped on the innocent Nilpaurion. I still think he is clever and strategic, but this time I think it is so in terms of double bluff, for what villagers would suspect WereGuy of being so stewpid as to so obviously jump on an innocent lynch victim?

I am sorry that I had not the time to explain my vote better yesterDay. My normal means of communicating with all of you has been rendered useless. Let's just say that means that my voice doesn't work except at specific times. Those times are: 11 am until noon GMT, then for one single half hour roughly five hours after that, then for perhaps one hour more roughly four hours after that. And most of that time is spent playing catch-up as to what others have been saying, not to mention discerning the movements of the heavens.

I will make no further defense. My posts speak for themselves.

[The Only Real Estel]

Posted by Eomer:

For what it's worth, she claims to have suspected tgwbs in an early post

That's the problem, she suspected too many people for us to have much to go on. Fea suspected TGWBS, Lhuna, Oddwen, Saurreg, Morm, Eomer, & Kitanna. Of course she suspected some of those less and some of those more.

Because Fea would've been a prime suspect to at least direct suspicion on, if not lynch, I'm assuming she nailed a werewolf or two in there. Unfortunately, there are a few too many people to just go ahead & lynch everyone looking for the wolf.

I looked at the votes and the defending/accusing patterns of everyone and still have no real suspects, although I agree with morm that at the very least Kath deserves watching.