Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[The Only Real Estel]

Posted by Kitanna about Oddwen:

Glad to see two innocent villagers dead? That can't possibly be normal.

This would be disturbing but I see it from this point of view: You can't possibly tell me that you're not glad to see that there's only two 'ordinary' villagers dead & not our hunter & our seer or something like that. That's what I'm assuming Oddwen was talking about.

Personally, I'm a little suspicious of Oromin and Lhuna for their lack of posting. I know Lhuna is in a different time zone, but she's only posted once (by my count) & Oromin has only posted twice. Not that I can declare them wolves for this, but at the very least I'm watching them.

Here's a quick synopsis of things that have happened that I deem important (on the first day only, I'm afraid) & my suspicions (which I really have none of right now):

Dancing Spawn - jokes about lynching Saurreg because of his difficult-to-understand posts, thinks the wolves might be The Elf-warrior, wilwa and mormegil (#82), begans to voice suspicious of Wilwa (#87), partially pardons Elf-warrior & wilwa (#109), doesn't want to vote for Nilp for the same reasons as me (still #109), votes for Durelin (#115)

Durelin - suggests that we talk over who to Guard & who to dream about (#78), feels like voting for Morm because he is suspicious of her (#84), votes for Morm (#93)

Elf-warrior - Defends Fea & Lhuna, suspicious of Dancing Spawn, TGWBS, & Nilp (#101), votes for TGWBS (#105)

Encai - Suspicious of Nilp & a little bit suspicious of Morm, put some stock in Fea's morm/emoer/kitanna theory (#100), votes for Nilp (#119)

Eomer - Defends Morm (#9), has a 'feeling' that Nilp is innocent (#71), wonders why Morm has included Elf-Warrior in his list is slightly troubled by Fea (#83), is somewhat suspicious of Wilwa (#88), concludes that he has found Wilwa not likely to be a wolf (#94), Excuses Fea (#98), & Morm at least until later (#99), wonders if Durelin's suggestion of the seer & guardian being discussed is an innocent one or not (would a wolf bring this out against a fellow wolf? probably not) (#114), thinks Durelin might get herself lynched by continuing to act 'this way' but suspects that she is probably innocent, votes for Oddwen (#122)

Feanor - Minds games as usual, advices to watch out for Nilp hiding behind his normal self & suspects that Wilwa is innocent (#58), suspicious of TGWBS, Theory1- Lhuna/Oddwen/Saurreg as wolves, trying to take out innocent Nilp. LMP is Seer in this scenario. Role thinly veiled with astrology talk. Perhaps morm as Seer? Theory2- Mormegil/Eomer/Kitanna as wolves. They all defend Mormegil (knowing that defending would be stupid for wolves, they all did it to throw us off the track- #74) suggests lynching Lhuna & Saurreg (Saurreg jokingly) (still #74), votes for Nilp despite the fact that she 'doesn't think he's guilty' because she 'would hate for him to win the game as a wolf behind the cloak of normalacy' (that's more or less what she said ) (#95)

Kath - Told TGWBS that it's to early to be throwing death plans around (#19), defended Fea, goes after TGWBS again for jokes & going after Elf-Warrior on a 'whim' (#68 & #70), does not vote

Kitanna - Defends Morm (#10), jokes about voting for Saurreg, suspicious of TGWBS & a little worried about Fea (#81), suspicious of Fea & Guy for 'silly & pointless reasons', suspicious of morm, thinks Nilp is probably innocent, says Wilwa bears watching, votes for Nilp (#102)

Lhuna - Howls like a wolf? does not vote...

LMP - Seems to half-suspect Lhuna (#33), talks about 'star charts' and how 'reliable' they are (#66), wonders why people who don't suspect Nilp vote for him (here, here!), says that Eomer, Morm, Wilwa, Spawn, and Saurreg are probably innocent & that Saurreg is the sherrif (unlikely I think), finds Fea likely innocent, votes for TGWBS (#107)

Mormegil - Proposes random method (#32), defends Fea, suspects Saurreg, suspection lists- 1.Durelin 2.Elf-warrior 3.Encai 4.Saurreg & 1.Kath 2.Dancing Spawn 3.Oddwen 4.Oromin 5.TGWBS (#75), says Durelin & Elf-warrior are acting somewhat the same but he's more suspicious of Durelin (#97), votes for Durelin insisting that it's NOT a knee-jerk reaction (#113)

Nilp - Says he's "NOT THE COBBLER", votes for himself,


Oddwen - accuses Nilp, suspicious of Wilwa & TGWBS, somewhat suspicious of Morm & Saurreg (#77)


Oromin - not much to go on, does not vote


Saurreg - After Nilp (#55), votes for Nilp (#90)


TGWBS - Jokingly suggests mass-suicide, then jokingly accuses most of the people in the village (#44), votes for Nilp because he's 'going to confuse me anyway' & he wants to get his lynch rate up, suggests Nilp is hiding behind his 'normal way' of doing things (#91)


TORE - My innocence is for others to decide, though I will say truthfully that I am not the seer (if you couldn't tell that from my complete lack of suspicions!)

Wilwa - Quick to jump on Morm for being 'bloodthirsty' (#8), 'bad feeling' about Morm & TGWBS (#72), votes for Mormegil (#112)


Edit:

And also:
Posted by Elf-Warrior:

I doubt Fea or Lhuna are wolves. Fea seems to be making sense. Lhuna howled like a wolf, you say? Well, where I come from there's a saying, "Live with wolves howl like a wolf."

That sounds mostly like a defense of Lhuna, & an interesteing sounding one at that. Almost as if he's making a saying up to support Lhuna because there's no other evidence. Right now I'm thinking that either Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are wolves (unlikely), Elf-Warrior is the seer & used his dream on Lhuna (unlikely), or perhaps Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are our Sherrifs. I'd be curious on everyone else's thoughts on that...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by The Only Real Estel

This would be disturbing but I see it from this point of view: You can't possibly tell me that you're not glad to see that there's only two 'ordinary' villagers dead & not our hunter & our seer or something like that. That's what I'm assuming Oddwen was talking about.

I suppose, but at first glance her statement did look rather heartless. But I guess I can't really hold that against her.

Right now I'm thinking that either Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are wolves (unlikely), Elf-Warrior is the seer & used his dream on Lhuna (unlikely), or perhaps Elf-Warrior & Lhuna are our Sherrifs. I'd be curious on everyone else's thoughts on that...

I'm leaning toward Elf-Warrior being a wolf more then a Sherrif, but I'm not really all that sure. I'm flip-flopping on him. I'm not so sure about Lhuna. Her post just made me think she was a harmless lunatic. I'd like to see what she has to say today.

[The Elf-warrior]

I don't really have time to comment and it's late. I probably won't be on again for the rest of the DAY. Thus I'll vote now for ++Durelin. Her plan for having a consensus about who the Seer should dream about makes it hard for the Seer to reveal that person's true identity without blowing his or her cover. Which is exactly what a wolf would want.

"Live with wolves howl like a wolf."

Almost as if he's making a saying up to support Lhuna because there's no other evidence.

That is an actual saying from the land of my ancestors. *Howls at the waning gibbous moon.*

I would like to clarify the reasons for my vote yesterday. I didn't realize that The guy was just joking about Feanor. It seemed to me that he was calling for the death of likely innocents. Nobody else seemed very suspicious, and I decided against bandwagoning against Nilp, so I voted for him.

[mormegil]

Okay I've reread everything all at once looking for behavior patterns/changes that are characteristic of wolves. I have some findings that I would like to share. Now I feel confident in my findings and I'm very certain that I am at least 50% correct.

TGWBS--We ought not accuse him of being a blacksmith anylonger. His shop is a cobblers shop. He could be a wolf playing the cobbler but I think he's the cobbler. No sense in killing him until we don't know a wolf. But this would explain his weird and somewhat suspicious behavior. He's being a bit erradic

Durelin--I feel most confident that she is a wolf. In post 12, 15, and 93 (bottom line on 93) she attempts to distance herself from wolves. A bit too obvious if you ask me. In post 78 she wants the gifted to essentially expose themselves but gives up when no interest is shown. Post 84 basically says she'll vote for me because of a knee-jerk reaction and in post 93 she tries to quell that idea and say I'm a random pick. I strongly believe her to be a wolf.

Encaitare--Post 54 a wolfish tatic. Attempts to disassociate even being familar with Firefoot's name. A subtle attempt at showing innocence. Post 100 suggests that Eomer/Mormegil/Kitanna are the wolf trio. I know I am innocent, am fairly certain that Eomer is innocent, and Kitanna is neutral right now. When somebody is suspicious of three people I believe innocent it is an indicator to me. Post 159 her reaction to my accusation is telling. I believe as innocents we should be willing to die if needed. Those who only defend themselves appear lupine to me and this is what Encai has been doing. I'm somewhere around 60% certain she is a wolf too.

Now my third wolf is tricky and I have little certainty but I would say it's either Oddwen or Wilwarin. But my certainty is nominal at best.

Spawn--In rereading I am more convinced of her innocence than I was previously and more convinced of Oddwen's guilt.

There is my list. Unless something changes I probably will vote Durelin. Although I would like to hear much more from Oromin and Lhuna.

PS this village is a bit too blood thirsty...not even letting an executioner do his proper job. Well I'll have you know I've sharpened my axe and hope it finds Durelin's and Encai's neck soon.

Edit: Cross post with Elf-warrior but it looks like I have some support for Durelin.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Oromin

As far as I see it, the only reason the wolves got Fea was because she said something that scared them.

Want to hear two options more?

Option number 1) The wolves thought Fea's the Seer (as TGWBS suggested)

Option number 2) Fea's suspicions were way off the track and the wolves killed her so that nothing could point them out.

I'm still suspicious of Durelin, too.

I'll post more later.

[Lhunardawen]

*laughs at the goings-on*

What drove (some of) you to fall for Nilp's act, swallowing hook, line, and sinker? He was obviously innocent, at least to me.

And killing Fea...I do think it is a strange strategy the werewolves have come up with. Who would think of eliminating someone who gathers suspicion? But then again, maybe she was too confusing that the werewolves themselves were nearly confused with their own identities.

Werewolf 1: Look, Fea's suspicious.
Werewolf 2: Uh-huh. The villagers might think she's a werewolf.
Werewolf 3: Right. Let's kill her.

*laughs like a Lhunatic* But for your info, I was fairly certain of her innocence.

Before I begin my litany, I would like to explain the difference between suspicion and accusation. Suspicion says, "I think ____ is a werewolf. But I'm not really sure." Accusation says, "____ is, no doubt, a werewolf. Lynch him/her!" Got that? *laughs yet again*

Now, the usual.

Enca, lmp, Kitanna, Saurreg, Oromin, Kath, spawn, Estel, and morm are far from the arrows as of now. But everyone should be carefully watched in times like this. Notice that I did not associate the word innocent with them.

tgwbs is acting rather wolfish to me. But he is too wolfish. He might be a cobbler. If he is, he's doing a not-too-good job of hiding it, which, I believe, is actually the point of the role. Worth watching for a few more Days.

Eomer sees no reason to suspect tgwbs, and is very vocal about it. That somehow causes me to suspect him. I don't know why. Should I know why?

The E-w *laughs at the funny nickname* somehow managed to latch himself onto me by defending me. That leads me to think that he might be a werewolf trying to associate himself with an innocent, because I, as Kitanna said, am a harmless Lhunatic.

Durelin is quite noisy, but not exactly a loudmouth. That gathers questioning looks like my stuffed harp seal gathers dust.

Oddwen manages to dodge suspicions.

wilwa is either a confused newbie (I can identify with that) or a confused werewolf.

Lhuna is suspected due to too little substance and too much howling, and is about to howl for the sake of tradition.

*howls like a...wolf???*

At this time I am most likely to vote for Durelin for reasons already said by others. In fact, I might type her name in bold with two plus signs any time soon.

*howls again, for uniformity's sake*

[Lhunardawen]

++DURELIN

I am rarely, if ever, one to repeat what has been said. Take that how you will.

*hoooowls*

[littlemanpoet]

Confustigate it!

I was thinking that Morm was making some good sense, and thought I might vote for Durelin, but now it would be bandwagoning, and I hate bandwagoning!

Allow me to consult my star records and see what I may determine thereby.

Currently, the heavens seem to suggest that the following are innocent:
Kath, Morm, Saur, Estel. Not a long list.

The following seem neutral to me: Spawn, Eomer, Oddwen, Oromin, Wilwa.

The following seem wolfish: Durelin, Elf-warrior, Kitanna, Guy.

This was just from reading over posts in general, and concentrating on some of the more analytical posts. I grant you that this is far from scientific, but the skies have been rather cloudy these last few nights, truth be told.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

The following seem wolfish: Durelin, Elf-warrior, Kitanna, Guy.

I agree. They are exactly the four most suspicious person to me, too. Mormegil may be right about TGWBS being the cobbler, though.

I'm beginning to find Kitanna even more suspicious than Durelin. Kitanna doesn't post very much and it seems that she's just being a fly on the wall. A fly with sharp claws, mind you.

About her voting for Nilp:

Kitanna disengaged herself from all responsibility and possible consequences by saying that her vote is random. When it'd turn out that Nilp's innocent, she could just say:"Bad luck, eh? But don't blame me, I could have voted for anybody."

She jumped on the Nilp bandwagon although, according to her own words, she thought that he wasn't guilty!

When Kitanna voted, she said:

It seems that Nilp is headed for the ax anyway.

At his point four people out of eighteen had voted for Nilp and there were still twelve votes yet to cast.

Kitanna was suspicious of TGWBS for "silly and pointless reasons". Hmm... Later in her post #155 Kitanna defends TGWBS quite much but in the end she says that she's somewhat suspicious of him, anyway. To me this seems like an obligatory move:"I'm suspicious of one of my wolf colleagues so no-one's going to catch us."

[Kath]

Ok a look over what has been going on:

Nilp's death was unfortunate but at least he was not a gifted innocent seems to be the major consensus here, whereas as to me the thought should be, oh no we've killed an innocent, lets look at who voted for him! I can't believe that everyone who voted for him believed that he was a wolf, his act was just too obvious.

So:
Nilp - voted for himself but since we know he is an innocent we'll just have to agree that he's insane

TGWBS - voted for Nilp because he wanted the confusing loudmouths out of the way. As a wolf the death of Fea would fit with this way of thinking except that this might be just a little over obvious. So either this is a double bluff or he's hoping the obviousness will keep him from suspicion.

Saurreg - we have heard little from him but in his posts I can find nothing to suggest being a wolf. More will be needed to clear him but I have no suspicions towards him at the moment.

Fea - we know is innocent.

Kitanna - to be honest I think she voted for Nilp because he was ahead in votes and she didn't want to go for anyone else, perhaps for fear that if Nilp was a wolf she would be suspected for not voting for him.

Encai - I am not sure of her at all. I will watch her quite closely and make a decision later.

As for people who did not vote for Nilp:
Oddwen - again not sure on her, will need more posts.
Elf-warrior - I don't really suspect.
LMP - confuses me.
Mormegil - for once I think him innocent.
Durelin - seems to be the new suspect of the village and I can't say that I disagree.
Wilwarin - no idea, but probably innocent.
Dancing Spawn - I think likely to be innocent.
Oromin - maybe a wolf.
TORE - no t sure.
Eomer - I should say innocent.
Lhuna - the howling might be a Fea like idea, staying in the open to avoid suspicion.

[littlemanpoet]

Check out post # 131. I don't have the time to link it. If you think Elf Warrior is a werewolf, then this post helps me deduce that Wilwarin must be too. Maybe someone has said this already. Let's put all three (including Kitanna to trial. Lynch at least one of them, and let the Seer dream another one. Gee, if only there were two seers.....

EDIT: IF my computer starts working again I'll be okay for this weekend. Otherwise, I might not be able to vote toDay, nor be of much use Sat. or Sun. Sorry. I'll try though.

[The Only Real Estel]

This is more or else my train of thought on DAY One:

Bah, Cobbler. Of all the roles, this is the one that I understand the least. Just my luck. I suppose I should (1) cause confusion (2) don't accuse wolves, but I'd also like to stick around past the first few days so I can be a bigger help so I need to (3) act like an innocent villager would.

Okay, here we go. Hmm, Morm makes a typical in-character post & Wilwarin jumps on it - seems like a wolvish trick. Woh, what the heck? I swear I can't understand a word of what Saurreg says without reading it three or four times. *Sigh* Nilp votes for himself? Fire & brimstone, it's the end of the world. I think I'll do a bit of double-bluffing of a sort & ask some questions about the Cobbler's role. I think I'll drop a hint, something about peaches (my peach cobbler hint) - I doubt anyone will catch it, but that doesn't really matter. Ah, Dancing Spawn's picked up on Wilwarin as well, I suppose if she might be a wolf than I'd better give a short defense of her (#85). Now this is strange. Eomer is lightly accusing & then quickly pardoning villagers at lightening speed (Fea, Morm, Wilwa, Durelin). That is what I considered doing to keep active while never really comitting to anyone. Since I am not innocent & he is acting like me I think I'll keep an eye on that. TGWBS has started the Nilp bandwagon, as an innocent villager I should bring this up (#104). Oops, that wasn't very smart if he's a wolf I'd better back off (#111). Now Kitanna is giving screwy reasons for why she's voting for Nilp - I'd better speak up (#111). Bah, I need to cast a vote but I don't want to draw attention to any wolves. Hmm, how about Oromin? She's only posted once so I'll use that as my reason so it doesn't look like I'm playing completely at random <---boy, some cobbler I was, voting for a wolf on the first DAY?

[The Saucepan Man]

Congratulations to all involved for what, from the perspective of an interested bystander, was an extremely enjoyable game. Particular congrats to Firefoot for an excellent job as moderator.

But my greatest praise is reserved for Eomer and TORE, both of whom played a blinder in my opinion.

TORE, I think that your strategy worked extremely well. I never suspected you as the Cobbler (I had Saureg pinned for that role), and it seems like no one else did either. It was a bold strategy, but it paid dividends in the end.

Eomer, you took my breath away with the boldness of some of your moves. After Kitanna's death, I felt sure that it had been planned by the wolves so that they could use their role in bringing it about to justify their innocence. At first, I suspected mormegil and Kath ( ), but with them dead I began to watch you closely. With Oromin's death, I became pretty convinced that you were the remaining wolf, having taken the prime role in getting her lynched. It was a bold strategy, because it left you on your own, but it also meant that most of the remaining villagers were convinced of your innocence (with a little help from TORE).

But what I really admired was the way that you dealt with the remaining shirriff, jumping in to vote for Lhuna before anyone had time to organise a mass lynching (again, supported by TORE). As the lone wolf, I thought that you might have difficulties with the shirriffs, since if you killed one at night that would leave a known innocent the next day and the risk of being caught in an organised mass lynching. I presume that you held off attacking the shirriffs until the numbers were down in order to minimise that risk. You handled it extremely well, but I would be interested to hear what your thoughts were on this.

So, well done to the "Wolf" team (yes, that includes you, TORE), and thanks to all involved for some great entertainment.

My only complaint is that I missed enrolling by a day. It was a classic game, and I would love to have been involved.

[wilwarin538]

Wow, I really missed alot these past few days, even my own death.

That was alot of fun. I'm definetly going to try it again.

It was great Shirriffing with you Enca! Eomer and TORE, I didn't suspect you for a single second, you played well. All of you did.

[Kitanna]

Great game everyone!

I'm so glad to see that Eomer stayed on 'til the end. I was a little worried there, but he pulled through.

And Estel, excellent job as the cobbler.

[The Only Real Estel]

And Estel, excellent job as the cobbler

Thank you very much, Kitanna. Especially since I probably contributed to your death quite a bit on accident . But that will be included in my DAY two thoughts if I decide to post those.

[Durelin]

Eomer and TORE, you blow me away.

Great game everyone...absolutely suspenseful...you kept me up till 2 in the morning the night I knew I was going to get killed!

Hmm...Has anyone noticed my hints in my posts, yet? Or do I have to go back to bold them?

I swear I'll never live past the third night...

[The Only Real Estel]

My train of thought during DAY two:

Fea gone, eh? Strange choice, I would've thought they could've gotten her lynched within a day or two by twisting her words. Oh well. Pity she's just an ordo, though (ordinary villager). I see Kitanna slightly twists Oddwen's word & voices suspicions of her, a wolvish trick perhaps? I am still suspicious of her from yesterday. Ah, morm believes me innocent, excellent. Blast that Saurreg and his confusing posts! Or blast my inability to read them, whichever deserves it more. As an innocent villager I feel I should expose Kitanna's twisting of Oddwen's words (#160). Lhuna has been hanging around her brother too much...but hopefully this can be used to our advantage. Unless of course she is a bold bluffing wolf? I'd better think on this one. Ah, lmp thinks me innocent as well. Hmm, tgwbs suspects Lhuna of cobblery - now that's a card I could play to my favor later on. I'll have to bookmark that one...GASP! Lhuna nailed my strategy! I'd better 'clarify' what I think the cobbler is supposed to be doing (#176). Now Eomer proclaims me likely to be innocent, I wonder...I still believe him to be a wolf, could he have picked up on one of my hints? Eomer mentions suspicions of Kitanna but I doubt he'll act on them, I think they're both wolves. Nope no acting, in fact no further mention of Kitanna that I can see. Eomer & Kitanna jump to #1 & #2 on my list. Tgwbs resuspects Lhuna of cobblery, time to play my card (& I imagine I'll play it again many times)(#199). In fact I think I'll use that card to vote for Lhuna. She won't die anyway, so I still have no voting record to be tied to. And if she is a wolf than this one vote is doing no harm.