Tol-in-Gaurhoth VII (The Saga goes ever on and on)

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Orominuialwen

I'm the Cobbler. Please lynch me.

*raises an eyebrow*

Oh my, I killed poor Oddwen! With my theory on Elf-Warrior shot I'm not sure of the guilty anymore. I was wrong two days in a row. I don't want to make it three. Though my Elf-Warrior theory is shot I still find lmp to be innocent. I also think morm is innocent. I'm not sure about anyone else. Though Wilwa should be watched...

[Kath]

Though my Elf-Warrior theory is shot

Sorry could you explain that? What was the theory and why is it shot? I think I missed it.

[Kitanna]

I thought Oddwen was the wolf and Elf-Warrior was a wolf, simply because of how they voted on Day 1. But since I was wrong about Oddwen I fear I may be wrong about Elf-Warrior too.

[Kath]

I would say that Oddwen being innocent makes it more likely that Elf-Warrior is a wolf. It would be odd for two wolves to vote for the same person unless they were sure that pretty much the whole village was going to vote and not that many people did on Day 1. And, if you are a wolf as I am thinking at the moment then this sudden move away from suspecting someone seems a little suspicious to me.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Just noticed Oromin's post before mine; I'm not sure how seriously to treat it.

[Orominuialwen]

I am a wolf. I am in circumstances that may make it difficult for me to participate, and at some point completely impossible. Do yourselves all a favor and lynch me. You'll kill a wolf, and not have to deal with a severe lack of posts from me. Lhuna and wilwa are my fellow wolves. Since I (hopefully) will no longer be here, I no longer care what happens. Believe me if you will. We discussed this last NIGHT and decided that the best way for me to get out would be to confuse the heck out of everybody so that you will vote for me sooner or later. Like I said, believe what you like, but if you don't lynch me, sooner or later I will have to pull out of the game if at all possible. Do yourselves all a favor and lynch me now.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Kath

I would say that Oddwen being innocent makes it more likely that Elf-Warrior is a wolf. It would be odd for two wolves to vote for the same person unless they were sure that pretty much the whole village was going to vote and not that many people did on Day 1. And, if you are a wolf as I am thinking at the moment then this sudden move away from suspecting someone seems a little suspicious to me.

This is how I thought of it. Oddwen was a wolf, her and Elf-Warrior had the plan to vote for the same person in hopes of gaining another vote.

Oddwen was not a wolf, though. So I am not so sure about Elf-Warrior. In any case I was flip-flopping on Elf-Warrior yesterday. And though at the moment I am completely unsure about Elf-Warrior. I didn't say he wasn't a wolf and I didn't say he was.

[Encaitare]

I don't trust a word Oromin is saying. First she says she's the cobbler, then she says she's a wolf. No matter what she is, she's not giving away any valuable information -- even the people she claims to be her fellow wolves.

Originally Posted by Oromin

Lhuna and wilwa are my fellow wolves.

This is a lie on at least one account.

I suggest that the Seer should dream about Oromin tonight and find out what she's up to.

[Kath]

Oromin is very confusing that is something I am sure of. And I personally think that she is the Cobbler. I would urge people not to vote for her because I think she is trying to protect the wolves, one of which I sincerely believe to be Kitanna. Therefore of the two people she has mentioned - wilwa and Lhuna - I think only one is actually a wolf. My suspicions there rest on wilwa who was mentioned by both our Hunter and our Ranger. Kitanna's change of heart about Elf-Warrior is causing me some trouble with deciding whether he is a wolf or not so I would appreciate hearing some more from him today so I can use his posts to make decisions rather than vague 'flipflopping' from Kitanna.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kath

Oromin is very confusing that is something I am sure of. And I personally think that she is the Cobbler. I would urge people not to vote for her because I think she is trying to protect the wolves, one of which I sincerely believe to be Kitanna. Therefore of the two people she has mentioned - wilwa and Lhuna - I think only one is actually a wolf. My suspicions there rest on wilwa who was mentioned by both our Hunter and our Ranger. Kitanna's change of heart about Elf-Warrior is causing me some trouble with deciding whether he is a wolf or not so I would appreciate hearing some more from him today so I can use his posts to make decisions rather than vague 'flipflopping' from Kitanna.

Kath I think I actual agree with you. Kitanna is very suspicious now, though I don't think after yesterday I deserve anybody's trust. My trust in my deductive powers has been shaken rather severely. I feel probably very similar to Eomer right now. I guess that's the problem with being vocal. I knew that they were acting different and therefore my suspicion was on them.

I've been very busy so I was unable to compile my list of votes. Who did not vote. Is there somebody that could have saved Oddwen and didn't? I'm beginning to think that at least Kitanna and Elf-warrior are guilty. I'm less worried about Encai than I have been though not completely pacified.

PS my axe is getting a bit frustrated at its lack of use. This village seems all to bent on taking these lynchings into their own hands...oh well I guess I still get paid.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Though my Elf-Warrior theory is shot I still find lmp to be innocent. I also think morm is innocent. I'm not sure about anyone else. Though Wilwa should be watched...

If Kitanna is lynched as I think she may be today I would suggest looking at Wilwa very closely. A great wolfish tatic is to make sure to say you are suspicious of one another an yet never do much about it. And she's also trying to attach to at least one innocent here. I know I am innocent and actually believe LMP to be innocent as well. Elf-warrior is interesting too. I'm not sure Kitanna would have mentioned the other two wolves in one post but perhaps she did.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

It's time for my theory of the day but here are yesterday's votes in chronological order, to begin with (who voted for whom).

Elf-warrior -> Durelin
Lhuna -> -II-
mormegil -> -II-

Kitanna -> Oddwen
Eomer -> -II-
Durelin -> -II-
TGWBS -> -II-

Oddwen -> Kitanna

lmp -> Oddwen

Kath -> Durelin
Saurreg -> -II-

TORE -> Lhuna

wilwa -> Oddwen

spawn -> Kitanna

I think the wolves are wilwarin, Elf-warrior and especially Kitanna.
Reasons for my suspicions of Kitanna can be found in my post #169 and I won't repeat them here. Other things that make me think that she's a wolf are:

- She went pretty strongly against Oddwen. I believe that most of us think that Eomer's not guilty so that would have been a perfect way to associate oneself with an innocent.
- The "flip-flopping on Elf-warrior"

On day 1 wilwa said about accusing and lyncing people:

we should take our time with this decision

Yet twelve minutes later she said:

Morm is a little too eager for some blood shed don't you think?

After most of us disagreed with this, she starts the confusion talk. Is she playing a dull wolf? Anyway, I have found her behaviour rather weird.

On the first day wilwa, E-w and Kitanna voted rather late and all for a different person. Now you might ask who I am to blame because I have voted really late on both days but I'm not suspecting myself. There's the difference. It seems to me that their votes were a safety operation for distracting us. They watched who would get votes and then each of them voted for a different vote-gatherer. All three seem to be rather easily persuaded, too.

About Oromin... She's following Nilp's footsteps. I'm afraid that there are two options (yes, again). Either Oromin is the cobbler or she is a wolf. If she's a wolf she may have thought that we learned something from Nilp's case and we won't lynch her. If Oromin is the cobbler, she's doing her job and making us confused. I'm not going to vote for her today.

The Seer is hiding his/her personality pretty well. I don't have a faintest clue who it might be and that's good. I trust his/her own deliberative ability to decide when to step forth.

[littlemanpoet]

Sorry, I haven't read any of today's posts yet, except to scan the Night's kill and to my horror we lost two, not one.

The madness must stop. I have been no help, and was wrong to tell Durelin that we could not organize because of no known innocents. It may be difficult to organize with no known (alive) innocents, but not impossible. Better to struggle than the current mad chaos.

I have a plan. A proposal.

1. Let's take a vote to choose a leader from amonst ourselves. This leader must have such traits as:

• the confidence of a large number of villagers as likely innocent
• good at strategy
• clear communicator

2. The number of votes needed for such a leader to be agreed upon must be equal to the total number of current innocent villagers.

3. Choose a new leader each day. The previous day's leader may be chosen again, which makes sense if said leader did a good job.

4. If you agree with this proposal, show it by voting for a leader, using the following format, on its own line: LDR: {name}

It's possible that we might vote a cobbler or werewolf as our leader ... for a day. This is not necessarily a bad thing. It puts pressure on the werewolf to try and seem innocent while being very active, which is far more difficult than flying under the radar. If we inadvertently choose the cobbler as our leader, this is the one person who could sabotage the day's efforts. I see no clear way around that. Suffice it to say that it can be no worse than losing two gifted villagers in the space of a night and day.

The whole point of this is to try to take the initiative away from the werewolves. I'm not sure it will succeed, but it's better than the current chaos, I think. And whoever the leader is, I would request that we actually have a trial of law, and that we arrest both Kitanna and Elf Warrior and put both of them to trial today. The leader can serve as magistrate. If the current Moddessgoddess thinks I'm taking things way out of control for the kind of game this is, please say so. At least it's more civilized than the wild accusations and mass murder we're currently visiting upon each other.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

That's an interesting suggestion, lmp and it just might work. Unfortunately it's so late that I can't even think straight not to mention being in a valid state for choosing a leader character. Couldn't we have a trial without a magistrate? Maybe not. See you after I have had some sleep.

[Kath]

LMP since we have three clear suspects and you are going to be away for most of the next two days this trial idea seems a little superfluous and complicated. If we agree to lynch Kitanna today and everbody votes for her, her death will lead us to one of two options. If she is a wolf we lynch wilwa the next day, and if she is a wolf the next day we lynch Elf-Warrior. Now if my some amazing chance Kitanna is not a wolf I still say we follow this plan as most of the village seems to suspect the same people.

Now your trial idea LMP is basically this in a far more complicated form. As the votes mount up for each person they will in effect give their defence to try and prevent people from voting for them. It should also be slightly less difficult to carry out.

Also, we can totally mess up any plans the wolves may have to change the votes because if we agree to this plan today and then someone does not vote for Kitanna we can deduce that they are a wolf. The only person who could affect this is the Cobbler. If Oromin has that role then we are safe as she has already voted for herself, if it is someone else we follow the lynch pattern of Kitanna then wilwa then Elf-Warrior and if one of these turns out to be innocent we can try Oromin next.

I would like people to say whether they agree with this plan well before the end of voting nears so that we know whether it will work and who is involved. Even if you have only one chance to put your vote in then just say whether you will follow this lynch list so everyone knows for future days.

Just to make it clear as this post is a little confused the list is:
TODAY: Kitanna
TOMORROW: wilwa
NEXT DAY: Elf-Warrior

I know I've mentioned this already but please, if you agree with this plan and WILL follow this list then SAY SO in your post. If we don't get enough people agreeing this will not work.

My vote will be for Kitanna but I want to see who agrees with this before I vote.

[Kitanna]

This will probably be the death of me.
I may just die today, but if I can convince you think about Oro.

Oro is my Quenya partner and sent me an e-mail saying we could not continue our lessons for awhile because she has some serious RL problems. So, at any time she could have to drop out of the game.

I'm ignoring Oro's claims to being the wolf and the cobbler for the most part. But her behavior today was very unlike her. I doubt she would act like that unless she seriously needed out of the game.

Oro's absence in voting will only hurt the game in the end. So I suggest following her own lead and vote for her. Tomorrow you can lynch whoever.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This will probably be the death of me.
I may just die today, but if I can convince you think about Oro.

Oro is my Quenya partner and sent me an e-mail saying we could not continue our lessons for awhile because she has some serious RL problems. So, at any time she could have to drop out of the game.

I'm ignoring Oro's claims to being the wolf and the cobbler for the most part. But her behavior today was very unlike her. I doubt she would act like that unless she seriously needed out of the game.

Oro's absence in voting will only hurt the game in the end. So I suggest following her own lead and vote for her. Tomorrow you can lynch whoever.

No we'd rather leave an innocent alive that cannot post than waste one more day killing an innocent when we feel as confident as we have about one's guilt...oh ya that's you my little wolf. I think I will sharpen my axe, though I don't know why it seems I'll never get to use it.

[mormegil]

LMP I am a bit confused at what role this leader would perform. If I were to give my vote of those who I must trust it would be in this order.

1. TORE
2. Eomer
3. LMP
4. Saurreg--though strangely silent
5. Spawn
6. Kath

Of course I trust me the most but I don't think I can vote for myself. But being that TORE has stated he had to make a brief trip and won't be around much I would say Eomer if I had to but won't yet because I don't understand their value and what they will actually do.

If I had to pick my most suspicious list I would say

1. Kitanna
2. Elf-Warrior
3. Wilwarin
4. Oromin
5. Encai
6. Lhuna

Watch knowing my luck my lists should be backwards

Firefoot: On your last post you still have Oddwen on the living list.

[Kath]

Kitanna I'm sorry but I disagree. Having three werewolves rather than two will be more detrimental than having one person who cannot get on to vote. A complete absence will be less of a problem.

Morm you're here, do you agree with the lynch-list?