Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha! - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Mithalwen · 08-13-2005, 01:39 PM

Hmm well if LMP is the cobbler .... well how could he know what would help the wolves with only a few posts on the board? The cobbler isn't privy to any special information is he? He can only make his deductions like the rest of us. It occurs though that his behaviour might be good cover for a Seer. Make it look like a random accusation so you don't have to declare yourself and hope that people join the bandwagon? Just a theory.... I mean the seer is very vulnerable while the Bear live since the Ranger can't protect from the Beorning. I know that it would be flukey that the Seer would strike lucky straight off AND that the person would be foolish enough to behave so conveniently suspiciously (albeit partly IC) but flukes do happen...... The Seer has just over a 50% chance of having identified a significant villager .... and with only 4 (?) villagers left to speak at all, I haven't seen a better indication.

Hey I'm clutching at straws here. I have about 15 minutes to decide.....

Mithalwen · 08-13-2005, 01:41 PM

2nd post due to cross post with Gurthang... I cannot wait.... for all .. I have to go with what we have which isn't a lot....

CaptainofDespair · 08-13-2005, 01:54 PM

Hmm...suspicious.

Gurthang has caused me to raise an eyebrow. I shall ponder him and his thoughts. I doubt he should be worried about at the moment, however. He may be annoying, and an animal rights activist, but he does not appear too guilty, at least not yet. Time will tell.

Though, Durelin has given me a cause for worry, as she has eaten one of my shrews. We will see what part she has to play, if any.

I'd rather not randomly lynch someone, but Gurthang is the only one truly 'on my radar'.

Mithalwen · 08-13-2005, 02:05 PM

I have got to decide now and it isn't easy. I am afraid that I had always thought that if I had to make a random decision I would go for the person who posted first on the principle of "If you can't be fair, be arbitrary" . While I can see the sense in that his behaviour is too obvious, it is also possible that it is a double bluff. It is also possible that LMP is the Seer ( reason for the last minute sub?).
Many others also suspect him so, not having the luxury to wait and fearing personal consequences of not voting...

++ Gurthang

Gurthang · 08-13-2005, 02:33 PM

Mithalwen, that doesn't seem very fair to me, voting for me just because I posted first. I must also say that if you think LMP is the Seer, you really shouldn't point him out like that. If he is, and the wolves believe you, you just showed him to them.

This may sound like it's out of spite, but I am now suspicious of Mithalwen. She is voting for me on very unsteady grounds(cuz I was first to post). She's also posted twice as many times as anyone else, yet really hasn't said to much. Mostly just her musing to herself about the various roles in our village. Hmmm.

Still, I want to wait until others say what they think. It sounds like we won't hear from Mith again today; I'm not sure I'll vote for someone who hasn't had a chance to defend themselves.

Meneltarmacil · 08-13-2005, 03:05 PM

It may be that Mithalwen is a beaste or ye Cobbler, but at this pointe I don't see enough evidence to be certaine of thy suggestion, Gurthang. However, LMP might be in neede of some protection from nowe on. Or is he a Wolfe or Beare trying to look like ye Seere to avoide yon gallows? 'Tis a toughe situation.

SamwiseGamgee · 08-13-2005, 05:06 PM

Well, well, well, my friends. We are all becoming rather hysterical, aren't we? Can't you see that this is exactly what those foul beasts of destruction want, you fools! We must remain calm, as the man of many saucepans has said.

However, one must remain on one's toes. And so, to Mormegil I turn. Baseless accusations and rantings? This time, child, I shall put those down to rather too long spent in the presence of dangerous fumes, but let it be known: I'm keeping my eyes on you, laddy!

Gurthang, it appears you have explained yourself well, doesn't it. Were it not for a certain development I would be very close to casting my vote for you. But no. I think you are simply a misguided individual, not evil. So, this incident- what is it?

Mithalwen, you call for the death of Gurthang. Why? Your explanations do not wash with me, frankly, and I find your behaviour most suspicious. Are you not, in fact, simply voting for he with most fingers pointed in his direction in order to start a reaction? Yes, you'd like that, wouldn't you? Most suspicious, most suspicious indeed.

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 08-17-2005, 09:09 AM

I'm speechless. Well, that might not be an entirely bad thing but really, I cannot make a proper case against anyone right now. Well, I could blame Durelin for a couple of reasons. She voted for Firefoot and now she's dead. She also tried to draw attention from Gurthang, Mithalwen & lmp but on the other hand, that's what I did on Day1, too.

As Saucy pointed out, Lalaith's suspicions towards Boromir & Gurthang are odd. She also kept asking if the Seer can reveal the Bear and her post #124 was somewhat weird. But I think she's rather the bear than a wolf.

Mithwolfwen said very early on the first day that "trying to guess the degree of bluff is just mindspinning. It may be an error to dig too deeply and ignore the obvious. Personally if push came to shove, I would vote in better conscience for someone who had acted suspiciously than someone who hadn't - in the absence of something more definite." Is this supposed to be a clue or was she just talking to make her post look longer?

Why do wolves want to kill somebody? 1) to frame someone up, 2) they think they've found the Seer, 3) they're bluffing

So, Morm and Firefoot were killed by wolves but even though I'm considering all the options above, I can't pinpoint any culprits. I'll post more later if I can sort out my thought.

Firefoot · 08-13-2005, 03:14 PM

I agree; Mithalwen's vote of Gurthang seems suspicious to me. While I can see why people might be suspicious of him, I think that he was just playing up his animal rights activist role. Mithalwen's vote doesn't seem like much other than a band-waggoning vote, and voting just because someone posted first doesn't seem fair. In fact, it seems less likely to me that a wolf would post first, not more. Now, I am not by any means saying that Gurthang is innocent; I just think that we need to look at our reasons for voting for people a little more closely.

Quote:

Now that really is a random accusation ..... !!!! I have warned you about eating strong cheese late at night...... How can I defend myself against that? All I can say is that you have been saying the day when you produce gold will be dawning for years ...and it aint getting any lighter is it? Anyone with any sense knows you have to mine for gold... even dwarves know that ..... but no you think you can turn base metal into it without the effort of actually doing some hard work.

Also I might say it is a nice wolf trick to try and point the finger at someone who has announced she has to go imminently and cannot remain to defend herself. Trying to find an easy target to save yourself are you?

Does this defense of Mithalwen's sound a little over-hysterical to anyone else?

Quote:

I'd say it's our primary goal to lynch the bear. As long as there are wolves and a bear around, we lose two good villagers a night (unless they attack each other).

This makes some sense to me. The problem is that the bear will probably have an easier time hiding since s/he, like most others, only know the role of his/herself and will honestly be looking to lynch the wolves. There will be no evidence of teamwork, etc.

Lalaith · 08-13-2005, 03:39 PM

Sooth, sooth, forsooth.
I've been reading and mulling over what all my fellow villagers have said and it tells me very little.
But my foresight tells me much - that this is just the beginning. And while we are still many, and most of us are innocents, we are alas unlikely to stumble upon the guilty so soon.
As for our chief suspect of the moment, I do not think it very were-ish behaviour to call attention to oneself so quickly, as Gurthang did. He may be a clever double-bluffing wolf but it would be a big gamble to take so early on.
The hasty voters have also laid themselves open to suspicion but this does not mean necessarily that they ARE suspicious.
I myself will wait a while to cast my vote.

08-13-2005, 01:41 PM	#2
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	2nd post due to cross post with Gurthang... I cannot wait.... for all .. I have to go with what we have which isn't a lot.... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

08-13-2005, 02:05 PM	#4
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	I have got to decide now and it isn't easy. I am afraid that I had always thought that if I had to make a random decision I would go for the person who posted first on the principle of "If you can't be fair, be arbitrary" . While I can see the sense in that his behaviour is too obvious, it is also possible that it is a double bluff. It is also possible that LMP is the Seer ( reason for the last minute sub?). Many others also suspect him so, not having the luxury to wait and fearing personal consequences of not voting... ++ Gurthang __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

08-13-2005, 02:33 PM	#5
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Mithalwen, that doesn't seem very fair to me, voting for me just because I posted first. I must also say that if you think LMP is the Seer, you really shouldn't point him out like that. If he is, and the wolves believe you, you just showed him to them. This may sound like it's out of spite, but I am now suspicious of Mithalwen. She is voting for me on very unsteady grounds(cuz I was first to post). She's also posted twice as many times as anyone else, yet really hasn't said to much. Mostly just her musing to herself about the various roles in our village. Hmmm. Still, I want to wait until others say what they think. It sounds like we won't hear from Mith again today; I'm not sure I'll vote for someone who hasn't had a chance to defend themselves. __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.

08-13-2005, 03:05 PM	#6
Meneltarmacil Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: The bottom of the ocean, discussing philosophy with a giant squid Posts: 2,254	It may be that Mithalwen is a beaste or ye Cobbler, but at this pointe I don't see enough evidence to be certaine of thy suggestion, Gurthang. However, LMP might be in neede of some protection from nowe on. Or is he a Wolfe or Beare trying to look like ye Seere to avoide yon gallows? 'Tis a toughe situation. __________________ I ♣ baby seals.

08-13-2005, 05:06 PM	#7
SamwiseGamgee Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: In the warm bosom of a Warg Posts: 378	Well, well, well, my friends. We are all becoming rather hysterical, aren't we? Can't you see that this is exactly what those foul beasts of destruction want, you fools! We must remain calm, as the man of many saucepans has said. However, one must remain on one's toes. And so, to Mormegil I turn. Baseless accusations and rantings? This time, child, I shall put those down to rather too long spent in the presence of dangerous fumes, but let it be known: I'm keeping my eyes on you, laddy! Gurthang, it appears you have explained yourself well, doesn't it. Were it not for a certain development I would be very close to casting my vote for you. But no. I think you are simply a misguided individual, not evil. So, this incident- what is it? Mithalwen, you call for the death of Gurthang. Why? Your explanations do not wash with me, frankly, and I find your behaviour most suspicious. Are you not, in fact, simply voting for he with most fingers pointed in his direction in order to start a reaction? Yes, you'd like that, wouldn't you? Most suspicious, most suspicious indeed. __________________ -- Well, I'm back.

08-13-2005, 01:39 PM	#1
Mithalwen Pilgrim Soul Join Date: May 2004 Location: watching the wonga-wonga birds circle... Posts: 9,461	Hmm well if LMP is the cobbler .... well how could he know what would help the wolves with only a few posts on the board? The cobbler isn't privy to any special information is he? He can only make his deductions like the rest of us. It occurs though that his behaviour might be good cover for a Seer. Make it look like a random accusation so you don't have to declare yourself and hope that people join the bandwagon? Just a theory.... I mean the seer is very vulnerable while the Bear live since the Ranger can't protect from the Beorning. I know that it would be flukey that the Seer would strike lucky straight off AND that the person would be foolish enough to behave so conveniently suspiciously (albeit partly IC) but flukes do happen...... The Seer has just over a 50% chance of having identified a significant villager .... and with only 4 (?) villagers left to speak at all, I haven't seen a better indication. Hey I'm clutching at straws here. I have about 15 minutes to decide..... __________________ “But Finrod walks with Finarfin his father beneath the trees in Eldamar.” Christopher Tolkien, Requiescat in pace

08-13-2005, 01:54 PM	#3
CaptainofDespair Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 413	Hmm...suspicious. Gurthang has caused me to raise an eyebrow. I shall ponder him and his thoughts. I doubt he should be worried about at the moment, however. He may be annoying, and an animal rights activist, but he does not appear too guilty, at least not yet. Time will tell. Though, Durelin has given me a cause for worry, as she has eaten one of my shrews. We will see what part she has to play, if any. I'd rather not randomly lynch someone, but Gurthang is the only one truly 'on my radar'.

08-17-2005, 09:09 AM	#8
dancing spawn of ungoliant Mischievous Candle Join Date: Jun 2003 Location: So near to Russia, so far from Japan, quite a long way from Cairo, lots of miles from Vietnam. Posts: 1,234	I'm speechless. Well, that might not be an entirely bad thing but really, I cannot make a proper case against anyone right now. Well, I could blame Durelin for a couple of reasons. She voted for Firefoot and now she's dead. She also tried to draw attention from Gurthang, Mithalwen & lmp but on the other hand, that's what I did on Day1, too. As Saucy pointed out, Lalaith's suspicions towards Boromir & Gurthang are odd. She also kept asking if the Seer can reveal the Bear and her post #124 was somewhat weird. But I think she's rather the bear than a wolf. Mithwolfwen said very early on the first day that "trying to guess the degree of bluff is just mindspinning. It may be an error to dig too deeply and ignore the obvious. Personally if push came to shove, I would vote in better conscience for someone who had acted suspiciously than someone who hadn't - in the absence of something more definite." Is this supposed to be a clue or was she just talking to make her post look longer? Why do wolves want to kill somebody? 1) to frame someone up, 2) they think they've found the Seer, 3) they're bluffing So, Morm and Firefoot were killed by wolves but even though I'm considering all the options above, I can't pinpoint any culprits. I'll post more later if I can sort out my thought. __________________ Fenris Wolf

08-13-2005, 03:39 PM	#10
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Sooth, sooth, forsooth. I've been reading and mulling over what all my fellow villagers have said and it tells me very little. But my foresight tells me much - that this is just the beginning. And while we are still many, and most of us are innocents, we are alas unlikely to stumble upon the guilty so soon. As for our chief suspect of the moment, I do not think it very were-ish behaviour to call attention to oneself so quickly, as Gurthang did. He may be a clever double-bluffing wolf but it would be a big gamble to take so early on. The hasty voters have also laid themselves open to suspicion but this does not mean necessarily that they ARE suspicious. I myself will wait a while to cast my vote. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling