Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Boromir88]

Well, this is going to be my last shot of internet access before the day ends, so here comes my thoughts along with a final vote...

Gurthang, was my original biggest suspicion, at one time I felt pretty sure I was going to vote for him. But recently I think he's explained his stance well (atleast for now), and I don't find a good enough reason to vote for Gurthang.

Mithalwen has been the person that seems to be growing in more fame around here, or atleast one of the center of talks as to who is getting it. I just find it difficult to jump on the wagon and vote for someone that is not here to defend themselves and defend their position, no matter how strange their "voting techniques" are. But then again, the lady Oddwen was unable to defend herself. Since we are dealing with some monstrous animals, I'm afraid fairness isn't something that we should focus on so early on. Clearly it seems as even Mithalwen will agree with that

..."If you can't be fair, be arbitrary"

There are a few others that have attracted suspicion as well and I don't think it wise to just solely look at Mithalwen and Gurthang (who seem to be the two main talks). I mean mormegil comes out with his random list of the three wolves, which is odd in my eyes, but I wonder if this is just from an odd alchemist or some wolfish trick? And lmp is unable to be here quickly voting, casting his decision, barely before talks started. Now, could this be he just doesn't have the time to be here, or was he quickly trying to start a bandwagon recognizing some people were suspicious of Gurthang?

So, with all that, as difficult as I find to do this, being fair isn't something that I'm concerned with right now. Lives are at stake, and if that means finding the wolves (and bear) who did this, then being "fair" just sometimes doesn't work. I atleast don't think it works early on, it's pretty much a flip, and odds are stacked against us, but action must be taken...

++Mithalwen

[Alcarillo]

Somebody must go to their death this dreary day, so I am voting for

++Mithalwen

She certainly has attracted a lot of suspicion. Gurthang has lost most of his suspicious-ness in my eyes. He certainly has explained himself, too. His actions don't look very wolfy/beary, either. LMP has only posted once and confused us all with his quick vote. Who knows what he is? Seer, cobbler, whatever. I'm just too puzzled by him. I will keep my eyes on him, though. Mithalwen is the oddest of these three.

As for Mormegil's sudden predictions, they certainly make him a target. At the moment he doesn't worry me too much.

[Nonnacedak]

I must retire to my shack therefore I must make a decision. Mithalwen seems to me to be the most likely person to get lynched at the moment. I daresay we all have very little evidence to go off but hey there are rules to life we must follow so let the lynching's begin!

++Mithalwen

Anyone who has voted at this point can very easily be wrong or right with so many culprits and so little evidence. Well Im off to dream about the trout!

[mormegil]

This bandwagon against Mithalwen is moving too fast! If she is innocent, I do not know, we innocents are giving far too much cover for the wolves. People are simply voting for her and saying that their reason is, in essence, because everybody else is doing it she is might suspicious. Admittedly her behavior was a bit odd but to me on this first day that is less telling than somebody's who is ready to vote for somebody based on popular opinion.

So far Mithalwen has gathered 6 votes
CaptainofDespair
Samwisegamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo
Nonnacedak

have voted for her in that order. I would feel fairly confident in saying that if Mith is innocent we have at least one wolf in that pack (pun intended) and if I were to narrow it even further I would choose the following 4 at my top suspects from that small list

Samwisegamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo

and I will add further to my notorious lists and say

Meneltarmacil
Alcarillo

are the most suspect in my opinion.

They have been moderately vocal but haven't said too much. They avoid any risk at all and vote on the easy train where they hope to hide in the large numbers. their votes are critical ones 3 and 5. The 3rd puts Mith in the front and the 5th makes it an uphill battle for Mith to survive.

This vote is possibly a bit random but I feel most strongly (though I do have some doubt of course on this day) that

++Meneltarmacil

is the most likely wolf among my list.

[mormegil]

Sorry for the double....

I would strongly suggest that any true innocent think a bit more before they jump on a bandwagon. This is a very dangerous thing to do on DAY 1. We don't want to give too much cover to these wolves.

Oh and Gurthang is innocent

[Laitaine]

Friends, the day is growing short and votes have flown around
Yet I’ve not seen a single person to be guilty-found.
True, Mithalwen’s accusations are somewhat strange to see,
But she had little time to post and must speak her mind quickly
I myself have little time to post in this debate,
Therefore I understand quite well her cursed time constraint.
Gurthang has already eyebrows raised ‘cuz of his job,
Yet there is little proof to say he leads the werewolf mob.
No doubt we jumped on him because he’s easy to accuse,
I do not want to lynch him just because of his rare views.

At first for me, it was LMP who had earned my suspicion
It seemed his quick vote for Gurthang could be a secret mission.
He voted fast and disappeared, and little proof was said
That Gurthang was the one that our fair village should make dead.
But I recall he couldn’t stay--he had just one chance to vote.
Therefore I waver in my choice and everything I’ve wrote.

It seems to me the likely wolf among us would be smart
(S)he is probably one we’ve been ignoring from the start.
It is the character of wolves to stay out of limelight
Therefore, our choices of Gurthang or Mith hardly seem right.
Since it’s Day One and therefore unclear what we know,
I take a guess at those who look LEAST LIKELY to be foes.
Who here has been somewhat accusing but stays out of blame?
I chance it is the rogue who took Alcarillo for his name.

*wails with grief, burying face in recorder*

If only peace reigned in this town, instead of twisted fear
And we must all vote for someone, even though it seems unclear…


++ALCARILLO

[Gurthang]

I've been looking over everything that has been said, and I must say I can't make much sense of it. A lot of it seems to be bandwagoning here and there, some around me and some around Mithalwen. I'll agree that she is acting supsicious, yet I am disinclined to vote for her because she claimed a lack of time to post. I'll be keeping her under my eye, though.

Other than that, Durelin's posts have been somewhat confusing and her choice of vote for Firefoot was a bit startling. Mormegil keeps bringing out his lists, and then Boromir, Alcarillo, and Nonnacedak all jumped on the Mith wagon. There seems to be so little to go on, and yet too much at that.

That said, a vote must be made. I will go with:

++Durelin

She makes me the most uneasy and confused, and her vote for Firefoot was based on the fact that Firefoot wasn't suspicious. That seems rather odd to me. It may be true that the wolves are hiding well and looking innocent, but that doesn't mean we should attack those who look innocent just on that hunch.

[Nonnacedak]

I was looking through Liataine's posts and I found this suspicious. Its from day 1

Originally Posted by Laitaine

Friends, the day is growing short and votes have flown around
Yet I’ve not seen a single person to be guilty-found.
True, Mithalwen’s accusations are somewhat strange to see,
But she had little time to post and must speak her mind quickly

She accuses then defends Mith in this statement. That is definatly something a wolf would do.

She also voted for Alcarillo in that same post who died I believe that first night. I have named my other suspicions of her in my past posts.

Im pretty much for sure voting for her but I will wait out and see what she says in her defense.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

I believe I have put Laitaine at the top of my suspect list. Im sure you just missed my measly little post but I just wanted to reaffirm that I believe Laitaine to be the last wolf.

I'm sorry for doing you a disservice, Nonnacedak. I was in a hurry when I posted before. I had noted your suspicion of Laitaine. I just neglected to include mention of you in my haste.

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I didn't mention her because the statement was meant to include those I have suspected before, and I have not suspected her. I don't recall anything that I've seen her do that has made me suspicious.

Then please look back at her posts and, in particular, when and how she has voted.

Originally Posted by Nonnacedak

She accuses then defends Mith in this statement. That is definatly something a wolf would do.

Indeed. It is one of the reasons that I suspect her strongly. Take a look at these snippets too:

Originally Posted by Laitaine

It seems that there’s precious little proof to go on for today,
The only strangeness I observe is Gil’s vague-speaking way.
Of course, I too thought Alcarillo’s quietness was strange
But I was wrong on that account, so can Gil be deranged?

Originally Posted by Laitaine

So far, the only people I've seen act suspiciously:
Gil-galad and Non, both too quiet and very vague too me.

Gil has written such a lack, it's really hard to know
And Non has seemed to bent on telling us that he's no foe.
Out of the two, Gil just seems a rather bumbling fool

(no offense)

Notice the similarity? On each occasion, she makes mention of a Wolf's suspicious behaviour but then seeks to dismiss it.

[SamwiseGamgee]

Some interesting discussion being had there, fellows of Hamlet. Whilst being most amused indeed by lmp's crazy rant, I couldn't help but keep my suspicions up.

Originally posted by The Saucepan Man
True, although it is more likely, in my view, that the Wolves will have behaved in different ways to avoid becoming conspicuous through similar patterns of behaviour.

But SpM, I can't help but think that maybe now lmp is trying a ridiculous double bluff. Now, having said that, I don't think him the wolf, but nonetheless I wonder if there's potential for him trying some elaborate scheme to escape wrath by being a bear, copying a wolf but us all thinking that no one would be so stupid! I don't know. Anyway, I won't be voting for lmp today, my concentration lies on the wolf. I've pretty much decided how I'll vote, but shall refrain for consideration.

Oh, and as a quick p.s. while I remember:

Originally posted by none other than myself
I'm becoming more and more sure that Gil is calling our bluff. I suspected him yesterday and having read his posts today, and especially #237, I'm pretty convinced that he's up to something. But what? is it cobbler, bear or audacious werewolf? Who knows. Also, Enca voted for him yesterday. Now, sure, I hear you groan that that's just too predictable and nobody'd be so stupid- but i just can't help wonder if it's one of those dangerous dances on the knife-edge of stupidity and brilliance.

That'll be on the side of stupidity, then. We did well, guys.

[Alcarillo]

Originally Posted by mormegil

and I will add further to my notorious lists and say

Meneltarmacil
Alcarillo

are the most suspect in my opinion.

They have been moderately vocal but haven't said too much. They avoid any risk at all and vote on the easy train where they hope to hide in the large numbers. their votes are critical ones 3 and 5. The 3rd puts Mith in the front and the 5th makes it an uphill battle for Mith to survive.

You accuse me of being only moderately vocal, but that is simply because I can barely make a definite decision (and who can? It's only day one). I find the evidence against all a bit shaky. I voted for Mithalwen because no others seemed suspicious enough to me. This is only the first day, so we're bound to make a few mistakes as we make shots-in-the-dark before we get real ideas about who is who. And you accuse me of hiding in large numbers, but nobody wants to stick out like a sore thumb, plain for blood-thirsty werewolves and paranoid villagers to see and mistake as a threat. I just don't want to seem like a gifted or a bandwagon-starter (it seems that I might've joined one though!), prime suspects.

I wouldn't put too much concern on vocality. Some people are just more/less vocal than others, those in the middle.

P.S. I'll short change you the next time you buy a drink!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Boromir

mormegil comes out with his random list of the three wolves, which is odd in my eyes

Morm's accusations cause reactions and reactions are our only clues thus far. I don't say that he's quilty nor that he's innocent. All I know is that his behaviour is reasonable.

Mith said: "It is also possible that LMP is the Seer." I find this odd for two reasons. 1) Why would she want to associate Lmp with the Seer? If she really thinks he is the Seer she should keep it hush-hush. But I think all this is even weirder because 2) I think Lmp is just obviously not the Seer.

Also, as Firefoot pointed out, Mith's self-defense did seem a tad over-hysterical. But would a wolf be so clumsy? We should not underestimate them!

I think Alcarillo's suspect list is odd.

1. Mith, 2. Lmp, 3. Gurthang

It seems that many of our villagers think along those same lines. But don't you see, the wolves are probably just hiding on the background waiting for the bandwagoning to begin - it's even possible that since the villagers are doing so fine with throwing their votes for certain "suspicious" people by themselves, the wolves don't have to bandwagon and they can appear as innocents.

Alcarillo's suspects have one thing in common: they have somehow drawn attention to themselves by acting differently than the majority. I think a wolf wouldn't do so on the first day. Not even as a double bluff.

[The Saucepan Man]

Apologies to one and all for my extended absence this day. Alcarillo's beer must be stronger than I thought.

Well, much has happened since I spoke last, and I have been musing over all that has been said and done.

The most significant development is that, following initial suspicion against Gurthang and lmp, a significant backlash has developed against Mithalwen.

I must admit that, as I mused upon what has been said, I too felt Mithalwen to be suspicious, even before I saw the bandwaggon against her begin to develop. The fact that it has makes me question my initial conclusion. However, my reasons for suspecting her remain firm. She defended her need to vote early rather too forcefully in my view (in post #26). She also reacted very defensively against mormegil's random accusation (a tactic to elicit reaction, in my view) - compare her reaction (post #30) to that of Firefoot (post #32). And arcticstorm didn't even bother to respond to it. And her vote for Gurthang might be taken as an effort to nurture and develop the (then) bandwaggon against him, which was based on nothing but the fact that he posted first and 'in character'.

So, while I am loathe to join a bandwaggon, I am still minded to vote for Mithalwen. Even if she is innocent, her death may prove to us to be helpful for I believe that mormegil (in post #62) talks sense and that at least one Wolf will (if she is innocent) have voted for her at a decisive stage in the bandwaggoning. His list of those who would be most suspicious in those circumstances makes sense to me too, ie:

Samwisegamgee
Meneltarmacil
Boromir
Alcarillo

Although I would (reluctantly) have to include Firefoot on the list as she was the second to vote for Mithalwen (and quite early too). At least one other Wolf will (if Mithalwen is innocent) probably be amongst those who have voted quite deliberately to avoid the bandwaggon, so as to distance themselves from it.

If Mithalwen is guilty, then we should look carefully at Gil-Galad, who seems to have tried to swing the voting away from Mithalwen and back towards Gurthang, with little more reason than there was to vote for him at the beginning of the Day (post #57).

I also think that we should bear in mind those who have contributed, but said little to aid the Village in our cause (and who might thereby be hoping to 'fly under the radar'). In my view, this list comprises:

CaptainofDespair
Encaitare
Gil-Galad
Laitaine
Lalaith
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
wilwarin538

Of those who have spoken more frequently, I am least suspicious of mormegil, Firefoot (hence my reluctance above) and dancing spawn, largely because their thoughts seem to be along the same lines as mine. That, of course, doesn't make them innocent. But I am less inclined to view them suspiciously at this stage.

The time approaches to vote, and I am probably going to cast mine for Mithalwen for the reasons stated above. But I am conscious of the fact that every vote now for her brings her closer to the point where her death will be certain. I have time, and so will hold off for the time being in case anything further of significance is said.

[Lalaith]

Sooth, sooth....while I slept much has happened. Sundays always were strange days.
In our little Hamlet, some of us speak out more than others. This is not an indication of guilt. Also, those that speak more are useful to our initial investigations, be these speakers guilty or innocent. Why, you ask? An innocent speaker is active and will bring forth reaction from others. And if they are eventually found to be guilty, and have said much, we can examine their thoughts retrospectively, while a taciturn wolf leaves a most unrewarding body of evidence behind him.
Nor is quietness an indication of guilt. Even in these dreadful times there may be duties a villager must carry out which keeps them away from this place where are opinions are heard, particularly at what my foresight tells me our descendants will call "a weekend."

Mithalwen and Gurthang are speakers, and for the reasons stated above I would be reluctant to lose them so soon.
Is it too late to save one or the other? Perhaps. But of those who have put forth their reasoning here, I am inclined to agree with Mormegil and dancing spawn. But who to vote for? I am inclined to abstain as I do not like to send what would, under the laws of probability, almost certainly be an innocent to his/her death but this death will happen whether I will it or no and to sit out is the act of a coward.
To cast a vote at this stage for someone who has not yet garnered any votes at all, is also a way of avoiding responsibility, I fear. At the moment, looking after what has been said and done, I suppose it is Captain of Despair who I am most suspicious of, but there is little point casting a vote for him.
So making my choice from those who have already received votes I will cast my vote for
++Meneltarmacil

PS Mr Saucie, I would absolve Laitaine from your Miner's List of the Silent. Composing all one's replies in verse takes time, I suspect!