Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Laitaine]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

If CaptainOfDespair is not the cobbler, than he is playing the role to a 'T'. He's really confusing me by hinting he's a gifted yet seeming to care little if we lynch him. I can't for the life of me understand why a normal, or even a gifted, villager would do that.

Point well put, my dear Gurthang, I had not thought of this.
I’d forgotten that the Cobbler would go far to steal death’s kiss.
Which brings us to the question: whose life is he trying to save?
Perhaps he realized that a wolf’s in danger of his grave.
Perhaps we should look at his posts with very careful eyes
Something clearly triggered this quick race to his demise.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I just don't think the bear would be so bold as the Captain has been. This kind of boldness comes only from one who is sure of their innocence, and most likely is confused as to who is who, and who to trust.

That may be the case, my friend, but that seems to bold a ruse
A man talks like this also when he has nothing to lose.

*sighs at the thought*

Originally Posted by Durelin

What I find interesting about Saucepan Man, is that he fits his own description of the bear extraordinarily well. As far as I can tell, he has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence. This could mean that he doesn't care who lives or dies. Also, he is avidly pinning the role of the bear on CaptainofDespair, and, as he said, the bear is wont to do so. Also, you have "thrown out a fair few accusations, while trying not to act overtly suspicious yourself," just as you said the bear should act.

Another clever point, my friend, of which I am aware
It seems to me that CoD is Cobbler, not the bear.
When Captain took up quickly his most suicidal stance,
I would have thought it obvious the motive for his rants.
Saucie could have seen this as a chance to pin his blame
And aimed it at the earliest suspicious-looking name.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

A fair observation. But, if I was the Bear, do you really think that I would outline what I believe to be the Bear's likely pattern of behaviour and then go and act in precisely that way myself? That would be a bold bluff indeed.

*purses lips*

However, Durelin, our Saucie counters very well.
If your claims were true, then it’s far too simple to tell.
I think a Bear (or wolf!) would hide his plans with much more skill
For now, I think that we should keep Saucepan Man with us still.

*yet another sigh*

I think perhaps, dear Durelin, you aren't in the clear.
YOU were the one who stomped the bar or ripped of both Morm's ears!
Whether you are bear or wolf, I do not care to know.
Your aim to take out Saucepan Man makes you the likely foe.
So far, Samwise Gamgee said, he's given much insight
A wolf or bear would want him killed, whether it's day or night.

*sniffles*

'Tis sad there's such suspicion among our once-friendly town,
Yet 'tis the only way we'll live while these wolves are around.
Out of all the people here, Durelin acts with most guilt
Villagers, I’ll wake next morn to see whose breath we’ve stilt.

++DURELIN

[wilwarin538]

Since I don't beleive Saucepan Man to be guilty and I'm not convinced enough to vote for CoD I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Since he's one of the only ones I am actually suspicious of.

[Encaitare]

I have already stated my reasoning in my last post, so here's the vote.

++GIL-GALAD

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by Me
So, my suspect list(since everyone seems to love lists so much ) goes as follows:

1. Nonnacedak
2. Durelin
3. Gil-Galad
4. CaptainOfDespair

Since I made that list, Nonnacedak has somewhat satisfied me; enough so that I will not be voting for him TODAY. Durelin has explained herself close to satisfaction, except for one point, so I do not think I will vote for her again, TODAY at least. Her vote for Saucepan is somewhat frustrating me, because I do not consider him to be suspicious at all. It really doesn't make sense that he woudl talk about the Bear so much and be talking about himself. I think he is innocent.

So it comes down to Gil-Galad and CaptainOfDespair. Gil voted for me yesterday at a crucial time, and many have said they consider it a wolfish trick. On the other hand, Captain has been acting rather cobblerish to me. I'm still going to wait, which means I will be voting very late (within a half an hour of the end of the DAY), but I think it will be for one of those two.

Votes received so far(no order):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIII
Gil-Galad - III
Durelin - I

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by CoD

You might need me to die for you

Wolves might need a Cobbler to die for them...

Originally Posted by Durelin

As far as I can tell, he [SpM] has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence.

I think it's suspicious behaviour to defend your fellow villager. The wolves and bear might want to bind themselves to an innocent or the wolves might defend each other. No ordinary villager can have certain information who's guilty and who's innocent.

You have been quite talkative while I was taking a nap. Now that I have read through what you have said I think that the suspicion towards Gil, CoD, Lalaith & Durelin seems reasonable. I think either Gil or Cod is the Cobbler but I don't know what to think of Lalath and Durelin. I won't vote for them today, at least not before they say something that puts the last nail in their coffin.

[The Saucepan Man]

I see that there have been sugestions that CaptainofDespair may be the Cobbler. But I am not sure that I follow the reasoning in this regard.

As far as I can see, the only Cobbler-like behaviour that he has displayed resulted from my suggestion that he may be the Black Beorning. That was at a time when no votes had been cast and various names had been thrown around as possible Wolves. It seems to me that there was far too little uncertainty at that stage to provoke a Cobbler into acting suspiciously in the hope of offering him/her-self up in place of a Wolf. I don't think that CaptainofDespair is the Cobbler. I do, however, still think that he is the most likely candidate for Black Beorning.

I would also add that our priority should be to lynch either a Wolf or the Bear. The Cobbler is a thorn in our side and an asset to the Wolves, yes, and I would rather see him or her lynched in place of an innocent Villager. But better still to lynch one of the lyncanthropes.

For me, the issue comes down to whether we gun for the Bear or one of the remaining Wolves. There is far more chance of bagging a Wolf than a Bear, particularly as (based on the Day 1 voting) there are a number of Villagers who are most unlikely to be Wolves. But it would be great to bring down the Bear and thereby reduce our exposure at Night.

If we are going for the Bear, then I believe that CaptainofDespair should face the gallows today. He is the only Villager who, in my view, has displayed any firm evidence of Bearish behaviour.

As for the Wolves, my prime suspects are Durelin and Lalaith. But I have not discounted the possibility of Encaitare, wilwarin538 or Laitaine being Wolves either.

The following, in my opinion, are most unlikely to be Wolves:

CaptainofDespair
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

Gil-Galad I believe to be either the Cobbler or a confused but innocent Villager. His behaviour just seems too risky to me for a Wolf, particularly with one of their number down already.

Which leaves Firefoot, arcticstorm, LMP and dancing spawn. They all seem to be acting innocently to me. But, then again, that does make me rather uneasy about them ...

[Firefoot]

There are five people left to vote: SpM, Lalaith, Gurthang, Gil, and myself. With the score at Gil - 3; CoD - 5; SpM - 2; Durelin - 2; the vote could still go to any of these. I do not feel suspicious of SpM at this point, and I keep going back and forth on Gil. That leaves CoD and Durelin. I'm hesitant to vote for CoD since he would have to be the bear for the lynching to be sucessful, and I'm not convinced that I think that. Durelin could be either a wolf or the bear (I don't think she's the bear, though), and the choices for wolvish candidates are much fewer than those for bear. I want to lynch the bear, but the most important thing is to lynch a were-something. The bear will probably be easier to catch after another night or two.

Slightly random aside - I just started thinking again about why a bear would kill Alcarillo. Alcarillo only ever really indicated two other people besides Mithalwen to be suspicious - Gurthang and LMP (who he thinks is suspicious just for the early vote). His posts #48 and #60 are of note. Post #48 he decides Gurthang is pretty suspicious, then in #60 he changes his mind. Perhaps Gurthang is the were-bear? I'm not particularly convinced, but it's food for thought.

Anyway, back to Durelin vs. CoD. While CoD has certainly shown qualities that could be those of a bear, there are too many suspects for bear for us to have any certainty of catching him/her, I think. It would be different if we didn't have any suspects for wolves, but we do, and I think Durelin is likely enough to be one. Hence, my vote is

++DURELIN

[Gurthang]

Well, after having thought about it, and with time winding down, I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Captain is acting like a cobbler in my opinion, and as Saucepan mentioned a couple posts up, we need to bag a wolf or bear before the cobbler. Gil has been acting the most wolfish, in my opinion, especially yesterday when he voted for me to tie up the voting.


Votes received so far(updated):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIIII
Gil-Galad - IIII
Durelin - III