Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha! - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

wilwarin538 · 08-15-2005, 09:52 PM

Since I don't beleive Saucepan Man to be guilty and I'm not convinced enough to vote for CoD I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Since he's one of the only ones I am actually suspicious of.

Encaitare · 08-15-2005, 10:05 PM

I have already stated my reasoning in my last post, so here's the vote.

++GIL-GALAD

Gurthang · 08-15-2005, 10:52 PM

Quote:

Originally posted by Me
So, my suspect list(since everyone seems to love lists so much ) goes as follows:

1. Nonnacedak
2. Durelin
3. Gil-Galad
4. CaptainOfDespair

Since I made that list, Nonnacedak has somewhat satisfied me; enough so that I will not be voting for him TODAY. Durelin has explained herself close to satisfaction, except for one point, so I do not think I will vote for her again, TODAY at least. Her vote for Saucepan is somewhat frustrating me, because I do not consider him to be suspicious at all. It really doesn't make sense that he woudl talk about the Bear so much and be talking about himself. I think he is innocent.

So it comes down to Gil-Galad and CaptainOfDespair. Gil voted for me yesterday at a crucial time, and many have said they consider it a wolfish trick. On the other hand, Captain has been acting rather cobblerish to me. I'm still going to wait, which means I will be voting very late (within a half an hour of the end of the DAY), but I think it will be for one of those two.

Votes received so far(no order):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIII
Gil-Galad - III
Durelin - I

dancing spawn of ungoliant · 08-16-2005, 02:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoD

You might need me to die for you

Wolves might need a Cobbler to die for them...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

As far as I can tell, he [SpM] has only attacked, and not really defended anyone's innocence.

I think it's suspicious behaviour to defend your fellow villager. The wolves and bear might want to bind themselves to an innocent or the wolves might defend each other. No ordinary villager can have certain information who's guilty and who's innocent.

You have been quite talkative while I was taking a nap. Now that I have read through what you have said I think that the suspicion towards Gil, CoD, Lalaith & Durelin seems reasonable. I think either Gil or Cod is the Cobbler but I don't know what to think of Lalath and Durelin. I won't vote for them today, at least not before they say something that puts the last nail in their coffin.

**The Saucepan Man** · 08-16-2005, 04:14 AM

I see that there have been sugestions that CaptainofDespair may be the Cobbler. But I am not sure that I follow the reasoning in this regard.

As far as I can see, the only Cobbler-like behaviour that he has displayed resulted from my suggestion that he may be the Black Beorning. That was at a time when no votes had been cast and various names had been thrown around as possible Wolves. It seems to me that there was far too little uncertainty at that stage to provoke a Cobbler into acting suspiciously in the hope of offering him/her-self up in place of a Wolf. I don't think that CaptainofDespair is the Cobbler. I do, however, still think that he is the most likely candidate for Black Beorning.

I would also add that our priority should be to lynch either a Wolf or the Bear. The Cobbler is a thorn in our side and an asset to the Wolves, yes, and I would rather see him or her lynched in place of an innocent Villager. But better still to lynch one of the lyncanthropes.

For me, the issue comes down to whether we gun for the Bear or one of the remaining Wolves. There is far more chance of bagging a Wolf than a Bear, particularly as (based on the Day 1 voting) there are a number of Villagers who are most unlikely to be Wolves. But it would be great to bring down the Bear and thereby reduce our exposure at Night.

If we are going for the Bear, then I believe that CaptainofDespair should face the gallows today. He is the only Villager who, in my view, has displayed any firm evidence of Bearish behaviour.

As for the Wolves, my prime suspects are Durelin and Lalaith. But I have not discounted the possibility of Encaitare, wilwarin538 or Laitaine being Wolves either.

The following, in my opinion, are most unlikely to be Wolves:

CaptainofDespair
Meneltarmacil
SamwiseGamgee
Boromir88
Nonnacedak
Gurthang

Gil-Galad I believe to be either the Cobbler or a confused but innocent Villager. His behaviour just seems too risky to me for a Wolf, particularly with one of their number down already.

Which leaves Firefoot, arcticstorm, LMP and dancing spawn. They all seem to be acting innocently to me. But, then again, that does make me rather uneasy about them ...

Firefoot · 08-16-2005, 05:47 AM

There are five people left to vote: SpM, Lalaith, Gurthang, Gil, and myself. With the score at Gil - 3; CoD - 5; SpM - 2; Durelin - 2; the vote could still go to any of these. I do not feel suspicious of SpM at this point, and I keep going back and forth on Gil. That leaves CoD and Durelin. I'm hesitant to vote for CoD since he would have to be the bear for the lynching to be sucessful, and I'm not convinced that I think that. Durelin could be either a wolf or the bear (I don't think she's the bear, though), and the choices for wolvish candidates are much fewer than those for bear. I want to lynch the bear, but the most important thing is to lynch a were-something. The bear will probably be easier to catch after another night or two.

Slightly random aside - I just started thinking again about why a bear would kill Alcarillo. Alcarillo only ever really indicated two other people besides Mithalwen to be suspicious - Gurthang and LMP (who he thinks is suspicious just for the early vote). His posts #48 and #60 are of note. Post #48 he decides Gurthang is pretty suspicious, then in #60 he changes his mind. Perhaps Gurthang is the were-bear? I'm not particularly convinced, but it's food for thought.

Anyway, back to Durelin vs. CoD. While CoD has certainly shown qualities that could be those of a bear, there are too many suspects for bear for us to have any certainty of catching him/her, I think. It would be different if we didn't have any suspects for wolves, but we do, and I think Durelin is likely enough to be one. Hence, my vote is

++DURELIN

Lalaith · 08-16-2005, 06:00 AM

Ho hum. There was an Unexpected Party in RL at Soothsayer Mansions last night, with unscheduled guests descending, so I have only now time to read through all the thread and respond in a race against time at the last minute, no doubt making me even more suspicious. Sigh. And I don't have as much time to explain myself as I'd like.
I will vote for
++Captain of Despair
to avoid risk of double lynching which I think would be disasterous for us. But I am somewhat suspicious of Durelin and I am still not at all happy about Gurthang's strange failure to save himself yesterday. I suspect him of being the Cobbler. Boromir's posts seem to have some desire to confuse, about them.
Firefoot, along with the first four to vote for Mith, is not a wolf, whatever else she is.
Saucie would make a dangerous foe indeed, I do hope he is not an enemy, but he has I think tried to be helpful, and his reasoning in post #85 was very sound. I think he and Samwise might be Shirriffs.

Gurthang · 08-16-2005, 05:54 AM

Well, after having thought about it, and with time winding down, I will vote for:

++Gil-Galad

Captain is acting like a cobbler in my opinion, and as Saucepan mentioned a couple posts up, we need to bag a wolf or bear before the cobbler. Gil has been acting the most wolfish, in my opinion, especially yesterday when he voted for me to tie up the voting.

Votes received so far(updated):

Saucepan Man - II
CaptainOfDespair - IIIII
Gil-Galad - IIII
Durelin - III

**The Saucepan Man** · 08-16-2005, 05:59 AM

Well, having reviewed the proceedings to date, I have revised my prime Werewolf suspects. Lalaith I still believe to be a Wolf. Her vote on Day 1 looks very suspicious to me, for the reasons stated at #158. But Durelin has been acting too suspiciously for a Wolf, in my opinion. I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for me thinking that I was the Bear. And she made some random accusations earlier today, which I see as un-Wolfish behaviour. So she has moved down my list of suspects, to be replaced by Laitaine.

Laitaine voted for a known innocent on Day 1, and put in a mild defence of Mithalwen when she did so. Alcarillo was killed by the Bear over-Night. Perhaps the Bear had identified her as a possible Wolf and was trying to frame her as the Bear. That would fit in with CaptainofDespair’s encouragement of arcticstorm’s theory that she might be the Bear (assuming that CaptainofDespair is the Bear). Also, as has been pointed out, Lalaith defended Laitaine when I identified her as a possible suspect for being one of the “quiet” ones.

So, my revised list:

Cobbler: Gil-Galad or Durelin

Wolves: Lalaith and Laitaine

Black Beorning: CaptainofDespair

And now comes the time to vote.

++CAPTAINOFDESPAIR

My vote may well condemn him to the gallows. But, if he is innocent, I would be complicit in his death even if I hadn’t voted for him, since I was the one who first raised the possibility of him being the Bear. And, for the reasons stated earlier, if he is innocent, he’s most probably a gonner to-Night anyway.

On another note, unless CaptainofDespair is innocent, it is quite possible that I will not survive this NIGHT. If that be the case, all I can say is bring it on!

08-16-2005, 04:14 AM	#5
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	I see that there have been sugestions that CaptainofDespair may be the Cobbler. But I am not sure that I follow the reasoning in this regard. As far as I can see, the only Cobbler-like behaviour that he has displayed resulted from my suggestion that he may be the Black Beorning. That was at a time when no votes had been cast and various names had been thrown around as possible Wolves. It seems to me that there was far too little uncertainty at that stage to provoke a Cobbler into acting suspiciously in the hope of offering him/her-self up in place of a Wolf. I don't think that CaptainofDespair is the Cobbler. I do, however, still think that he is the most likely candidate for Black Beorning. I would also add that our priority should be to lynch either a Wolf or the Bear. The Cobbler is a thorn in our side and an asset to the Wolves, yes, and I would rather see him or her lynched in place of an innocent Villager. But better still to lynch one of the lyncanthropes. For me, the issue comes down to whether we gun for the Bear or one of the remaining Wolves. There is far more chance of bagging a Wolf than a Bear, particularly as (based on the Day 1 voting) there are a number of Villagers who are most unlikely to be Wolves. But it would be great to bring down the Bear and thereby reduce our exposure at Night. If we are going for the Bear, then I believe that CaptainofDespair should face the gallows today. He is the only Villager who, in my view, has displayed any firm evidence of Bearish behaviour. As for the Wolves, my prime suspects are Durelin and Lalaith. But I have not discounted the possibility of Encaitare, wilwarin538 or Laitaine being Wolves either. The following, in my opinion, are most unlikely to be Wolves: CaptainofDespair Meneltarmacil SamwiseGamgee Boromir88 Nonnacedak Gurthang Gil-Galad I believe to be either the Cobbler or a confused but innocent Villager. His behaviour just seems too risky to me for a Wolf, particularly with one of their number down already. Which leaves Firefoot, arcticstorm, LMP and dancing spawn. They all seem to be acting innocently to me. But, then again, that does make me rather uneasy about them ... __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind!

08-16-2005, 06:00 AM	#7
Lalaith Blithe Spirit Join Date: Jan 2003 Posts: 2,779	Ho hum. There was an Unexpected Party in RL at Soothsayer Mansions last night, with unscheduled guests descending, so I have only now time to read through all the thread and respond in a race against time at the last minute, no doubt making me even more suspicious. Sigh. And I don't have as much time to explain myself as I'd like. I will vote for ++Captain of Despair to avoid risk of double lynching which I think would be disasterous for us. But I am somewhat suspicious of Durelin and I am still not at all happy about Gurthang's strange failure to save himself yesterday. I suspect him of being the Cobbler. Boromir's posts seem to have some desire to confuse, about them. Firefoot, along with the first four to vote for Mith, is not a wolf, whatever else she is. Saucie would make a dangerous foe indeed, I do hope he is not an enemy, but he has I think tried to be helpful, and his reasoning in post #85 was very sound. I think he and Samwise might be Shirriffs. __________________ Out went the candle, and we were left darkling

08-16-2005, 05:59 AM	#9
The Saucepan Man Corpus Cacophonous Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: A green and pleasant land Posts: 8,390	Well, having reviewed the proceedings to date, I have revised my prime Werewolf suspects. Lalaith I still believe to be a Wolf. Her vote on Day 1 looks very suspicious to me, for the reasons stated at #158. But Durelin has been acting too suspiciously for a Wolf, in my opinion. I doubt that a Wolf would have voted for me thinking that I was the Bear. And she made some random accusations earlier today, which I see as un-Wolfish behaviour. So she has moved down my list of suspects, to be replaced by Laitaine. Laitaine voted for a known innocent on Day 1, and put in a mild defence of Mithalwen when she did so. Alcarillo was killed by the Bear over-Night. Perhaps the Bear had identified her as a possible Wolf and was trying to frame her as the Bear. That would fit in with CaptainofDespair’s encouragement of arcticstorm’s theory that she might be the Bear (assuming that CaptainofDespair is the Bear). Also, as has been pointed out, Lalaith defended Laitaine when I identified her as a possible suspect for being one of the “quiet” ones. So, my revised list: Cobbler: Gil-Galad or Durelin Wolves: Lalaith and Laitaine Black Beorning: CaptainofDespair And now comes the time to vote. ++CAPTAINOFDESPAIR My vote may well condemn him to the gallows. But, if he is innocent, I would be complicit in his death even if I hadn’t voted for him, since I was the one who first raised the possibility of him being the Bear. And, for the reasons stated earlier, if he is innocent, he’s most probably a gonner to-Night anyway. On another note, unless CaptainofDespair is innocent, it is quite possible that I will not survive this NIGHT. If that be the case, all I can say is bring it on! __________________ Do you mind? I'm busy doing the fishstick. It's a very delicate state of mind! Last edited by The Saucepan Man; 08-16-2005 at 06:03 AM. Reason: Tidying up, because I had to post quickly

08-15-2005, 09:52 PM	#1
wilwarin538 Fluttering Enchantment Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Canada Posts: 2,508	Since I don't beleive Saucepan Man to be guilty and I'm not convinced enough to vote for CoD I will vote for: ++Gil-Galad Since he's one of the only ones I am actually suspicious of. __________________ Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin Last edited by wilwarin538; 08-15-2005 at 09:53 PM. Reason: typo!

08-15-2005, 10:05 PM	#2
Encaitare Bittersweet Symphony Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: On the jolly starship Enterprise Posts: 1,814	I have already stated my reasoning in my last post, so here's the vote. ++GIL-GALAD

08-16-2005, 05:47 AM	#6
Firefoot Illusionary Holbytla Join Date: Dec 2003 Posts: 7,547	There are five people left to vote: SpM, Lalaith, Gurthang, Gil, and myself. With the score at Gil - 3; CoD - 5; SpM - 2; Durelin - 2; the vote could still go to any of these. I do not feel suspicious of SpM at this point, and I keep going back and forth on Gil. That leaves CoD and Durelin. I'm hesitant to vote for CoD since he would have to be the bear for the lynching to be sucessful, and I'm not convinced that I think that. Durelin could be either a wolf or the bear (I don't think she's the bear, though), and the choices for wolvish candidates are much fewer than those for bear. I want to lynch the bear, but the most important thing is to lynch a were-something. The bear will probably be easier to catch after another night or two. Slightly random aside - I just started thinking again about why a bear would kill Alcarillo. Alcarillo only ever really indicated two other people besides Mithalwen to be suspicious - Gurthang and LMP (who he thinks is suspicious just for the early vote). His posts #48 and #60 are of note. Post #48 he decides Gurthang is pretty suspicious, then in #60 he changes his mind. Perhaps Gurthang is the were-bear? I'm not particularly convinced, but it's food for thought. Anyway, back to Durelin vs. CoD. While CoD has certainly shown qualities that could be those of a bear, there are too many suspects for bear for us to have any certainty of catching him/her, I think. It would be different if we didn't have any suspects for wolves, but we do, and I think Durelin is likely enough to be one. Hence, my vote is ++DURELIN

08-16-2005, 05:54 AM	#8
Gurthang Sword of Spirit Join Date: Aug 2003 Location: Oh, I'm around. Posts: 1,401	Well, after having thought about it, and with time winding down, I will vote for: ++Gil-Galad Captain is acting like a cobbler in my opinion, and as Saucepan mentioned a couple posts up, we need to bag a wolf or bear before the cobbler. Gil has been acting the most wolfish, in my opinion, especially yesterday when he voted for me to tie up the voting. Votes received so far(updated): Saucepan Man - II CaptainOfDespair - IIIII Gil-Galad - IIII Durelin - III __________________ I'm on a Mission from God.