Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[The Saucepan Man]

OK, here’s my handy list of Day 2 voting:

1. CaptainofDespair for SpM (SpM – 1)
2. Durelin for SpM (SpM – 2)
3. Meneltarmacil for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair – 1)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 1; Gil-Galad – 1)
5. SamwiseGamgee for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 2; Gil-Galad – 1)
6. Boromir88 for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 3; Gil-Galad – 1)
7. arcticstorm for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad – 1)
8. Laitaine for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 1; Durelin – 1)
9. Wilwarin538 for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 2; Durelin – 1)
10. Encaitare for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 1)
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
13. Firefoot for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 3)
14. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
15. SpM for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 6; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
16. Lalaith for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 7; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)

Gil-Galad did not vote.

I still believe that none of those who voted second to sixth for Mithalwen on Day 1 are Wolves. To have voted for a fellow Wolf on Day 1, at a time when she was attracting all the votes but could yet be saved, would be an incredible bluff. A good way of looking innocent thereafter, perhaps. But surely too risky.

And, as I have said above, I believe that at least one Wolf, and possibly two voted for CaptainofDespair yesterday, concluding that he was (as indeed he was) the Ranger.

The only Villagers who were not in the first six to vote for Mithalwen and who voted for CaptainofDespair are:

Arcticstorm
Dancing spawn of ungoliant
The Saucepan Man
Lalaith

Arctistorm’s accusations of Mithalwen earlier on Day 1 make him less suspicious in my eyes. And I know that I am innocent.

Which leaves Lalaith and dancing spawn. Lalaith I already suspect. But I really have no idea about dancing spawn. She seems innocent, but it might prove dangerous to assume her innocence simply on that basis.

I am less convinced that a Wolf would have voted for Gil-Galad, since he is such a prime candidate for Cobbler (even if he is not one). The Wolves don’t know who the Cobbler is, but will want him or her to stay alive for as long as one of their own number is not at risk.

Difficult to say who the Bear would have voted for as, let's face it, the Bear can vote for just about anyone without looking too suspicious.

I must admit that, on reflection, the Night's events make me even less suspicious of Durelin, of Werewovery at least. Firefoot's killing points to her, since she made strong accusations against Firefoot yester-Day and Firefoot voted for her. That looks mightily like a frame up to me (although it could be a bold double-bluff, I suppose).

Originally Posted by Lalaith

I'm still feeling wary about Boromir and Gurthang. Boromir's assertions that innocence should not defend itself seemed instrumental in the lynching of our Ranger. And Gurthang because of his funny voting on the first day.

Surely, though, you cannot suspect them of being Wolves. Boromir88's vote for Mithalwen was pretty decisive, and Mithalwen's vote for Gurthang speaks in his favour. Either of them could be the Bear, of course. Indeed, it would not surprise me at all if the Bear was hiding in that gaggle of Villagers who voted early for Mithalwen.

Originally Posted by arcticstorm

LMP heads up my bear suspicion list

Arcticstorm, the analysis that leads you to that conclusion is an attractive one. And my thoughts have been leading in that direction too. My only concern is that his very early vote on Day 1 might be regarded as overly risky behaviour for a Bear. Nevertheless, I feel that LMP has a role to play in all of this.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

As for the other Shirriff, my instinct at this stage, is that they should keep quiet unless they are in serious danger of being lynched. And that anyone who has suspicions about his/her identity should also keep quiet.

I tend to agree. Unless there is some way to organise a mass lynching ...