Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Lalaith]

Something has occurred to me.
Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrue:

but [Lalaith] had not accused him at all previously, having said that he was either just being himself or was the Cobbler.

Here's what I said in post 220.

Gil-Galad - Like nearly all of us have said. Could be a wolf, could be the cobbler, could just be Gil.

Chief wolf suspects: LMP and dancing spawn. Minor wolf suspect: Gil.

I shall now go over your statements about others as well to check for accuracy. *glares suspiciously*

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

SpM, I insist you you retract this statement about me, as misleading and untrue

Calm down, Lal! You have moved from chief Wolf suspect to Wolf suspect No 4 on my list over-Night.

OK, it's not strictly correct, for which I apologise. I had not spotted your reference to him as a minor Wolf suspect, admittedly. But there was no intention to mislead and I don't think it really changes the import of my point.

Edit: That should be Wolf suspect No 3 ...

[Lalaith]

Harrumph. You miners are all the same. Putting words into people's mouths and twisting them something they didn't mean.

[The Saucepan Man]

Some thoughts on what has been said so far today.

Originally Posted by LMP

The Seer will be killed tonight, attacked by both werebear and werewolf, because that person has not bee subtle enough to escape their notice.

This was LMP’s prediction for last Night. Personally, I think that the Seer has been very subtle – perhaps even too subtle (and no, that’s not an attempt to flush him or her out). However, I think that LMP may have thought that he had spotted the Seer yester-Day. I also believe that he dropped a hint as to who it might be and that (assuming that he is the Cobbler or the Bear) he was hoping that the Wolf would have picked up on it. I have an idea who LMP thinks the Seer might be, but I think that he’s wrong.

Originally Posted by LMP

Nonnacedak will not have been killed, because I think … [he] is the remaining Wolf.

Originally Posted by Laitaine

I still think the final werewolf is our fisher, Non.
Makes perfect sense for him to jump on wagon for Gil‘s kill,

Please. Just look at his votes. A Wolf might vote for another Wolf at a critical time once or, if very bold, twice even. But three nights in a row!!??

LMP’s and Laitaine’s insistence that Nonnacedak is the Wolf look very suspicious to me. He may be the Bear, but he is not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I know suspicions of me are arrising.

They are? As far as I can tell, only Durelin is suspicious of you.

Originally Posted by LMP

Oh, and about the above proposal/request, ask yourself "why would LMP vote so early again...

1-if he was a werewolf?
2-if he was a werebear?

Simple. You would do so to divert suspicion. Your early Day 1 vote has previously been noted as making you seem overly suspicious and therefore not something a Were-thing would do. If you are innocent, then you should not be voting with such haste, before we have all had a chance to share our thoughts over yester-Day’s lynching and last Night’s kills. I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Lmp may be the Cobbler. Yesterday, he urged the Seer to dream of him. If the Seer did indeed dream of him, he will just see an ordinary villager, of course.

A very good point. If he’s not the Bear, he may well be the Cobbler. Either way, however, I think we should be looking for the Wolf today.

And it seems to me that, so far to-Day, there has been far too much defensiveness and not enough analysis.

[Lalaith]

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....

I am becoming increasingly convinced that lmp must be the Cobbler. As well as my Seer point earlier, I thought - why else flush out arcticstorm as Shirriff so conspiciously? If Lmp were a bear or wolf, having realised arcticstorm was the Shirriff he could just have killed him that night, the open way it was done suggests it was done for the benefit of the weres, not actually by a were.
So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp.
BUT, Lmp's vote for spawn has got me wondering. Could it be a double bluff? Lmp knows he is under suspicion by an awful lot of us. His lead is unlikely to be followed, the vote might divert the rest of us away from spawn.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Actually I would ask the Seer, whoever s/he, to be careful. I think attempts are being made to flush him/her out, and with eleven of us left of which only two killers remain, we need you around more than ever....

I thoroughly agree. I do not, repeat not, want the Seer to come forward unless they have identified both of our remaining beasts. However, I do have some thoughts as to who the Seer might be and will be scanning certain Villager's posts very carefully for some guidance.

So today we could do a lot worse than lynch Lmp.

We could do a lot better, though.

LMP as Cobbler is beginning to make a lot of sense, Lalaith. Your reasoning looks sound to me and I am now beginning to suspect you a lot less than I did previously.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

However, now that we know that Gil was a werewolf, we know that the werewolves were clearly willing to take some pretty considerable and frankly brazen risks to try and win this one ...

True, although it is more likely, in my view, that the Wolves will have behaved in different ways to avoid becoming conspicuous through similar patterns of behaviour.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I'm with SpM on this one- let's try to lynch the wolf tonight and concentrate on bearish behaviour later on. At the moment I do have a pretty good idea of who is the bear, but the wolf I am not so sure of. I think that Laitaine, however, is our biggest suspect at the moment. However, now that we know that Gil was a werewolf, we know that the werewolves were clearly willing to take some pretty considerable and frankly brazen risks to try and win this one, which means that some people who hadn't originally featured in my thinking are now creaping their way in.

As a little extra, lmp, I want you to know that I am not satisfied with the explanations you have given for the criticisms you made of me way back when (no really, when was that? I shall have to check!) and I will confront you on that soon, but not today: today I have other business.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by SpM

I suspect dancing spawn too but I cannot be anything like certain and most certainly would not vote for her without giving her the opportunity to speak.

Thanks, that's very generous of you.
Well, my vote for Mith is suspicious because I voted a wolf with the majority and my vote for lmp is supicious because I didn't vote a wolf with the majority. Make your minds, good people.

The Seer has done great job hiding his/her role. I trust the Seer's own deliberative ability to decide when to step forth. Anyway, the Seer is welcome to dream of me because I have nothing to hide.

I'll go now back to read what everybody has said during these last days. I just wanted to let you know that I'm here in case you want to start accusing me.

[Gurthang]

LMP, after going back and reading through you posts, I am now much less convinced that you are the werewolf or the werebear. But I am becoming increasingly suspicious that you are the cobbler.

One thing I have noticed is that you doubt your own ability to analyze and deduct, yet you said that you know who the Seer is because they have not been subtle enough. If true, you are obviously, and thankfully, smarter than the werecreatures because our Seer is still alive.

I'm going to look over the voting, and try to make a table out of it so it will be easier to read. I don't know if that will work, but...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

It's a shame that it was the wolf that killed Alcarillo because his death hardly leaves us any tracks to follow. The bear, for one, can kill whomever s/he pleases so I guess we can't draw too many conclusions from Wilwa's death, either.

I think it's plausible that lmp is the cobbler since I'm fairly convinced that there's something wrong with him. However, I agree that it's the easiest and most rewarding thing to kill the wolf today.

Btw, I don't like when people say things like "any fellow wolf with half a brain-cell would do one of two things" or "I must be a really stupid bear to coontinually vote the same way people have claimed the bear would vote". There aren't rules how a werebeast will act. Therefore there aren't any rules how they won't act, either.

[Gurthang]

Okay, making a table is taking way to long, so I am just going to copy Saucepan Man's lists from each day. I have put wolf names and those that voted for them in Bold.

Day 1

1. LMP for Gurthang (Gurthang 1)
2. Mithalwen for Gurthang (Gurthang 2)
3. CaptainofDespair for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 1)
4. SamwiseGamgee for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2)
5. Durelin for Firefoot (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 2; Firefoot 1)
6. Meneltarmacil for Mithalwen (Gurthang 2; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
7. Gil-Galad for Gurthang (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 3; Firefoot 1)
8. Boromir88 for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 4; Firefoot 1)
9. Alcarillo for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 5; Firefoot 1)
10. Nonnacedak for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1)
11. Mormegil for Meneltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1)
12. Laitaine for Alcarillo (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1)
13. Gurthang for Durelin (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 1; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
14. Lalaith for Menltarmacil (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 6; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
15. Arcticstorm for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 7; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
16. Dancing spawn for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 8; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
17. The Saucepan Man for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 9; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)
18. Firefoot for Mithalwen (Gurthang 3; Mithalwen 10; Firefoot 1; Meneltarmacil 2; Alcarillo 1; Durelin 1)

Did not vote: Encaitare and wilwarin538 (although wilwa had earlier explained that she might not be able to vote).

Day 2

1. CaptainofDespair for SpM (SpM – 1)
2. Durelin for SpM (SpM – 2)
3. Meneltarmacil for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair – 1)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 1; Gil-Galad – 1)
5. SamwiseGamgee for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 2; Gil-Galad – 1)
6. Boromir88 for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 3; Gil-Galad – 1)
7. arcticstorm for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad – 1)
8. Laitaine for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 1; Durelin – 1)
9. Wilwarin538 for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 2; Durelin – 1)
10. Encaitare for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 1)
11. LMP for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 4; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
12. Dancing spawn for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 2)
13. Firefoot for Durelin (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 3; Durelin – 3)
14. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 5; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
15. SpM for CaptainofDespair: (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 6; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)
16. Lalaith for CaptainofDespair (SpM - 2; CaptainofDespair - 7; Gil-Galad - 4; Durelin – 3)

Gil-Galad did not vote.

And Day 3

1. Durelin for Boromir88 (Boromir 88 - 1)
2. Menel for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 1)
3. Boromir88 for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 2)
4. Nonnacedak for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3)
5. Laitaine for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 3; Nonnacedak - 1)
6. Gurthang for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 4; Nonnacedak - 1)
7. Lalaith for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1)
8. Dancing spawn for LMP (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 1; LMP - 1)
9. LMP for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 - 1; Gil-Galad - 5; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
10. SamwiseGamgee for Gil-Galad (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 2; LMP - 1)
11. Wilwarin538 for Nonnacedak (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1)
12. Arcticstorm for Durelin (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1)
13. SpM for dancing spawn (Boromir 88 -1; Gil-Galad - 6; Nonnacedak - 3; LMP - 1; Durelin -1; dancing spawn - 1)

Gil-Galad did not vote. (Perhaps he thought that, by not doing so, he would divert suspicion away from himelf should he survive the Day.)

Seeing as how both Gil and Mithalwen voted for me on Day 1, it would stand to reason that the other wolf would not have voted for me. Which is exactly the reason I am suspicious of LMP. It's too good of a bluff to not work out. Yet his other posts make me think he is a cobbler rather than the third wolf.

So, let's take a look at the voting (of us living).

Nonnacedak is the only one who voted for a wolf every day.

Those that got wolves two out of three:
Boromir, Gurthang, Meneltarmacil, and SamwiseGamgee.

Those that got wolves one out of three:
Dancing Spawn, Lalaith, and Saucepan Man.

And those that never got a wolf:
Durelin, LMP, and Laitaine.

It makes sense to me that a wolf would not vote for a fellow were all three times. It is also unlikely they would not vote for their fellow at least once. That leaves the middle seven of us.

Boromir- voted early for Mith on Day 1 to put her ahead of me. Not very supsect.

Gurthang- (of course I don't suspect myself, but I'll write something here anyway) Voted for Gil two in a row, and early yesterday.

Meneltarmacil - voted early for Mith on Day 1, also to put her ahead of me. Not very suspect.

SamwiseGamgee - voted for Gil to seal his fate. (There still could have been a tie, but Gil would have died anyway.) Slightly suspect because the other voters that day weren't sticking together.

Dancing Spawn - voted late for Mith to seal death's door. Yet Saucepan had still voiced intent to vote for Mith. Slightly suspect.

Lalaith - voted in the middle for Gil to give him a four vote lead. Not very suspect.

Saucepan Man - voted late for Mith after death was assured. Slightly suspect.

Of the three that I just named 'Slightly suspect', I am only slightly suspect because I have not suspected them before this. I'd be interested in hearing some more from them.

I also note that LMP and Durelin have not voted for a wolf, and I have supsected both of them before.

Wow, sorry that was so long.