Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Oddwen]

The Villagers awoke with a new spring in their step - no more Werewolves! Now there need only be one kill in the NIGHT. Wait a minute...'kill'...what did that remind them of?

Oh yeah. One of their number was missing.

After making a list and checking it twice, they went off to the perpetually nice Soothsayer's house. They hardly bothered to knock, but went inside.

Alas, Lalaith lay there on the floor, her head flattened by the paw of the bear. Beside her was a scribbled note, reading "Sooth! Sooth! Sooth! Soooooooth!"

Nobody knew what it meant. Ah, wait a minute...in her closet, there was a new suit. Of course, she was talking about a new suit! With that cleared up and their demeanor as cheerful as it could be under the circumstances, they started the talks for the DAY.


Boromir88
Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant
Durelin
Gurthang
littlemanpoet
Meneltarmacil
Nonnacedak
SamwiseGamgee
The Saucepan Man

Dead:

Oddwen (Mod) - Skeletonized by Wolves on NIGHT 1
Mithalwen (Werewolf) - Cheesily lynched on DAY 1
Alcarillo (Villager) - Smashed to bits on NIGHT 2
Mormegil (Villager) - Blown away on NIGHT 2
CaptainofDespair (Ranger) - Innocent blood rejected by nature, received by men on DAY 2
Encaitare (Villager) - Thrown off a cliff by a Bear on NIGHT 3
Firefoot (Sherriff) - Killed by clowns on NIGHT 3
Gil-Galad (Werewolf) - Lynch'ed!! on DAY 3
Arcticstorm (Sherriff) - Touched by a ten foot pole on NIGHT 4
Wilwarin (Villager) - This fine specimen displayed on NIGHT 4
Laitaine (Werewolf) - Boo hoo hoo, Wolves are through. DAY 4
Lalaith (Villager) - Verily and forsooth, she was crushed on NIGHT 5


It's now DAY 5. Y'all know what to do.

[Gurthang]

Poor, Lalaith. I can honestly say she her soothing was always calming to me. I wonder why this beast would choose her? Alas the time to mourn is not now, but will come soon.

Well, congratulations to everyone on getting all three wolves in just four days. We only lost one innocent to our own hands in the process, giving us a 75% accuracy! Let's keep up the good work, and we can get this bear in a Day or two.

If our Seer has found our bear, I suggest stepping out so we can finish this today. If you haven't, well, then don't.

Now, we can concentrate on catching that bear. So far we have had mixed feelings about who to go after, but now we all have one objective.

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now. I was suspicious of Durelin on day one, so I think I will go back again and see if I can find anything in her posts.


P.S. After Saucepan shows us his newest voting list, I'll see about making another post including all of them.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alas poor Lalaith! I suspected her, Villagers.

In fact, I had her pinned for either a Wolf or the Seer. The latter being the reason why I never voted for her, or suggested others should, despite her being one of my chief suspects. It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too, which is interesting.

I am not sure that yester-Day's voting will tell us much concerning the Bear. But here it is in any event:

1. LMP for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 1)
2. SamwiseGamgee for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 1)
3. Meneltarmacil for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 2)
4. Durelin for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 2)
5. Boromir88 for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 3)
6. Gurthang for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 4)
7. Nonnacedak for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 5)
8. Dancing spawn for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 6)
9. SpM for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 7)
10. Lalaith for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 8)

Unfortunately, voting patterns tell us much less about the Bear than they did about the Wolves. But they may help, so it is worth looking at them.

I really do not have a lot to go on as for as the Bear is concerned at the moment. LMP remains my chief suspect, although he may well also be the Cobbler. And, if he is not the Bear, then what he said at the end of yester-Day concerning Meneltarmacil makes some sense.

I will not be around now for a few hours, but will return later to share what further thoughts I may have.

PS I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...?

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by Saucepan Man
I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...?

Or try to force us into a multiple lynch the last day so nobody wins. In which case it would be better to be rid of him.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now.

Yeah, it isn't the cobbler's duty to help the bear win, now is it?

Originally Posted by SpM

It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too

Interesting thought. Well, it's time for me to go back to read Lalaith's posts. I'll post more in a few hours.

[SamwiseGamgee]

So hands up if you're not the werebear and thougfht it'd be a great idea! But seriously, we did well, fellow villagers, and now we know there is but one evil being left in our midst. However, the hard work is just beginning. This Beorning isn't going to be easy to find. I have my suspicions, but the more I think over the subject the more I realise that perhaps those I suspect least of all and have even come to trust may be the bear. *gasp* But anyway, whatever we've been doing thus far it's worked pretty well, I would say, and so we should keep at it. I'll post later this evening/night when I've looked back over the thread. I leave you with my thought for the day: Trust nobody.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

There are basically two people who seem bearish to me.

I'm willing to believe that SpM is on our side though I suspected him before. I just can't understad why he isn't dead yet. There aren't many who suspect him (at least in public) and he's been very helpful in the werecreature hunting. He also has a habit of making strong cases against people finding quotes, good reasons and searching every inch. The odd thing is that then he steps back and says that it might be that way, who knows, and lets us start voting.

Anyway, my first bear candidate is Meneltarmacil.

Originally Posted by Menel, #189

I wonder why ye Beare killed Enca? She was ye quieteste person in ye village. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to try and silence someone who's barely spoken.

That was a bit odd statement (Samwise noticed that, too).

Originally Posted by Menel, #205

I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88...

I admit that sounds reasonable. However, he voted for CoD himself but because he brought this up, it makes him look innocent. A wise bearish tactic?

Menel has voted all three wolves + CoD, so he's been mostly helpful but if it's really the bear's interest to get rid of the wolves, Menel would have done great job as one.

Then there's lmp. I'm a bit afraid to make a case against him because he might throw custard pies at me or have a tantrum but I'm going to say this nevertheless. Look at Arcticstorm's post here and how lmp answered it. I think it seems a bit over-selfdefensive considering that arcticstorm said that it might just be an attempt to frame lmp up. Lalaith seemed suspicious of lmp as well and now she's dead, too. Wether lmp isn't the bear and this is a frame-up or then he's indeed the last werebeast and he's kind of double bluffing.

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?

I think lmp's post #275 is just really weird. Lalaith had some interesting points in her post #290 . I'm more inclined to think that lmp's the cobbler than a bear but who knows. At least his voting seems cobblerish.

Ok, that was confusing but so are my thoughts. I'll be back later.

[Nonnacedak]

Hurray the wolfs are no more! We just need the bear and we will finally be able to sleep well at night. Im about as lost as the rest of you on this one. Hopefully we wont lynch the seer tonight so he/she can have a bearish dream.

Your thoughts on Meneltarmacil are interesting. Its to bad we cant go off voting patterns anymore. That really helped a lot.

Ill have to scour the posts to come up with any sort of help.

Great job everyone on the wolf massacre.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few further thoughts.

(NB My use of masculine pronouns should not be taken as indicating that I believe the Bear to be male - he or she could be either gender.)

First, a question. How quickly would the Beorning want to kill off the Werewolves? While they are alive, he benefits from the two kills per Night. There is a chance that they will kill him, but he knows that they will not be wanting to do so because they want two kills per Night and they win if he is the only other Villager left standing with them at the end. The risk the Bear takes by keeping them alive is that they will mistakenly kill him, believing him to be innocent (or Gifted).

I am not sure of the answer, but I do wonder whether the Beorning will have wanted the Wolves killed off quite so quickly. It seems to me that he would at least have wanted the last Wolf to remain alive a little longer.

Now, we could not be sure that Laitaine was the last Wolf, but she was certainly a prime candidate. Only LMP and Durelin voted for dancing spawn. Problem is, dancing spawn was quite high on most people's suspicion lists too. One of them is probably the Cobbler. That doesn't necessarily mean that the other is the Bear, but it's worth "bearing" in mind.

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?

But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted? LMP's statement seems more likely to have been a Cobbleresque signal to the Wolves.

But let's face it, the Bear could be just about anyone. By my calculation, we have about four Days maximum (including today) to find him. Otherwise he wins. That doesn't give us a lot of wiggle room.

Boromir88 said yester-Day that he had an idea to find the Bear. I hope that we will hear from him soon.

[Durelin]

Notice that pretty much everyone that The Saucepan Man has been *suspicious* of is dead.

I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Durelin, yes, I noticed that, too.

Originally Posted by Me

See how his [SpM] suspects have a tendency to end up lynched? He's very persuasive though he doesn't directly tell us how to vote. If he's the bear, he is extremely dangerous.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else.

I agree. Except, you can insert any name over SpM's and the sentence still sounds perfectly plausible.

Originally Posted by SpM

But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted?

Maybe, unless he didn't really mean that or he thought the wolves would take care of Boromir. As I said, it seems more of an action of the cobbler than bear, though.

[Meneltarmacil]

It wille be harde finding ye Beare, but I can telle you now that I am not a Beare no matter what thou thinkest of me. I am merely another innocente like thee. However, I cannot prove my innocence to thee so my statemente helpeth little. But as for Bearish-looking people, I suggeste we looke at Boromir88. He hath been somewhat involved in ye discussiones, but doth not poste as often as ye others here. Perhaps he trieth to stay under ye radar whilst posting juste enoughe to not be extremely suspecte. He putteth in critical votes for Wolves, but as dancing spawn pointeth oute, this maye be in ye Beare's beste intereste.