Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Gurthang]

Poor, Lalaith. I can honestly say she her soothing was always calming to me. I wonder why this beast would choose her? Alas the time to mourn is not now, but will come soon.

Well, congratulations to everyone on getting all three wolves in just four days. We only lost one innocent to our own hands in the process, giving us a 75% accuracy! Let's keep up the good work, and we can get this bear in a Day or two.

If our Seer has found our bear, I suggest stepping out so we can finish this today. If you haven't, well, then don't.

Now, we can concentrate on catching that bear. So far we have had mixed feelings about who to go after, but now we all have one objective.

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now. I was suspicious of Durelin on day one, so I think I will go back again and see if I can find anything in her posts.


P.S. After Saucepan shows us his newest voting list, I'll see about making another post including all of them.

[The Saucepan Man]

Alas poor Lalaith! I suspected her, Villagers.

In fact, I had her pinned for either a Wolf or the Seer. The latter being the reason why I never voted for her, or suggested others should, despite her being one of my chief suspects. It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too, which is interesting.

I am not sure that yester-Day's voting will tell us much concerning the Bear. But here it is in any event:

1. LMP for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 1)
2. SamwiseGamgee for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 1)
3. Meneltarmacil for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 1; Laitaine - 2)
4. Durelin for dancing spawn (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 2)
5. Boromir88 for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 3)
6. Gurthang for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 4)
7. Nonnacedak for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 5)
8. Dancing spawn for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 6)
9. SpM for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 7)
10. Lalaith for Laitaine (dancing spawn - 2; Laitaine - 8)

Unfortunately, voting patterns tell us much less about the Bear than they did about the Wolves. But they may help, so it is worth looking at them.

I really do not have a lot to go on as for as the Bear is concerned at the moment. LMP remains my chief suspect, although he may well also be the Cobbler. And, if he is not the Bear, then what he said at the end of yester-Day concerning Meneltarmacil makes some sense.

I will not be around now for a few hours, but will return later to share what further thoughts I may have.

PS I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...?

[Gurthang]

Originally posted by Saucepan Man
I wonder what the Cobbler will do now? Now his/her team has lost, will s/he throw his/her lot in with the Villagers or the Bear? Or simply give up contributing ...?

Or try to force us into a multiple lynch the last day so nobody wins. In which case it would be better to be rid of him.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

I'm still leaning towards LMP being the cobbler, which means I have no idea what to do with him now.

Yeah, it isn't the cobbler's duty to help the bear win, now is it?

Originally Posted by SpM

It seems the Bear may have thought that she was the Seer too

Interesting thought. Well, it's time for me to go back to read Lalaith's posts. I'll post more in a few hours.

[SamwiseGamgee]

So hands up if you're not the werebear and thougfht it'd be a great idea! But seriously, we did well, fellow villagers, and now we know there is but one evil being left in our midst. However, the hard work is just beginning. This Beorning isn't going to be easy to find. I have my suspicions, but the more I think over the subject the more I realise that perhaps those I suspect least of all and have even come to trust may be the bear. *gasp* But anyway, whatever we've been doing thus far it's worked pretty well, I would say, and so we should keep at it. I'll post later this evening/night when I've looked back over the thread. I leave you with my thought for the day: Trust nobody.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

There are basically two people who seem bearish to me.

I'm willing to believe that SpM is on our side though I suspected him before. I just can't understad why he isn't dead yet. There aren't many who suspect him (at least in public) and he's been very helpful in the werecreature hunting. He also has a habit of making strong cases against people finding quotes, good reasons and searching every inch. The odd thing is that then he steps back and says that it might be that way, who knows, and lets us start voting.

Anyway, my first bear candidate is Meneltarmacil.

Originally Posted by Menel, #189

I wonder why ye Beare killed Enca? She was ye quieteste person in ye village. It wouldn't make a lot of sense to try and silence someone who's barely spoken.

That was a bit odd statement (Samwise noticed that, too).

Originally Posted by Menel, #205

I believe it likely that ye Beare was among those who voted for ye Captain yesterDaye. Ye Beare was probably one of ye people who caste a lot of suspicione on him too, as it would drawe it awaye from him/herselfe. I muste be off soone, but after I returne in a fewe hours, I shall reviewe postes by those such as Boromir88...

I admit that sounds reasonable. However, he voted for CoD himself but because he brought this up, it makes him look innocent. A wise bearish tactic?

Menel has voted all three wolves + CoD, so he's been mostly helpful but if it's really the bear's interest to get rid of the wolves, Menel would have done great job as one.

Then there's lmp. I'm a bit afraid to make a case against him because he might throw custard pies at me or have a tantrum but I'm going to say this nevertheless. Look at Arcticstorm's post here and how lmp answered it. I think it seems a bit over-selfdefensive considering that arcticstorm said that it might just be an attempt to frame lmp up. Lalaith seemed suspicious of lmp as well and now she's dead, too. Wether lmp isn't the bear and this is a frame-up or then he's indeed the last werebeast and he's kind of double bluffing.

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?

I think lmp's post #275 is just really weird. Lalaith had some interesting points in her post #290 . I'm more inclined to think that lmp's the cobbler than a bear but who knows. At least his voting seems cobblerish.

Ok, that was confusing but so are my thoughts. I'll be back later.

[Nonnacedak]

Hurray the wolfs are no more! We just need the bear and we will finally be able to sleep well at night. Im about as lost as the rest of you on this one. Hopefully we wont lynch the seer tonight so he/she can have a bearish dream.

Your thoughts on Meneltarmacil are interesting. Its to bad we cant go off voting patterns anymore. That really helped a lot.

Ill have to scour the posts to come up with any sort of help.

Great job everyone on the wolf massacre.

[The Saucepan Man]

A few further thoughts.

(NB My use of masculine pronouns should not be taken as indicating that I believe the Bear to be male - he or she could be either gender.)

First, a question. How quickly would the Beorning want to kill off the Werewolves? While they are alive, he benefits from the two kills per Night. There is a chance that they will kill him, but he knows that they will not be wanting to do so because they want two kills per Night and they win if he is the only other Villager left standing with them at the end. The risk the Bear takes by keeping them alive is that they will mistakenly kill him, believing him to be innocent (or Gifted).

I am not sure of the answer, but I do wonder whether the Beorning will have wanted the Wolves killed off quite so quickly. It seems to me that he would at least have wanted the last Wolf to remain alive a little longer.

Now, we could not be sure that Laitaine was the last Wolf, but she was certainly a prime candidate. Only LMP and Durelin voted for dancing spawn. Problem is, dancing spawn was quite high on most people's suspicion lists too. One of them is probably the Cobbler. That doesn't necessarily mean that the other is the Bear, but it's worth "bearing" in mind.

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

This isn't particularly bearish but take a look at lmp's post #230 . It seems that he's practically saying that Boromir is a gifted. Wouldn't a regular innocent want to keep it to himself if he thinks he's found a gifted?

But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted? LMP's statement seems more likely to have been a Cobbleresque signal to the Wolves.

But let's face it, the Bear could be just about anyone. By my calculation, we have about four Days maximum (including today) to find him. Otherwise he wins. That doesn't give us a lot of wiggle room.

Boromir88 said yester-Day that he had an idea to find the Bear. I hope that we will hear from him soon.

[Durelin]

Notice that pretty much everyone that The Saucepan Man has been *suspicious* of is dead.

I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Durelin, yes, I noticed that, too.

Originally Posted by Me

See how his [SpM] suspects have a tendency to end up lynched? He's very persuasive though he doesn't directly tell us how to vote. If he's the bear, he is extremely dangerous.

Originally Posted by Durelin

I say that Saucepan Man is the bear.

Or it's someone else.

I agree. Except, you can insert any name over SpM's and the sentence still sounds perfectly plausible.

Originally Posted by SpM

But wouldn't the Bear simply have killed Boromir88 himself last night if he thought him Gifted?

Maybe, unless he didn't really mean that or he thought the wolves would take care of Boromir. As I said, it seems more of an action of the cobbler than bear, though.

[Gurthang]

Durelin, I've read through most of your posts. I can't find much 'bearish' activity, but I am not quite sure what to look for. I just have some strange uneasy feeling about you.

Some of you are now leaning on Saucepan Man a little. I have not been suspicious of him before, but that is because he hasn't done anything that I would call suspicious. But, of course, what better place for a bear to hide than right in the forefront of the attack at the wolves. Still, if he were the bear, I think he would have misled us and left the wolves alive a little longer, so he would continue the two kills per night.

Maybe we should take a look at Nonnacedak again. I was satisified with his innocence a while ago, but he really seems to do a good job of staying hidden. He posts little, and seems too worried about people implicating him.

Boromir, you said you had a way to find this bear. I am really at a loss about finding it, so I would love to hear your plan.

[Boromir88]

Me gifted? That's kind of funny.

Anyway, my plan for finding the bear was the bear is probably in the majority each time (which means a lot of people could be suspected), but I'll get all the voters together and see who's name keeps reappearing.

So, I think it's true that the bear doesn't care who gets lynched as long as it's not himself. I don't buy the strategy of the bear wanting to keep the wolves alive, first off, s/he doesn't know who the wolves are, and two it's not him/her that's getting lynched. I just don't think the bear would benefit greatly from the wolves being around.

I mean we have to think that yes the bear benefits from another kill a night with the wolves around, but that other kill could he/she could be the one that's knocked off. Therefor, the bear might want to get rid of the wolves as fast as possible, and again, doesn't matter who gets lynched (wolf or not) as long as it's not him/herself.

Since we've had such a hard time finding the bear at this point, I think the bear is hiding amongst everyone. Hiding in the majority, because right now it appears as anyone could be the bear, and it's hard to pick out one person. But, let's attempt to anyway.

So, Day 1 for Mithalwen (wolf)...

1. Captain of Despair
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Meneltarmacil
4. Boromir88
5. Alcarillo
6. Nonnacedak
7. Arcticstorm
8. Dancing spawn
9. Saucepan
10. Firefoot.

Day 2, for Captain of Despair (Ranger)...

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise Gamgee
3. Boromir88
4. arcticstorm
5. Dancing Spawn
6. Saucepan
7. Lalaith

Day 3, for Gil-galad (wolf)...

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Boromir88
3. Nonnacedak
4. Gurthang
5. Lalaith
6. Samwise

Day 4, for Laitane (wolf)...

1. SamwiseGamgee
2. Meneltarmacil
3. Boromir88
4. Gurthang
5. Nonnacedak
6. Dancing Spawn
7. Saucepan
8. Lalaith

The ones in bold are the ones that voted in the majority atleast 3 of the 4 times. I believe the bear is one that is in the majority. The problem is only one of these is the bear, the others are innocents. So, here's my further thoughts.

Boromir88- Me? Yes, I vote a lot in the majority, but bear, I can say I'm not.

SamwiseGamgee- Doesn't say too much. Seems to go along with whatever people have to say, doesn't put in much of her (correct?) own imput. Mildy suspicious.

Dancing Spawn- still not convinced one her. She recently has offered some useful information, told us some thoughts on people, not too suspicious, but again mildly.

Meneltarmacil- He does often vote and looking back through some of his posts he's grown in suspicion. Ok so here it is on Menel...

Both mormegil and lalaith voted for Meneltarmacil on Day 1. Both are now dead. Set up? Perhaps Menel thought mormegil was the Seer, as he was the first one to vote for Menel, then decided to whack him that night hoping he found the Seer. Lalaith is now gone I must admit this points to Meneltarmacil.

Also on Day 2 (i'll search for the post number) when deliberations on Captain and Gil-galad began he chimed in for the Seer to dream of whichever one did not die in the lynching. Trying to get the Seer drawn away from you Menel?

He's more than mildly suspicious, but I'm afraid at this stage it's hard to tell, Menel could be the bear, or could just be an innocent, as could everyone.

Finally Saucepan- To be honest, there's nothing I see in Saucepan to suggest that he is the bear. Though I must suppose some suspicion towards him, as no one can be trusted. But, quite frankly, I'm not too concerned about Saucepan being the bear.

Just doesn't fit, Sauce has been vocal, and attempting to help. The bear is extremely hard to locate right now which gets me thinking One, s/he's hiding in the majority, two s/he's quiet and low key.

So that points to...(and in order)

1. Meneltarmacil
2. Samwise
3. Dancing Spawn

Note: This is just my reasoning, please by all means don't think I'm right, decide for yourself. It's just a possibility I am suggesting we all consider.

[Meneltarmacil]

It wille be harde finding ye Beare, but I can telle you now that I am not a Beare no matter what thou thinkest of me. I am merely another innocente like thee. However, I cannot prove my innocence to thee so my statemente helpeth little. But as for Bearish-looking people, I suggeste we looke at Boromir88. He hath been somewhat involved in ye discussiones, but doth not poste as often as ye others here. Perhaps he trieth to stay under ye radar whilst posting juste enoughe to not be extremely suspecte. He putteth in critical votes for Wolves, but as dancing spawn pointeth oute, this maye be in ye Beare's beste intereste.