Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[The Saucepan Man]

Some interesting thoughts, particularly from Boromir88 and dancing spawn:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Anyway, my plan for finding the bear was the bear is probably in the majority each time ...

Originally Posted by dancing spawn

I agree that the bear might have voted with the majority once, twice or even three times, but four? Voting majorities of a day have always been under strict observation in case there are bandwagoning wolves. Why would a bear want to risk his/her skin by voting suspiciously? I think it would be clever to vote a few times for someone who has almost enough potential to get lynched but avoids the noose at the end of the day.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I would think a bear would be one in the voting for Captain, as only the bear would know that that person wasn't the bear. Unless she wanted to keep the suspected bear alive as long as possible?

I tend to agree with dancing spawn that the Bear is unlikely to have voted with the majority on every Day. I wonder if perhaps the most instructive vote, in this regard, might be that which led to the lynching of CaptainofDespair. After all, CaptainofDespair was a suspected Bear, not a suspected Wolf. He was unlikely to have been a Wolf for his early vote for Mithalwen on Day 1.

So let's try to look at this vote from the Bear's persepctive. He knows that CaptainofDespair is not the Bear and he is probably pretty certain that he is not a Wolf. In fact, it was clear from what CaptainofDespair said before the voting started that, if he was not the Bear, he was most probably the Ranger (as indeed he was). Now, the Ranger cannot offer protection from the Bear's attacks but he can protect against the Wolves' attacks and therefore limit the Night-time exposure to one kill. So the Bear might well have wanted him kept alive. Also, with two Wolves still alive, the Bear would probably have wanted another Wolf to be lynched on that Day. In addition, CaptainofDespair was a Bear suspect and so, as Boromir88 suggested, it was perhaps in the Bear's interests that he stayed alive. Finally, the Bear knew that CaptainofDespair was probably innocent and that therefore those who voted for him might well be under suspicion the next Day.

All of that would tend to suggest that, on Day 2, the Bear would probably have voted to save CaptainofDespair and kill a Wolf. So, of those who are still alive, who did not vote for CaptainofDespair on Day 2? The following:

Durelin
Nonnacedak
LMP
Gurthang

Durelin voted for me. An unlikely vote for a Bear, because I was never under serious suspicion of being a Wolf (she voted for me as a Bear suspect) and, given the way that the discussion was going, a vote for me was unlikely to save CaptainofDespair. Generally, I feel that she has acted un-Bear-like and so don't regard her with any great suspicion.

Nonnacedak voted for a likely Wolf candidate, Gil-Galad, who was in fact a Wolf. As others have noted, he has said little and, while having an uncanny ability to spot Wolves (fellow lyncanthropes?), has added little to the Bear debate. And, again as others have noted, he has always been at pains to defend himself against any accusations.

LMP is the Cobbler. I am now convinced of that.

Gurthang, like Nonnacedak, voted for Gil-Galad on Day 2. But he has been helpful in his contributions and posted at length in a seemingly genuine effort to catch both the Wolves and the Bear. I don't really find him suspicious at the moment.

That, of course, does not excuse anyone else. It remains quite possible that the Bear did vote for CaptainofDespair on Day 2. I just think it more likely that he did not. I agree with Boromir88 that both Meneltarmacil and SamwiseGamgee look suspicious, for their frequent but largely uninformative, posts. Menel more so. I think that Samwise has offered some solid ideas and opinions on occasion. Menel has been more talkative today, but only really to defend himself and accuse Boromir88, against whom I see very little evidence, of being the Bear.

So, my two current main Bear suspects are:

Meneltarmacil and Nonnacedak.