Werewolf IIX - Tra la la lally, here down in the Saga, ha ha!

[Meneltarmacil]

Menel, you didn't answer my question ...

I really didn'te have a lot of leades to go on at that pointe. I had only a fewe minutes lefte before I had to "leave ye village hexagon" and since I was not that suspiciouse of Boromir88, I figured I'd try to vote for someone who stoode a chance of being lynched rather than looking like a hairy beaste and voting suspiciousely or not at all.

[Durelin]

Durelin, the only remaining Villager, other than yourself, that you did not throw some suspicion towards in that one post of yours is SamwiseGamgee.

Oh...I forgot about him... Sorry, Samwise.

Is there any doubt now that you are the Cobbler? I mean, we just have to look at your spectacularly bad (or good, depending upon how we look at it ) voting record with regard to the Wolves.

Now, this is why I wanted to lynch you. Even though I actually still think you might be the bear. Though really I don't care either way. I just want you lynched because you made me lose.

Actually, the wolves lost all by themselves. And there was nothing I could do to stop it. I congratulate you, wolves, for making my life even more miserable! I knew I never should have trusted any canine. And I especially thank Sauciepan Man for his spectacular performance, whether it is sincere innocence or mock. The rest of you are slow on the uptake.

And thus, without further ado...

++Durelin

Who ever told you cats don't wear shoes?!

Shameless EDIT: Saucepan Man is the Hunter, and Boromir88 is the Seer.

[Gurthang]

Interesting. I see two possibilities.

1. Durelin is the Bear and is lying so that we will not kill her.
2. She is the Cobbler and has given us a known innocent.

We now have a choice. We can lynch Durelin to make sure she is not the bear, but that would throw away the advantage of having a known innocent. Or we try to do the multiple lynch and either flush out the bear or lynch it in the proceedings. I think she is the Cobbler. I was suspicious of her towards the beginning(not necassarily of being the cobbler; I'm not as smart as some people. *cough*SosPan*cough*) and I can see that her voting shows that she avoided voting for wolves. Only, since she voted for herself, we can't get a mass lynching, not toDay at least.

Or there is always option three: you could do none of the above and completely ignore my idea like last time I brought it up.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And I especially thank Sauciepan Man for his spectacular performance, whether it is sincere innocence or mock.

And if indeed you are the Cobbler, may I congratulate you on a game well played, despite the lack of support from your Wolf buddies ...

OK, here's my plan.

If you had not picked up on my numerous (and probably far too heavy handed) hints already, I am the Hunter. If anyone else claims to be the Hunter, they are the Bear and will have lost by doing so. The Bear already knows that I am the Hunter, I am sure of it, so there is no harm in me revealing this now.

Durelin has owned up to being the Cobbler. Of course, there is still a outside chance that she is the Bear playing a last, desparate card. But she is certainly not an innocent Villager. So I suggest that we lynch her today. Then, to-Morrow, we will have at least one known innocent (myself or the Seer, possibly both). We organise a mass lynching of everyone - excluding that one known innocent. The Bear will either vote for an innocent who already has a vote (in which case he will have revealed himself, one innocent dies and there will be two innocents left on the last Day to vote for him), he will play along (in which case he dies) or he will refuse to vote (in which case he dies).

The only drawback is if I unwittingly kill the Seer tonight. It may therefore be worth the Seer owning up now. Either s/he or I will then die tonight, but we still have our known innocent tomorrow, because the Bear can only kill once per Night.

But, before we go any further (and certainly before the Seer reveals him/her-self), please can everyone think about my plan and let me know if they can see any drawbacks or loopholes. I don't think there are, but we must be sure before implementing it.

It's drastic, I know, but I think that it will at least guarantee that the Beorning cannot wreak havoc in any other Villages.

Edit: Cross-posted with Gurthang, who is thinking along similar lines.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Gurthang

1. Durelin is the Bear and is lying so that we will not kill her.

I wish! Like I don't expect you bloodthirsty villagers to lynch me either way... Plus I already voted for myself, deary.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I think your idea may be the only way we can do it, Saucepan Man, and I'm going to throw my lot in right away. It's the only way it can be done.

++ Durelin

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Sammy

I think your idea may be the only way we can do it, Saucepan Man, and I'm going to throw my lot in right away. It's the only way it can be done.

*gasps* You're just saying that because I forgot to accuse you!

Lynch Saucepan Man, he's lying about his hunterness, he got the guardian killed... *insert Jedi mind tricks here*

EDIT: Therapists are tasty...

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Ah, sorry for the double. I guess I didn't read SpM's post carefully enough. Yeah, I'm up for it. That plan sounds flawless to me. Only, I'm pretty convinced that Durelin's the Cobbler. Can't we lynch some another people today so we might be done with this sooner? Maybe not. I'll come back later and vote for Durelin, if that's what we have decided then.

[SamwiseGamgee]

I must admit, I was hurt to not be accused by the cobbler! Am I really that boring?

dancing spawn, I think SpM's plan works better, because it leaves us with better options tomorrow. It requires everyone who's innocent to pull in together, but it can definitely be done. I do agree, however, that if the seer can provide a list of innocents s/he should let us know. What do others think?

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Okay, at least this clears something up.

We have 5 villagers whose identity we don't know + SpM + Durelin (if she really isn't the bear in a cobbler's disguise).

Originally Posted by SpM

The only drawback is if I unwittingly kill the Seer tonight. It may therefore be worth the Seer owning up now.

I'd rather keep the Seer around. I think I've spotted the Seer but I'm not sure about that. If the Seer knows one or even two villagers who are innocent, it might be wise to step forth and finish this today. If s/he has been most unlucky, all his/her dream subjects are already dead. Hmm... tricky.

Durelin has voted for herself.
There are 6 votes left. What if everyone votes for him/herself except SpM and probably the Seer if s/he reveals him/herself? If someone doesn't show up and vote, SpM or the Seer can vote for them. That's one shameless way to end this, though.

What if we keep Durelin around and do a double lynching? If the bear isn't among them, there would be (if the Seer reveals him/herself) the bear, Durelin, one gifted and one villager left tomorrow, right? I mean, that's the case if the bear kills the Seer next night. Then the last two villagers vote for themselves. If one of them don't, s/he's the bear and Durelin and the last gifted can save the day. Does this work or am I missing something? This would require some co-operation from Durelin, though. Let's get you to terapy, girl! Life's worth living!

[The Saucepan Man]

Actually, it occured to me on the way back to my hut (ie on the train home) that we can finish this here and now.

Durelin is either the Cobbler (likely) or the Bear (unlikely). She has already voted for herself.

If the Seer reveals him/her-self now, and perhaps identifies one or two others as innocent, we can simply lynch everyone else. (Sorry, I know that sounds harsh, but we don't want the Bear escaping to wreak havoc elsewhere, do we now). This we can do by everyone who is not a known innocent agreeing to vote for one other person who is also not a known innocent, thus:

A (Hunter) - does not vote.
B (Seer) - does not vote.
C (Durelin) - already voted for C
D - votes for E
E - votes for F
F - votes for G
G - votes for D

That assumes that there are only two known innocents. If there are more (because the Seer has identified them), then they don't vote either.

In this situation, the Bear (assuming Durelin is not the Bear) can:

1. vote according to that plan - in which case he dies.

2. vote for a Villager other than the one allocated to him - in which case that Villager dies today, another innocent dies overnight and the Bear is lynched by the remaining innocent Villagers (3 or 4, depending upon whether Durelin survives or not) to-Morrow;

3. vote for himself - in which case he dies; or

4. not vote - in which case he dies and an innocent Villager is saved.

The plan requires that every innocent Villager vote according to the agreed "rota".

Of course, the Bear may declare himself as the Seer. Once the Seer has declared, therefore, we need to wait until every Villager has confirmed that they are not the Seer before we go ahead. If someone else claims to be the Seer, the Bear is clearly one or other of those claiming to be the Seer and we lynch one of them. If he is not the Bear, we lynch the other one to-Morrow.

The same applies with regard to the Hunter role, in the event that you still don't trust me (although looking back through my posts should reveal the clues that I have left).

The only problem with this plan is that, if Durelin is the Bear and the Seer is not able to reveal any other known innocents, then the Cobbler still has an opportunity to put a spanner in the works. I tend to think that Durelin is the Cobbler but, if anyone has any doubts, then we might have to revert to Plan A (see my previous post).

So, what does everyone think?

Edit: Cross-posted with lots of people. Looks like the plan outlined above is out of the window. I'll have to review what everyone has said to catch up ...

[SamwiseGamgee]

It can't work. I already voted for Durelin. Sorry!

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Hey guys (and a girl), unfortunately I'm off to bed now. Whatever you decide, I'm up for it.

[The Saucepan Man]

SamwiseGamgee's vote for Durelin means that she has 2 votes. We can't therefore put Plan B into effect. We could go for a double lynching, but I would rather keep as many people around for to-Morrow as possible - just to make sure. Plan A is probably the better one anyway.

I wonder if I could simply not hunt tonight to avoid any possibility of inadvertently killing the Seer? Moddwen?

Of course, it means I'll probably die to-Night and you'll have to be sure that you trust the declared Seer before orchestrating the mass lynching. Also, if this happens, be sure to vote according to the method I outlined above (C votes for D, D votes for E etc), rather than everyone voting for themselves. It avoids the possibility of the Bear not voting and being free to kill another Night.

Originally Posted by SamwiseGamgee

What do you guys think of the seer dreaming of SpM tonight? It would clear up the possibility of crazy suspicions tomorrow. Or are we comfortable with SpM's innocence? Or perhaps the seer has already dreamed of SpM.

I suspect that the Seer has already dreamed of me. But, either way, the Seer should not waste time dreaming of me. If you want me to point to some of my earlier clues, I shall. But the Seer should dream of someone else - either to pinpoint the Bear or to have another known innocent around to-Morrow.