Werewolf IX: the Saga Owns You and You Know It

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

Mithalwen was the person I almost voted for on Day 2.

I too would have voted for Mithalwen on Day 2 ... had she been playing.

Having reviewed my notes, it has become clear to me that one can analyse 'til the cows come home and still be completley, utterly and hopelessly wrong.

Here are some gems:

On analysing the Night 2 kills:

Glirdan is almost certainly not the Bear (and therefore may be worth keeping around).

Kitanna had voted for Glirdan the previous Day, and I figured that the Bear would not take the risk of killing someone who voted for them when he could kill almost anyone else with little risk. I figured wrong!

On Day 2:

If the Wolves are trying to set up Alcarillo, we need to look at:

Gil-Galad
Azaelia
WaynetheGoblin
Folwren
Glirdan

As I understand it, the Wolves were trying to set up Alcarillo. But working that out sent me in completely the wrong direction!

After learning the Night 3 kills:

The phantom had two dreams: probably SpM and mormegil. Possibly Shelob.

This is about the only thing I got right all game ...

I am now pretty certain that Shelob is innocent and most likely the other Shirriff.

I can't remember why I thought this now. It was something that Shelob said about mormegil or vice versa. I compounded my error by compiling the following list at the outset of Day 3:

*Top suspects: Azaelia, Glirdan, Kath and Holbytlass.
*Level 2 suspects: Folwren, Gil-Galadand Nilpaurion.
*Don’t knows: Cailin, Durelin, WaynetheGoblin.
*Non-Wolves: Meneltarmacil, Shelob, wilwarin.

Now that's just ridiculous. But it was based on my belief (on the basis of what I thought was pretty good evidence) that Azaelia was a Wolf, and also my assumption that Shelob was the other Shirriff. At least when Nilp revealed himself, I was able to move Shelob off the bottom row. In fact, she went straight up to a Level 2 suspect.

Of course, things changed during the course of the Day and, had I not died on Night 4, I would have been looking at Holbytlass, Kath and Shelob very closely. Maybe I would have followed through with my suspicions of Shelob. But I suspect that it's more likely that I would have voted in a similar way to the other innocents on Days 4, 5 and 6.

So you see Wolves. You really didn't need to kill me at all.