Werewolf X: The One Saga to Rule them All!

[the phantom]

I was about to say it'd been quiet for too long, but wow... that's quite a way to break the silence.

[the phantom]

First, Cel and Kuru- earlier you both seemed to believe that Perky had dreamed about Glirdan.

I disagreed and said that Perky dreamed about Azalia.

After reading the quotes I posted, wouldn't you agree?

Even if you don't, I am convinced and so I will be suspicious of anyone who tries to put forward Azalia as a lynching suspect.

Second, let's examine the voting yesterday.

Ang and Gil were both within one vote of getting killed but did not lift a finger to save themselves. Perhaps they weren't around? Perhaps they were wolves trying to play it cool?

What do the rest of you think?

If you ask me, yesterday would've been a nice time for the wolves to vote for each other to set themselves up later in the game. However, since the wolves knew we were dedicated to keeping the totals low and not bandwagon, they probably would have been reluctant to cast an early vote for another wolf.

They also would not have cast a late vote that would likely lead to their fellow wolf's lynching.

An ideal set up would've been either my vote for Cailin or Kuru's vote for Gil.

However, Cailin was proven not to be a wolf, so I was not a wolf voting for a wolf.

That leaves Kuru and Gil as the only likely wolf-wolf vote, because everyone else either voted at a risky time or for a proven innocent.

Now that we're down to Kuru-Gil, let me say that I do not particularly suspect Kuru. Why? Because he has been accusing me.

That may sound funny, but I think if Kuru was a wolf he would be either slightly nice to me or at least indifferent to me.

You see, Kuru has seen me in other WW villages before, and he knows that I am the type who, if attacked during the day, can turn the lynch mob around right onto the person who went after me. A wolf wouldn't want to take that risk.

And the other possibility that could happen if he attacks me is that he succeeds in lynching me. And, when the village finds out that Kuru has led them to lynch a rather experienced innocent, who do you think they'd lynch next? Kuru of course.

So, going after me is likely to end in death no matter if you succeed in lynching me or not, and Kuru has been around long enough to know that and he's smart enough not to put himself in harm's way like that.

Now, this is not an airtight case at all. Kuru is fully capable of putting one over on me, but I think that the probability of my thoughts being right are high enough that I am willing to place him lower than most others on my guilt list.

So, if you'll go back to the point I was making earlier and consider the fact that I think Kuru isn't a wolf, I would guess that no wolf voted for another wolf yesterday, because the Kuru-Gil vote was about the only likely combo.

Now, do you think the wolves went mainly for one candidate, spread all three of their votes out, went 2 and 1- or did one or two sit out?

Thoughts?

[Anguirel]

Anguirel awoke while the whole village was up already, and increasingly keen on the idea of letting him swing. It was most unlucky; on the island where he had been brought up, the sleeping patterns tended to be rather peculiar. He had also-as it happens-missed the voting for innocent reasons, (relatively), attending the theatre in Brethil with an attractive young female bandit. However, he was aware that neither of these arguments would do; particularly in view of his attire.

Anguirel was dressed in rather fine clothes, excepting his bedraggled cloak; it would eventually chime in the villager's minds that they were vestments belong to the three dead villagers. Anguirel had spent the hours after he had got up, it was clear, robbing the houses of the deceased...and once again timed his crime badly...

***

Alright. So you won't accept wholeheartedly my innocent "it was the theatre and my sleeping wot did it" explanation. More power to you. Here's another defence.

I am an inordinately vain fellow. Hence my, er, clothes redistribution. I love to hog the limelight. As one of you villagers, I'm enjoying being a source of comment and query. However, I don't enjoy it to the extent of wanting to be lynched.

Were I a wolf, I swear I would be stirring the pot for all I was worth, forging alliances, casting out accusations and theories, taking precautions for perfect crimes. You would see a lot of me. You would probably, in fact, lynch me, for something tells me my flamboyance wouldn't fit a wolf well...

Now our Seer is gone, we are left to ourselves. We must deduce with what little knowledge we have. Innocents, look to those who voted for you. Then ask yourself why they voted for you. Did another's suggestions stir them to it?

I agree, also, that the non-voters are wrapped deep in the mire of suspicion. But I assure that, were I a wolf, I wouldn't, to put it bluntly, be winning in such a blank, unstylish, unspicy (pace our Seer) manner. I would regard it as cheating, almost...

Right. My suspects are all three of them quiet; but such triumvirates can be most dangerous. They are, in ascending order of suspicion:

Gil-Galad, using moral blackmail of a rather objectionable, martyring kind to avoid the chop

Wayne, as usual very reticent and with little to contribute...little else against him save fickle instinct

Eonwe, the progenitor of last night's tie. Extremely suspicious.

I doubt all three are wolves, but I'm fairly sure some will be. As for last night's voting-I fear it was largely of the villager's own making, very likely with no wolves involved but Eonwe if Eonwe is guilty.

[Lalaith]

Oh great. First we manage to lynch two innocents on the first day, then the wolves get our Seer.

Now that lynch yesterday, caused by double posts: I'm not going to get too suspicious about the instigators (Eonwe and phantom) I've been in a similar position myself and it's jolly awkward when it happens. That doesn't mean I think they're innocent mind you, but I'm not going to be homing in on them just for that.
Yesterday's voting patterns will become more significant when and if we catch a wolf - and if that wolf is among those who was voted for, or voted. At the moment, it doesn't tell us all that much - I think most of us were just following the "spread the votes around" strategy. As for my own vote, it was based as I explained on the fact I felt that Glirdan and Perky seemed to be a bit chummy. Once poor Glirdan was proved innocent by the lynching, my suspicions of Perky were assuaged. As for who Perky dreamed of, it clearly must have been either Glirdan or Azalia. I'm inclined towards Zali myself. It's a big risk, but do we accept her as a known innocent? Having a known innocent would of course be of huge help to the village.

Wayne - I'm not sure if he's so suspicious, maybe he's just confused. And on the subject of which - what on earth is Gil-Galad playing at?

Oh and Kuru: so my posts were "marvels of non-substance", were they? It was the first day, nobody, except poor Perky, knew anything. I think you're just being mean to me because I wouldn't be "nice" to that important friend of yours at the banquet the other night.

[Boromir88]

Now, do you think the wolves went mainly for one candidate, spread all three of their votes out, went 2 and 1- or did one or two sit out?~the phantom, Post 171

I think it's unlikely two sat out and didn't vote, but very possible that one did. As I said, I think if there was only one person who didn't vote in a tie, that person would not be a wolf, because they would most likely understand that immediate suspicion will fall on them for not breaking the tie. I would consider it a too risky move for a wolf to try early on. However, since we had several people not vote, one wolf would be able to hide easier amongst the crowd. Making it more likely that one wolf didn't vote yesterday.

As far as where the other two wolves are hiding, I can't gather from the votes yesterday. I think people's posts today will give us a better clue than yesterday's voting.

[Lalaith]

It's so quiet here, I think there must be very few of us on GMT in this game.
Anyway, as nearly everyone is asleep I've had some time to think and analyze.

Anguirel – Didn’t vote. He hasn’t said or done enough yet, but will probably come forward to vie with Kuru and phantom to take a leadership role. Which is fine if he’s innocent - but he'll need careful watching. Can we trust his excuse for not voting?

Azealia of Willowbottom Didn’t vote. Came late (albeit with good explanation) but has since said next to nothing. I’d be a lot more suspicious of her if I didn’t think Perky probably dreamt of her as an innocent.

Boromir88 – Coincidentally, I’d put Boromir and the two villagers below him, Celuien and Spawn, in the same category. They are not ones to take overt leadership roles, but they are independent thinkers, inclined to be helpful. Generally seems to be thought innocent – which makes me slightly suspicious.

Celuien – has been helpful in many ways but I find her unusually defensive today. Suspicious.

Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant – again, has made some helpful and sensible suggestions, but unlike Celuien seems quite carefree. (Incidentally, our so-called alliance yesterday was nothing more than both of us, coincidentally at the same time, asking people to stop speculating on the identity of the gifted villagers. I don’t think you can read much into that.)

Eonwe – acts the confused newbie. Probably genuinely so, but it would make a good cover. That double post with phantom was unfortunate but understandable. Slightly suspicious.

Gil-Galad – Didn’t vote. He and Wayne both seem very dispirited – in fact Gil is suicidal. I know things aren’t perfect, we’ve lost the seer, but this just seems way over-the-top. Suspicious.

Kitanna - Like Celuien, she seems defensive. Suspicious.

Kuruharan – the most vocal and opinionated of our leadership candidates so far. Says he’d spotted Perky as Seer (as did phantom). Some of his suggestions are good but others seem a bit simplistic for a clever strategist. Watch carefully.

Lalaith – a clever girl who voted for the seer. Very suspicious.

Márcolië Lamen – I’m not getting a handle at all on this speaker of tongues. So, suspicious.

The phantom – Again, a dangerous enemy if he’s not one of us, so another one to watch very carefully. However, his suggestions and strategies have proved reasonably helpful so far.

WaynetheGoblin – again, odd and dispirited. But he doesn’t seem as suspicious as his fellow oddball Gil.

[Celuien]

A rather dramatic gesture from Gil-Galad. Unfortunately, it's not really a defense. But it has accomplished it's intent in making me question his guilt, and Anguirel has tipped me more to thinking that of the two remaining unexcused non-voters, Gil is more likely to be a wolf.

tp - I'll add Zali to my possible list of Seer dreams. I'm unable to find anything to push me more towards Glirdan or her right now since my psychological block and misreading of Perky's list was what initially made me certain that Glirdan was the subject of his dream.