Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[Márcolië Lamen]

Because of our gathering here, I feel it'd be better to double post to explain that I was out learning about training dogs to carry my books for me this morning and unable to attend our meeting for that reason. I wish I'd managed to be here earlier though.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do. He keeps coming up as too out there for me to be a wolf, and one that wolves would vote for but not connect themselves too because of this suspision. Then again, anyone could be trying to bluff.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Perky

Um...actually I wasn't saying that. That's the logic other people are using to try and figure out the wolves.

Um ... I never said that you were. I was referring to arcticstorm.

It seems to me that there are a lot of votes gathering for Perky, and I fully realise that I am one of those who has voiced suspicions of him. But I would remind everyone of the benefits of spreading our votes out, at least in the early stages of voting. Not to the extent that the voting becomes meaningless. But having 6 or 7 who are in danger throughout is helpful, as at least one of those 6 or 7 is likely to be a Wolf. And I like to make these Wolves sweat during voting.

My own suspicions are currently directed mainly towards Perky and arcticstorm, and Eomer less so. But I will need to review everything that has been said and do some major thinking before I cast my vote. Depending on what I come up with and how the voting goes, I may end up voting for someone else entirely.

[Cailín]

A lot to catch up on, while I'm actually in a terrible rush, so forgive me for skipping a few points.

In terms of lynching Perky to gain information, I really have to wonder if thats what the wolves were hoping we would do.

This is what Marcolie said, but others before have said that lynching Perky will give us the most information. Pray, tell me, what do we know if Perky is found innocent? Only that we were all very wrong on Day 1. Should Perky prove to be indeed a wolf, I think the other wolves already gave up on him last night when he was second to be lynched. There's no one really sticking up for him now (except this might be seen as sticking up for) so I'm not really sure what this would tell us. I'm not saying lynching Perky is the worst idea - for all I know, he could be a wolf - but there is no concrete evidence against him, except that he talks a lot of nonsense since the start of Day 1.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I agree with that, which makes either Perky, me, or Sauce, Eomer, or Abercrombie (atleast these are who I think the "louder" mouthed-villagers are) a wolf.

I'm not sure if we can divide the wolves into categories... maybe there's three quiet wolves, maybe three loud ones... Anyone could be a wolf and practically everyone is behaving like they've always been behaving. I'm pretty sure there's at least one wolf in the people you mention here, though.

Originally Posted by SpM

Well I still suspect Eomer, Cailin, but more recently I had been focussing on other strong suspects. It seems rather alarming to me that, in these circumstances, Eomer has chosen to come out with such a blistering attack on me to-Day and that he has seen fit to vote for me without awaiting a response.

Eomer's accusations seemed far too fierce to me and I'm not sure what he's trying to achieve here. I thought about it for some time and I could only come up with one thing. There's no way he would have made himself any less suspicious by saying nothing to my accusations and there's no way he could have deflected them otherwise. And he very well knows that.

He states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous. He would never have attacked SpM were he an innocent. He cannot know whether SpM is a wolf or not (except if he's the Seer of course, which I doubt) and an innocent would never attack another helpful villager so outright if he knew he had to pay for his possible mistake the next day - it's too dangerous to the village to lose two innocents in a row. It is the move of someone desperate - and who would be desperate because of a minor accusation on Day 2 when we're already almost certain who's going to the gallows today?

If SpM is lynched and proven innocent, Eomer dies tomorrow. He knew this when he voted. And yet he did. Is he really thát convinced of SpM's guilt to risk the whole village? Or is he a wolf trying to take two players instead of one down with him?

Make your choice, my beloved fellow villagers. Even though I think neither one of them will be hanged today.

[The Saucepan Man]

Another quick thought on Eomer.

Generally, it seems to me to be a good Wolfish strategy to hang around 'til near the end of voting in case a vote is needed to save a fellow Wolf or condemn a dangerous innocent. But it makes sense in this game to vote first, given the strategic value of a first vote in the event of a tie. I had thought Eomer's early vote to be too bold and risky a move for a Werewolf. But, if the voting is tight (as I hope and expect it will be) and I receive another vote or two, he has managed to put me in quite a dangerous position.

This, taken together with Cailin's thoughts, makes it quite possible that Eomer has given himself the role of sacrificial Wolf and is looking to take as many innocent villagers as possible out with him.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

So Cailín thinks it would be ridiculous for Innocent-Eomer to attack The Saucepan Man? Well, quite frankly m'dear, I think you're being ridiculous when you say that. Because:

1) Eomer is an Innocent Villager.

2) Eomer sees Saucepan Man twisting and attacking pretty much everything I say.

3) Eomer thinks this is wolvish; innocents wouldn't be acting in such a way.

4) Eomer thinks he can help the village catch a wolf.

5) Eomer votes for Saucepan Man.

Just what on Middle-earth is so 'ridiculous' about that? Please let me know, and I'll try to act in a less moronic fashion.

And reasoning for the early vote? I couldn't see when I could get back to the village square to talk with you people. In fact, I'm neglecting some important work right now, so you'll have to excuse me.

Good night. And try substituting 'fierce' with 'passionate' when you talk about me. Thank you.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

So Cailín thinks it would be ridiculous for Innocent-Eomer to attack The Saucepan Man? Well, quite frankly m'dear, I think you're being ridiculous when you say that.

Originally Posted by Myself

He states he would never pick a fight with SpM if he's a wolf. Ridiculous.

Read again, sweetie. I say it's ridiculous you would never pick a fight with SpM if you were a wolf.

Originally Posted by Eomer, earlier this Day

If Eomer were a wolf, he would not be insistent on a quarrel with The Saucepan Man; to act in such a way would be madness

As you more or less say here. Actually, I think you'd be more than mad enough to do that. As a matter of fact, I think you already did. But hey, we each have our own thoughts and toDay, I am fighting a losing battle I believe.

Good night. And try substituting 'fierce' with 'passionate' when you talk about me. Thank you.

Fine. I'm here to please.

---

Articstorm, I'm sorry, but all these xs and zs and everything are far too confusing. Just tell me who you think is guilty?

[mormegil]

The interplay between Eomer and SaucepanMan is indeed becoming very interesting. And SpM's theory of Eomer being a sacrificial wolf is intriguing though possibly misguided. I hope that all we have here is two misguided passionate people who find guilt in each other. Nothing has changed and to help voting come along I will vote

++ARTICSTORM

and would suggest that we keep the voting close between about 4 people or so. 7 seems too many to add any real fear to the wolves.

I would like to give a piece of advice for our dear seer: Please dream wisely. I know that you are but I believe that at times we get so caught up in certain people, ie Eomer and SpM currently that we overlook others and those others end up being the wolves. So dream of somebody that may be somewhere in the middle of you suspect list. You don't need to heed my advice but consider it.

[Alcarillo]

Time for me to vote.

++The Perky Ent

A generally suspicious fellow, he's been on suspect lists for the past two days. If the voting goes mostly between him and Arctic, we could try to figure out who's trying to save whom by the last votes.

[Boromir88]

Mormegil:
Suspected- Perky, arctic
Voted for- Day 1: Perky
Day 2: Arctic

Formendacil:
Suspected- Sauce, Azaelia, Perky
Voted for-Day 1: Marcolie
Day 2: Azaelia

Wilwarin:
Suspected- Perky
Voted for- Day 1: Perky
Day 2: Perky

Saucepan:
Suspected- Perky, arctic, Azaelia, Boromir, Eomer (though less than the rest)
Voted for- Day 1: Perky
Day 2: Perky

Eomer:
Suspected- Sauce
Voted for- Day 1: Azaelia
Day 2: Sauce

Arcticstorm:
Suspected- Alcarillo, Azaelia, Wilwarin, mormegil
Voted for- Day 1: No one
Day 2: Perky

Alcarillo:
Suspected- Perky
Voted for- Day 1: Gil-galad
Day 2: Perky

Abercrombie:
Suspected- Sauce, Wilwa, morm, Cailin
Voted for- Day 1: No one
Day 2: arctic

Marcolie:
Suspected- Perky, arctic, Alcarillo
Voted for- Day 1: arcticstorm
Day 2: Azaelia

Cailin:
Suspected- arctic, Eomer
Voted for- Day 1: arcticstorm
Day 2: Perky

Azaelia:
Suspected- arcticstorm, Perky
Voted for- Day 1: Gil-galad
Day 2:Sauce

I definitely think a wolf was in Perky's lynching. Which means...
Alcarillo
Wilwarin (you forgot her arctic)
Cailin
SpM
arcticstorm

Now I'm strongly suspicious of three people in this group, Alcarillo, Sauce, and arctic. I'm more incline to believe Alcarillo or arctic at this point, over Sauce. (I'm going to change from my first post).

Alcarillo's gotten his hands dirty in the lynching of innocents twice and arctic I've explained earlier. I don't think 3 wolves would all vote the same this early on. It's a very bold double bluff to try to pull off, but it would give them no room to move around or free themselves.

Azaelia and Marcolie seem to follow along with other suspects. Which could mean they are a wolf, are a target for the wolves therefor the ex-cursed, or were innocent villagers convinced by arguments.

I got a bad feeling about Eomer, if you want to know scrounge through posts yesterday and try to find it. I wish to not incriminate anyone.

So, to date:
1) arctic
2) Alcarillo
3) Eomer/Sauce
4) Azaelia/Marcolie

Ok, so who is are possible victim yesterday, I will fill in my thoughts tomorrow.

[Boromir88]

In the meantime, might I ask why you suddenly voted for me out of the blue yester-Day, Boro?

I had voiced suspicions prior. I said I most likely wouldn't vote for you unless you start lynching innocents, but I had a change of mind. I didn't latch on to Eomer, I feel you may be a danger, and still are, but between you, arctic, or Perky yesterday (I remind you yesterday, my thoughts have changed today) I felt you were the most suspicious.

[arcticstorm]

He is basically saying that, if X is a Wolf, then Y is innocent, but if X is innocent, then Z is a Wolf. Who better to know of the guilt and innocence of X, Y and Z than a Wolf, and what better way to point us in the wrong direction when one of them is killed or lynched than this kind of reasoning?

first of all, let me update your post a little I am saying if X is awolf then y is quite possibly innocent, but if x is innocent than z is quite possibly a wolf. There are no guarantees to this, but I just tend to try to follow a more deductive approach using the inductions that others have already stated.
With Azalia

I'd appreciate hearing why you tink I'm the second wolf, Arctic. You didn't really explain yourself.

I have you on the list following Boromir's inductions about a wolf probably voting for Gil.

I am less supicious of Perky right now because he seems too suspicious, like Formendacil yesterday. Right now everyone is suspecting him and he needs an advocate, even if it is not that good of one. Even if he is guilty, what the village needs is to look at everyone through all lenses, and not just focus on a few suspicious behaviors and only focus on those. My induction is that the wolves will be playing on this and are going to allow him to live as long as we do, because the village is supecting him. I am not saying he is innocent, but I am saying at least one, if not two of the wolves, are going to be among the least supicious in the village. They will not beleading the attack on perky, but they will join in, and not near the end either, somewhere in the middle if that is where it ends up.

[Boromir88]

I'm not sure what to make of this opposition against arcticstorm. Either he's fooled me and he's fair in language, but since I find myself agreeing with him right now, I can't vote for him. His theories make sense, and as he's said...

first of all, let me update your post a little I am saying if X is awolf then y is quite possibly innocent, but if x is innocent than z is quite possibly a wolf. There are no guarantees to this, but I just tend to try to follow a more deductive approach using the inductions that others have already stated.

I am less supicious of Perky right now because he seems too suspicious, like Formendacil yesterday.~arcticstorm

I also agree with this.

The interplay between Eomer and SaucepanMan is indeed becoming very interesting. And SpM's theory of Eomer being a sacrificial wolf is intriguing though possibly misguided. I hope that all we have here is two misguided passionate people who find guilt in each other.~mormegil

Or two wolves playing a game with eachother, which is quite scary. Though with Eomer's words and early vote I doubt it as a strategy a wolf would use, but nevertheless something that I wouldn't doubt Sauce and Eomer trying to pull off.

Marcolie's cooled my suspicions, but I said earlier I wanted to hear more from Alcarillo. Nothing's changed and this particularly gets me worried...

I'm here! And I say "Lynch somebody whose death would give us the most information".

I would never propose this strategy, let's lynch someone who we get info out of, even if he's innocent. It may be Alcarillo's strategy, as an innocent, and possibily looking down the road, but this is something I do not concur with or I would not propose unless that person is becoming a burden on the village. Which I do not see Perky as being yet.

I won't vote for Alcarillo today, because one it will throw yet another name out there, and two I don't think it will go anywhere, but I want to hear an answer tomorrow. (If I'm alive).

I'm going to follow Eomer and say...

++Saucepan

He worries me.

[Cailín]

So, currently tis

Saucepan - 2
Arcticstorm - 2
Perky - 2

Boromir88 - this is the second time you vote the same way as Eomer (though not literally). Are you sure you wish to be in league with a suicidal wolf?

[Boromir88]

Boromir88 - this is the second time you vote the same way as Eomer (though not literally). Are you sure you wish to be in league with a suicidal wolf?

Being a simple villager I don't know who's a wolf and who isn't. So, of course I'm always worried about who I'm siding with and who I'm suspecting, at any moment I may be wrong. As I said earlier I have no reason to suspect Eomer as of yet, could be good, or could mean my own death, only time will tell.

Well, I must be off, supper time then I won't be back.

[Azaelia of Willowbottom]

Decisions, decisions. I think I will vote now. I believe that we should keep the number of suspects down as a way to make wolves nervous. So I'll vote for someone already on the table. The person on the voting list that I am least suspicious of is Perky, and it seems like people want to lynch him because of the information it would bring, and not because they are sure he is a wolf. It's just convenient that his death, innocent or not, would tell us something.

Sauce (due to his strong assertions and passionate argument against Eomer) and Arctic (because I think his reasoning is flawed) both send up red flags, but I think Saucy's red flag is a little redder.

++Sauce

because of that paradoxial part of WW: defend yourself and you look suspicious, but you can't just let yourself be lynched, either. It's the way he's going about defending himself that looks suspicious to me. I'm very sorry that I can't give any better explanation than that...it just sends up red flags to me.

edit: cross-posted with Marcolie and Boromir (that is, they posted while I was still working on my reply)

[Márcolië Lamen]

Summary of votes so far

SpM (3)
Boromir
Eomer
Zali

Artic (3)
Abercrombie
mormegil
Perky

Perky (5)
Alcarillo
wilwarin
Cailin
SpM
artic

Azaelia (1)
Marcolie

I'm debating throughing another name into the mix to spread out votes, but am not sure whether or not to yet.


edit: updating votes as people vote

[The Saucepan Man]

Her and SPM seemed a little to chummy for my liking. It seemed to me, that Cailin could do no wrong in SPM's eyes (probably because he realised that she was the seer.)

I figured out that Cailin was most likely to be the Seer on Night 3 as I reviewed the Day 2 proceedings. A number of her comments seemed to indicate that she had dreamed of me and found me to be innocent and that she had dreamed of Eomer and found him to be a Wolf. Both of us were likely candidates for early Seer dreams. So, on Day 3, I was keeping my eye out for further evidence to back this belief up. That came with a further comment from Cailin and, most particularly, Eomer's strong attack on her. I was also fortified in my belief by Boro's indication that he had spotted Cailin's comments. My only fear was that Cailin was a tricksy Wolf pretending to be the Seer. Luckily, that fear was groundless.

I was also quite certain that Cailin had dreamed of Azaelia on Night 3 both because Azaelia, having attracted a lot of suspicion, was a likely dream candidate and because of Cailin's comments about her. So, had I survived to the end, I would not have voted for Azaelia. That said, however, I would most likely have turned on Formendacil. I never strongly suspected Alcarillo, despite the fact that he transgressed most of the "rules" that I posted at the outset.

Abercrombie, I thought that your Hunter declaration was very strange at the time. But it turned out to be a stroke of genius. Had morm's declaration gone unchallenged, we most likely would have lynched wilwa that Day, and so an innocent would have died in any event. But you kept the suspicion on mormegil, meaning that two vocal innocent villagers (morm and me) could be disposed of at a stroke and preventing a known innocent from hanging around and being a thorn in the Wolves' sides (as morm would have been a risky kill).

Finally, although all credit goes to the Wolves for the win, I would just like to point out that the Villagers managed to kill three Wolves, which is pretty good going in comparison with other games. So due credit too to my fellow innocents and the gifteds.

[Cailín]

I was also quite certain that Cailin had dreamed of Azaelia on Night 3 both because Azaelia, having attracted a lot of suspicion, was a likely dream candidate and because of Cailin's comments about her.

It's funny though I instantly regretted having dreamed of Azaelia the moment I sent her name to Holby. It proves that the best strategy for a Seer is not dreaming of the ones who gather the most suspicion during the day (because you can pretty much count on them being innocent anyway and if not, you'll find out soon enough), but rather the people you want to be able to trust.

I still regret I condemned Perky to the gallows - that was my fault indeed -, but my dream about Eomer then proved to be the wiser choice. Though my other candidate for the third dream, Formendacil, was also proven innocent in the end, it would have told me far more than a dream about someone I just wanted to be able to protect, after feeling serious guilty towards Perky.

[Boromir88]

I thought it was interesting that day where Boromir and Formendacil came out and gave a little bit of an arguement to each other and said they were suspicious of each other then both quickly turned on another, I believe Azealia~mormegil

Yea, but then I bought Azaelia's "innocent" outcry, just didn't believe you for some reason. Mostly because I didn't see why a wolf would come out and claim to be the Hunter after the real Hunter did, though now I see why and Abercrombie did wonderful in sucking me in.

When arctic was lynched and found to be a Wolf, I was convinced that the remaining Wolf was Boro.~Sauce

I kind of was thinking along those same lines too. If I was not to die that night, what would I say to convince the villagers I was truly innocent. Basically, I was thinking, if I was a wolf, and I had that much control over how voting would of turned out, I would have ended it that day, and not of wanted to drag it out another day when anything could happen.

But at the end of voting, it was pretty clear to me that, Azaelia was innocent, or atleast I bought it, and if she was a wolf she played it great, Formendacil was innocent, because she just at this point seemed very befuddled, and that Alcarillo was the wolf, because he had been playing very safe in voting lately. I was definitely going after him, but he made the wise choice of killing me then jumping on with Formendacil.

Well played by all our wolves. And if it wasn't for Cailin I probably would have foolishly followed Eomer (which I was doing up until that when she specifically said to me that it wasn't wise to follow a suicidal wolf).