Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[AbercrombieOfRohan]

So they got the cursed? Oh dear...

I think Wilwa's hit on something good with trying to rationalize who the wolves would've killed last night.

At the end of the day yesterday, people who were looking suspicious were (and not just on my suspicious list, on everyone's):

Azaelia
Boromir
Marcolie
Wilwarin
Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Eomer

So what does this tell us? This is like half the village.

I do think though, that they would've tried to keep a few of these people around, which means we can cross them off as the cursed. (Keep in mind I'm just talking about the newest addition to the wolf family, any of these people might very well be wolves.)

Azaelia and Wilwarin are both very similar players in my mind. They are both also very suspicious, what with their frequent posts and infrequent reasoning. I can pretty much write them off as not being the cursed, they seem far too likely for wolf fodder.

The same goes for Marcolie, she barely posted at all yesterday, which is sure to be suspicious and wolves would not want to kill her off.

So I'm left with Boromir, Saucepan Man, Mormegil and Eomer. And of these four, it seems to me the two most likely candidates for wolvery are Saucepan Man and Mormegil.

They are both loud and smart; they're both players that, if killed the wolves would benefit from it. The only other person that I can include in this category is Cailin, who from what I saw yesterday, is a capable player and if she's been consistently mentioning names of wolves, probably would have been killed.

So of the possibilities for Cursed, I think these three are the ones we should focus on:
Saucepan Man
Mormegil
Cailin.

I've not the time to look at who might be the three old wolves, but tomorrow I'll return.

crossposted with SPM, Alcarillo

[The Saucepan Man]

The more I think about this, the more I think that this suggestion of looking for the "ex-Cursed" is a very bad idea. It diverts us away from looking for the original three Wolves and presents the Wolves with a perfect opportunity to lead us into lynching yet another innocent. And even if we were to find the fourth Wolf, it would tell us little if anything about the identity of the original three Wolves, because that person will have been thinking and voting like an innocent up 'til now. If, on the other hand, we catch one of the original three, there is likely to be some kind of a trail that we can follow to the other two.

I suspect that there is a Wolfish plot going on here to divert us away from finding the original three.

And if that makes you think that I am the fourth Wolf, well you are wrong, but I am willing to take that risk in order to offer what I consider to be good counsel.

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

The more I think about this, the more I think that this suggestion of looking for the "ex-Cursed" is a very bad idea. It diverts us away from looking for the original three Wolves and presents the Wolves with a perfect opportunity to lead us into lynching yet another innocent. And even if we were to find the fourth Wolf, it would tell us little if anything about the identity of the original three Wolves, because that person will have been thinking and voting like an innocent up 'til now. If, on the other hand, we catch one of the original three, there is likely to be some kind of a trail that we can follow to the other two.

On the flip side of the coin, however, if we find the Cursed One by deducing who would likely have been taken yesterday, we would learn WHY they were taken, and thus WHO was likely to have taken them.

After all, we can learn the pattern of the murderers by the crimes they commit. The attacking of the Cursed One is merely the third murder, botched.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

On the flip side of the coin, however, if we find the Cursed One by deducing who would likely have been taken yesterday, we would learn WHY they were taken, and thus WHO was likely to have taken them.

Well, think what you will. But I fail to see why identifying the intended victim should tell us a great deal about the identities of the attempted murderers. After all, the Wolves were acting on the basis that their "victim" would be revealed and they would therefore have targetted someone who would not point too much suspicion towards them.

After a Day or two, however, there will be the beginnings of a trail leading from the fourth Wolf to the others, since they will have been working together for some time.

I still say that we focus on the original three, at least for to-Day.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

But I fail to see why identifying the intended victim should tell us a great deal about the identities of the attempted murderers. After all, the Wolves were acting on the basis that their "victim" would be revealed and they would therefore have targetted someone who would not point too much suspicion towards them.

I think we are forgetting that the wolves main target would be the seer. So if we could think who they would think the seer is then we would know who that person suspected and what made the wolves kille him/her. The major problem with this whole thing though is we won't know, if we kill a wolf, whether of not they were the fourth wolf. But in my thinking Cailin is most likely candidate for the fourth wolf. She seemed a lot like Shelob to me.

I still say that we focus on the original three, at least for to-Day.

considering all the difficulties I agree.

I will try and review everything said and post more later.

[mormegil]

I don't really have much time to explain reasoning here, after spending hours reading through all that has been said, but I think I have a decent top 5 suspect list. This is in no particular order.

1. Eomer
2. Alcarillo
3. Azaelia
4. Saucepan Man
5. Marcolie

I wouldn't be surprised if 3 wolves were in that list. But now I need to decide which one to vote for.

Much of the reason I suspect them has already been stated so I won't repeat that but on SpM onpost 165 he is rather emphatic in his assertion that he is innocent. I believe I counted at least 4 times his expression that he is innocent, a very uncharacteristic thing for SpM to do. This makes me view him as the fourth wolf. I will review what has been said when I wake up (RL) and take into consideration all of it.

[Cailín]

Uh oh. The Cursed has been found. The odds are slowly turning against us, out of 12 players, there are now 4 wolves among us.

I was most relieved to see I had survived the night, because I figured I’d be an easy kill, since I was not really high on anyone’s suspect list. But the wolves must have gone for someone else. Now, we can spend hours debating on who this might have been (likely candidates being Boro, SpM, Formendacil or Mormegil, assuming they were innocent before) but we will - especially since a third of us are now wolfish, probably not figure it out and end up lynching a helpful innocent.

So, let’s get back to the original wolves...

Mormegil - I’m not sure about him. I’m inclined to trust him for now, since I agree with most of what he has been saying toDay and yesterDay. It is true, he voted for Perky on day one and still suspected him strongly the next day, but he’s really not the only one who has a voting record against him.

Formendacil - Far too quiet to trust.

Wilwarin - I think Wilwa might be one of our wolves here. She attracted some suspicion during the last few days, but never quite enough to get her in any real danger. When we started suspecting her, it was together with the other quiet villager Azaelia, but now Azaelia is the only one still really on our radar. It’s hard to explain, but if Azaelia is innocent, I think Wilwarin is definitely someone to look at.

Saucepan Man - I trusted him yesterDay (which is pretty obvious when you look at the way I voted) and still am pretty much convinced he at least wasn’t an original wolf.

Eomer - He’s very likely getting my vote today. I just don’t trust him. His behavior on Day 1, which I brought up yesterday, he only deflected by attacking SpM in a most passionate way. If you look closer at the evidence we have against him... And then look closer at how little suspicion he has attracted even despite that... That is the mark of a wolf, and a clever one.

Arcticstorm - I trust arcticstorm far more than yesterDay, but I don’t think he’s entirely cleared just yet. I very much hope he turns out to be a wolf, so we weren’t wrong about everything. On the other hand, he voted for Perky, following me, more or less because I asked him to (yeah, that was an oops), which would be risking thing to do if he were a wolf indeed.

Alcarillo - Might be wolfish. I really dislike quiet people, since I am unable to conjure up any evidence against them

AbercrombieofRohan - Someone who has not attracted much suspicion yet, but we should not forget about. She did not vote the first day, but claimed she would have voted Perky (not really such a great excuse now, huh?) and steadily votes for Perky the next day.

Marcolie - I said I’d be keeping an eye on you, but I failed miserably. I seriously distrust you now, especially since you voted so strangely yesterday. Certainly, Azaelia was on most people’s suspect list by then, especially after Perky bravely decided to reveal himself, but it’s a very easy vote, for you are not suffering from post-Day 2 trauma right now, as most of us secretly are.

Azaelia - I do not think she’s a wolf. She has been attracting suspicion since Day 1, yesterDay at the end of voting time, everybody suddenly believed her to be furry and evil. Sure, she has a little explaining to do, but I’m one of those crazy ones who think that the more suspicion people attract from the beginning, the more likely they are innocents.

Boromir - I had him very high on my suspect list for a while, because he seemed mostly to be following Eomer, who everyone knows I distrust. His posts today, however, seem more helpful and far more innocent. I think he might be the Cursed. He still may be a wolf. But I am very ready to admit most of the negative vibes I get from him are due to his inappropriate avatar ^^

My suspect list, as of now:

1) Eomer
2) Marcolie / AbercrombieofRohan
3) Wilwa / Boromir
4) Formendacil

*waiting for everyone to wake up*