Welcome to Tol-in-Gauroth XI 'Fall of the Fall'

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

On the other hand, if you are a Wolf, and you survive, the logical choice tonight to take down would be AoR- whom you know is a hunter, and who would likely take you down with her.

Formen, I seriously doubt that, if the Hunter lives to see the Night, the Wolves will attack him/her, for they are likely to lose one of their number if they do. They will go for an innocent who can do them no harm.

OK. Here's my thinking.

If we lynch either mormegil or Abercrombie and get it right, we will be down one Wolf and one innocent (the Wolves' over-Night kill) to-Morrow morning. Count: 6-2

If we lynch either mormegil or Abercrombie and get it wrong, we will be down 1 innocent (the Hunter) and 1 Wolf to-Day and we will lose a further innocent over-Night. Count: 5-2

If we lynch wilwa and she is a Wolf, to-Morrow will find us down 1 Wolf and 1 innocent. Count: 6-2.

But, if we lynch wilwa and she turns out to be innocent (which is still a possibility in mind, albeit unlikely), we will be down 2 innocents by to-Morrow. Count: 5-3

I would prefer the certainty of killing a Wolf to-Day and then see where we are to-Morrow (although it is quite possible that I will not be here). So my preference would be to vote for either mormegil or Abercrombie. Probably morm, on the basis of the evidence to date, but I have not yet made my final decision.