Aragorn's Reunited Empire: Just a paper dream?

[Lush]

I'm not entirely sure that Aragorn's new kingdom exists "on paper alone," but I would like to point out that it seems obvious that it is headed for great change, the dissolution of memories and tales, a modernization of sorts, perhaps.

Otherwise, why is Queen Arwen completely forgotten?

I feel that the quote "...and all the days of her life are utterly forgotten by men that come after..." hints at an erosion of past values and traditions in the kingdom, which makes sense politically.

[Anguirel]

I feel that an almost more interesting question would be: how did Elessar's Empire decline and decay?

As it stands at the end of the book, Elessar is pretty uncontested, especially thanks to his local alliances; in the area of Gondor, Rohan, Aglarond, and Ithilien are all ruled and/or settled by personal friends; further north Greenwood, Dale and Erebor are unlikely to cause trouble; and in the area of Arnor, Celeborn still holds Imladris and the Dunedain are at Aragorn's command, with their fortress of the Angle.

The questions I would like to ask would be, for instance, how soon would it take for Arnor and Gondor to split into two kingdoms again? It's clearly impracticable to rule both, especially as the population increases. Once Elessar's line is split, so the loyalties of Elessar's historic allies would split, and North/South conflict might be possible.

If Florence is truly the site of Minas Tirith, then Gondor must have been wracked by civil war indeed to become anything like fractious Italy...

Also, would the Principality of Ithilien eventually become independent in practice? Likewise the Principality of Dol Amroth. Would a future ruler of Gondor endeavour to assert claims over Rohan? Would Rohan be content to remain a vassal? Etc etc.

As for the Haradrim, they can't be anything like wiped out. Harad isn't really a realm, it's anything South and unknown. But they're probably occupied with their own affairs after so heavy a defeat, at will be Easterlings and Khandings, for the moment...enabling Elessar to take the offensive. Will he make the same mistakes as earlier Gondorian rulers of the South did? I do hope so!

[Elladan and Elrohir]

I am in total favor of the baby boom theory; in fact, I've held it for a long time while not calling it by that name. After all, as others have pointed out, Gondor had many allies and few enemies after WotR, and duh, Sauron's gone, which certainly helps.

I think there is evidence of this in the book. After all, it says something along the lines of, Minas Tirith became greater and more beautiful than it had ever been, even in the days of Elendil. So obviously there must have been a boom of some kind. Probably, a grace period granted by the Valar, an echo of Numenor in the Second Age.

[Selmo]

We know that the population of The Shire increased rapidly after the War. leading to its expansion westwards into the Tower Hills. There's no reason to think that the same thing would not happen in the rest of Middle Earth.

Within Aragorn's lifetime, Gondor could recover much of its former strength. I don't think that the Kingdoms in the East would be much of a treat to Gondor. Many of their leaders died in the War, the people would no longer have a common purpose, there would be power struggles between new aspiring leaders and it would be a very long time before any one leader could become stong enough to command great armies. Without Sauron's promptings, would they have any incentive to risk another western adventure?

The powerbase for Aragon and his line in the Southern Kingdom would be secure for many generations.

Is the United Kingdom of Gondor and Eriador just a paper dream? No.
There hasn't been a central government in the North for a thousand years but the idea of the Kingdom has remained alive in the hearts and minds of the Dunadain in their hidden valleys, in the tales the Hobbits in The Shire and even among the people of Bree. With the onset of peace and a rapidly increasing populaton, these groups, together with other smaller settlements of hobbits and men that Tolkien only hinted at, could be pulled together into a Kingdom, further strengthened by immigrants from Gondor.

How long would the United Kingdom last? Not for ever.
After the War of the Last Alliance there was a time of peace and expansion but, because of the distance between the two, there was a need for sepparate administrations in Gondor and Eriador . Gradually, the links between the North and the South disolved, not through the actions of external forces but simply because of the difficulties of communication. The same thing would happen again.

[Tuor of Gondolin]

Some comments from above
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"The orcs no longer existed as rational creatures."
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Is there some "canon" stating this. Since the orcs (derived from corrupted elves and/or men) were rational creatures, why would they no longer exist. After all,
they survived past decimations, from the First through the Third Ages.

Also, while it's a grey area, I don't think Rohan can be considered a
vassal state, but more an equal ally (see Aragorn's comments to Eomer after his coronation).

Another strength to Gondor in the Third Age would be a reoccupied Moria.
And indications in LOTR are that at least South Gondor was fairly heavily
populated before and during the War of the Ring. Faramir might have had
his hands full moderating a land rush into Ithilien (imagine the adjudications
over claims to ancestors lands abandoned earlier versus squattors in the land).

If Karen V's Atlas of Middle-earth is accurate, there would be significant lands (and presumably peoples) for disgruntled Easterlings to draw on, and eventually ally with resurgent orcs against (as observed above) a
dangerously overextended empire (especially in Arnor borderlands).

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Tuor of Gondolin

"The orcs no longer existed as rational creatures."
------------------------
Is there some "canon" stating this. Since the orcs (derived from corrupted elves and/or men) were rational creatures, why would they no longer exist. After all,
they survived past decimations, from the First through the Third Ages.

It's probably fairer to say that they were no longer "united" (to the extent that Orcs ever can be united) under single leaders save, presumably, at tribal level.

[Formendacil]

Another thing to note is that Aragorn was king for over 100 years. That's an entire century during which his kingdom was more or less at peace internally. All the indications were that throughout Elessar's reign, at least, Gondor suffered no civil war, no major famines, plagues, or invasions.

As regards the baby boom effect then, it could easily have been a several generation baby boom. There is certainly room for four, or five generations to be born in the span of Elessar's reign. So if the population doubled (to pick a number), thus having four children for every two adults, then the population of the United Kingdom would have been 16-32 times as much at the onset of Eldarion's reign than at the beginning of his father's.

With that sort of a population boom in Gondor, you could easily rebuild the dwindling population of that land, as well as send plenty of settlers north to the re-established kingdom of Arnor.