TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Encaitare · 10-18-2005, 01:44 PM

Greetings, all. It is long since we have all assembled together... how are we all? Holding up well? It is indeed a tragedy; Lord Phantom was a good man.

I have been taking note of all your responses and ideas, and here is what I have to say thus far:

Anguirel! How very noble of you to offer your life to the village. Yet as selfless an act as it may be, it would be to little avail. We would, if we lynched you, have fourteen to choose from (and thirteen by the time the next DAY begins). Even though the odds of finding a wolf are then better, it is likely that an innocent will be lynched toDay anyway. That, unfortunately, is just how the odds run. If we vote, then we will at least have a 1 in 5 chance of getting a wolf.

With his offer in mind, I am inclined to believe that Anguirel is either an ordo with the best interests of the village in mind, or a bluffing wolf who assumed people would respond with the reasoning I gave above.

Mormegil's plan confuses me slightly. Randomly pick one of our fellows to lynch? It seems a little bit fishy, and probably would not be that effective for seeing who is a wolf and who is not. It is clear some of us have already formed opinions and theories about each other, no matter how full of holes they may appear. A truly random vote would be impossible, especially now that Anguirel has already voted.

I must away, but I shall return to this place later in the evening to read all else you have to say and to cast my vote.

EDIT: Cross-posted with Mister Underhill, Formendacil, and Fea.

mormegil · 10-18-2005, 01:51 PM

I'm starting to think that I will not follow my own plan but the point is that while all votes from innocents are truly random those from wolves will most likely not be and therefore easier to track. But the likelihood of the plan succeeding isn't great but it's a plan nonetheless.

Eomer of the Rohirrim · 10-18-2005, 02:13 PM

Hoom, hroom, hrm. Hmm...

Hark! We villagers must be realistic and we must be brave; let us face Death head on! Some of us are going to die; we have to accept this. At least in a couple of Days time the village should be better off – if not in numbers then at least in ideas.

But I don't give too much thought to random voting. Rest assured, whomsoever gets my vote will have done something to irk me. Fair, treacherous wolves, eh? The scunners!

I will also have to vote very early. But first, I'm going to....fish? Is there a loch around here?

10-18-2005, 01:51 PM	#2
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	I'm starting to think that I will not follow my own plan but the point is that while all votes from innocents are truly random those from wolves will most likely not be and therefore easier to track. But the likelihood of the plan succeeding isn't great but it's a plan nonetheless. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

10-18-2005, 02:13 PM	#3
Eomer of the Rohirrim Auspicious Wraith Join Date: May 2002 Location: The Netherlands Posts: 4,859	Hoom, hroom, hrm. Hmm... Hark! We villagers must be realistic and we must be brave; let us face Death head on! Some of us are going to die; we have to accept this. At least in a couple of Days time the village should be better off – if not in numbers then at least in ideas. But I don't give too much thought to random voting. Rest assured, whomsoever gets my vote will have done something to irk me. Fair, treacherous wolves, eh? The scunners! I will also have to vote very early. But first, I'm going to....fish? Is there a loch around here? __________________ Los Ingobernables de Harlond

10-18-2005, 01:44 PM	#1
Encaitare Bittersweet Symphony Join Date: Jul 2004 Location: On the jolly starship Enterprise Posts: 1,814	Greetings, all. It is long since we have all assembled together... how are we all? Holding up well? It is indeed a tragedy; Lord Phantom was a good man. I have been taking note of all your responses and ideas, and here is what I have to say thus far: Anguirel! How very noble of you to offer your life to the village. Yet as selfless an act as it may be, it would be to little avail. We would, if we lynched you, have fourteen to choose from (and thirteen by the time the next DAY begins). Even though the odds of finding a wolf are then better, it is likely that an innocent will be lynched toDay anyway. That, unfortunately, is just how the odds run. If we vote, then we will at least have a 1 in 5 chance of getting a wolf. With his offer in mind, I am inclined to believe that Anguirel is either an ordo with the best interests of the village in mind, or a bluffing wolf who assumed people would respond with the reasoning I gave above. Mormegil's plan confuses me slightly. Randomly pick one of our fellows to lynch? It seems a little bit fishy, and probably would not be that effective for seeing who is a wolf and who is not. It is clear some of us have already formed opinions and theories about each other, no matter how full of holes they may appear. A truly random vote would be impossible, especially now that Anguirel has already voted. I must away, but I shall return to this place later in the evening to read all else you have to say and to cast my vote. EDIT: Cross-posted with Mister Underhill, Formendacil, and Fea.