TOL-IN-GAURHOTH XII, Erbar Telamarth

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

And as far as voting people off randomly goes, I'm all for the anti-LMP bandwaggon. Not because I think him dangerous, or a Werewolf (although there IS a 3/14 chance...), but because his personal life is as foul as my job.

Well, Formendacil, if you don't think I'm dangerous or a werewolf, then your vote for me is/was (still catching up) no better than Esty's newbie vote for a so far silent one. My personal life is not nearly the threat to the village that three werewolves pose. For shame!

Okay, now for my official Day One suspect list:

Boromir
Mister Underhill
Feanor

Boromir is sounding like a werewolf who, knowing I'm not one, is trying to set me up with a couple other dupes that he and his evil croneys are getting ready to "off".

Mister Underhill is playing way too coy for my liking.

Feanor has been a bit wild after hours, if you take my meaning. Also, the fact that she's picked me to start heaping abuse upon, is not to my liking. If ever someone were to play the werewolf boldly, it would be this Feanor, quite capable of the bluff, double bluff, and bait-and-switch bluff (which I can't even possibly explain but you can bet Feanor would do it).

[Boromir88]

Boromir is sounding like a werewolf who, knowing I'm not one, is trying to set me up with a couple other dupes that he and his evil croneys are getting ready to "off".

Funny barkeep, I can say the same for you right now.

He sees that the village is in a mess, and tries to shift blame onto Fea and lmp for their 'back-and-forth' exchange.

Actually, I think my accusations are a benefit to the village. Or atleast they have been to me, gets me to see how people respond and what not. So, whilst my accusations be totally random, and unlogical, there's a purpose to them, or atleast they serve me a purpose. I hope I don't need to say this in more layman terms.

Again, despite Eomer's vote for me, as of right now he seems fairly innocent. Again foolish for following a foolish person. What is it that's always said, who's more foolish, the fool or the one who follows him? So I guess this makes Eomer more foolish but not a wolf.

Cailin, vote for Eomer just seems totally out of the blue, I guess she did Anguirel's strategy of the straw trick. Which is the dumbest way to vote, but not a wolf.

Anguirel, I've explained, foolish, and a bloody noble, but not a wolf.

Lhuna and Shelob, want to hear from these two. But, right now willing to let them slide, I'm sure there's an explanation for there absense. And think of it this way, if they don't talk tomorrow they're dead anyway.

Estelyn just seems totally lost at this point. This isn't wolfishness, just one getting a grasp of how these wolves roll.

Firefoot and Mr. Underhill I need to hear more from and I would like to before we send them to the gallows.

tgwbs' early vote clears him from a wolf atleast for this day, despite how flawed his strategy is.

lmp, realizing that votes are tied now between myself and Shelob suddenly suspects me, and could probably easily get me hanged since I'm not very well liked here.

Feanor, as I said the gibberish and voluptuous connotation between lmp and herself looks like a ploy designed by the wolves. For if I'm not mistaken the wolves can now PM during the day to discuss strategy?

Formendacil, because of him wanting to hang someone who is "immoral."

With all this being said, I think those who have voted already...
Anguirel
Cailin
Eomer
Estelyn
tgwbs

Are not wolves. With wolves being able to now discuss day and night, I think we can expect them to hange around later and let voting unfold to devise their strategies.

So, I'll probably be on again, but there's a possibility I won't and I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

[Boromir88]

I realize I cross-posted with Firefoot, and I find the post atleast was written with good intentions.

Also I realized I forgot to mention Encaitare, so insert her name in place of Firefoot's in my previous post. She's another quiet one.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

With all this being said, I think those who have voted already...
Anguirel
Cailin
Eomer
Estelyn
tgwbs

Are not wolves. With wolves being able to now discuss day and night, I think we can expect them to hange around later and let voting unfold to devise their strategies.

I think that one could well be a wolf. It would make sense for the wolves to get one vote early and see how it takes so they don't all have to wait till the end. I find you blanket statement far to encompassing to be true. I don't find you overly suspicious based on this but I simply don't agree with you.

[Shelob]

::a quick out of game note--There is a reason for my absense, three actually 1. school, 2. chauffeur duty was thrust upon me 3. I started feeling really sick. For such reaons expect little more from me toDAY (unless, as stated later, I see myself accruing most the votes). Unless I'm really sick expect more on following days though...we now return you to your game::

1. Firefoot, I understand you accusing me... I am somewhat low on the social order of things, but I get by. I have neither need nor desire to rise above myself, esp. now I know that there are some few lower than I.

2. Estelyn Telcontar and TGWBS, voting for the silent one eh? A thousand sarcastic thanks...I should be wary of you though, voting for those who have not spoken is safe; you don't need a reason beyond their silence, they don't have a chance to defend themselves until it's too late, the vote is overlooked on later days as it gained nothing. But then again, nothing gambled nothing lost, eh? It seems to me that vote in such a way is to hide in brightest day...though, if it is then only one of you is likely guilty, for two of three wolves to vote so would all but be insanity.

3. Mormegil, wolves will likely try to save themselves whenever possible. However, should doing so risk another of their kin it is the good of the pack they'll look out for. We should remember that when we've voting records to consider. A wolf who refuses to save themself is likely saving their fellows, and through the lack of trail we may be led to the remaining beasts.

4. Current suspicions based on a somewhat rushed reading:
>Anguirel: Seems to say much without actually saying much. Post tone has something in it to suggest wolf-ish-ness. He seems (pst. 68) to be making light of the situation. HOWEVER, given that a wolf would either have to be dumb as a post or brilliant beyond all belief to pull off acting this way from the first day I'm inclined to trust that Anguirel is innocent...for now.
>TGWBS: His vote for me asside, his post (67) in which he speaks almost lightly of our situation (overdramatic "Alas, Death!", and his "weredwarf" comment) seem too, well, unconcerned for an innocent. (cf. Anguirel, though should one proove lycanthopic it would be my bet the other wasn't)

4a. That's not all, but as mentioned before I'm feeling sick...I can't actually remember who else I suspected...

5. A quick comment on likely werewolf strategies:

>Werewolves will vote so as to achieve one of four things: (A) to save themselves (B) to save another of their pack (C) to doom an innocent (D) to begin an innocents descent to doom. Because of such smart wolves can all but avoid detection, double bluff you see. An early enough vote can achieve D without actually seeming to have had a reason beyond innocent naivity. Votes to serve A and C are always looked on as suspicious, so most wolves will try to avoid voting that way unless there are others more likely to draw attention than themselves. as for B votes, their hard to spot until we've got at least one wolf down, with knowledge of who was trying to save them or of whom they tried to save it's easier to find and track votes of this sort

>Werewolves will likely kill people who aren't really gathering a lot of suspicion. Any innocent (and remember, the wolves know who are innocent) drawing enough attention away from the real wolves is worth keeping around, all the moreso if said innocent is also hitting close to home. Wolves will keep such a person around because the death of that innocent (whether by noose or by fang) will only take out a shield between the wolves and the gallows.

>Werewolves will kill so as to direct the voting away from their "class". By "class" I mean volume group, for example I would be in the "quiet" class whereas Anguirel would likely fit the "loud" class. To me there are three general classes, the Quiet, the Loud, and the Middle. Quiet wolves will try to kill in loud so as to rile up the other Loud villagers, Loud villagers will tend to accuse other Louds or those talking but not talking enough (Middle) thus drawing attention (and votes) away from the Quiet group. There comes a point for Quiet wolves though when killing Loud people becomes too dangerous, it moves the wolves up through the ranks of the Middle putting them more in the Loud's spotlights. Middle wolves will likely take out other Middles, this leaves Louds to accuse each other and Quiets for the wolves to shift blame to. Loud wolves, can likely kill whomever they please, since Louds get (or take) the most air time they are in the best positions to manipulate during the day as well as with their kills, thus Loud kills will likely be well thought out so as to appear like Middle or Quiet kills. If their pack is mixed wolves have to give it far more thought...to hide one of their member will require putting forward another

>During the day wolves will have to try and remain within their class, sudden changes (as with sudden movements) draw unwanted eyes. This means that if a non-Loud wolf is under pressure they can't do much to defend themselves. Rants are nice and even innocents may feel the need to vent their anger, but they look wolfish. If we all do our best to keep sudden long rants out of our discussions and try to defend ourselves with evidence presented from the game it makes it that much harder for wolves to hide their guilt. One can only gilt over guilt for so long.

>Since their main goal is to remain undetected wolves need to consider double, tripple and even riskier bluffs...The easiest time to do this would be this NIGHT. The right kill now and everyone will have their minds set in the wrong tracks. If their kill is a bluff and we go for it we've handed them a kill and gained all but nothing. If their kill is a bluff and we don't go for it those the bluff cast suspicion on will survive and we'll be left with unknown, untrustable elements gumming up the works. If it's not a bluff we'll certainly take it as one and either of the before described situations shall apply.

6. Having said all that, I fully expect to be alive tomorrow. Right now I'm likely gathering enough suspicion to detract from the wolves, so they won't kill me. This would tend to suggest that I'll draw even more suspicion tomorrow and be stand a good chance of being lynched then. However, there's enough of a chance that I could also be a thorn in the wolves side, this being the case they'd want me killed...Since killing me in the night would detract from their list of shields tomorrow it's more than likely that one wolf (at least) would support my lynching upon the morrow. That way they get two kills for the price of one, a NIGHT kill where they can send suspicion where they please and my DAY death where they'd thin our innocent ranks. Furthermore, should this be the case, it's likely that one wolf (at least) shall defend me...not enough to really be connected to me, but enough to keep me around another DAY, the longer I remain an unknown, untrustable element the better off for them.

7. With 6 in mind I suggest you lynch me now, you'll do no worse than you likely could on the first day anyway, you'll remove a potentially dangerous element from tomorrow's proceedings and (in my death) you'll see my words clearly for what they are, an attempt to help. Should I see myself getting a good majority of votes I'll wrack my mind for any further help and post it.

With that I think I'll vote

++Anguirel

mostly because of my assorted and disconnected suspcicions he stands out the most.

Until Then.

[Mister Underhill]

We humble stone-cutters need to work, even with the curse of the werewolves hanging over our heads. But I've done my best to keep up. Here are my observations:

Why would Boromir88 be so brash and abrasive, knowing that the mob is hungry and fearful and the rope is near?

Why would Anguirel be so quick to offer a neck? If he truly is innocent, his death gains us nothing except to draw the wolves one step nearer to victory, as littlemanpoet has spoken truly. He is either a fool or a wolf.

On the other hand, lmp talks much but says little. I'm not sure I'm buying this little back-and-forth thing he's got going with Feanor, either. Their banter has more bark than bite, and though they seem to want to project an antagonism between themselves, they've both shied from real accusations of the other until called out by Boromir88.

Of course the quiet ones are also suspects, but I think they're less likely to be wolves than the vocal ones. Wolves wouldn't want to draw such obvious and sudden suspicion on themselves.

The most obviously innocent villagers are myself and Esty... we've never been in a werewolf-afflicted village. So if anyone needs to hear me say it -- I am innocent.

[the guy who be short]

Firstly, I have come under fire for voting for Shelob (nothing personal). Voting for a silent person makes sense in that it eliminates a potential wild card in the future. The first Day almost always results in an innocent dying anyway, so it's a good strategy.

Now, "something of substance."

Shelob - 2 (Esty 2, TGWBS 3)
Eomer - 1 (Cailin 4)
Boromir - 3 (Anguirel 1, Eomer 5, Feanor 14)
Formendacil - 1 (Boromir 6)
Mr. Underhill - 1 (Formendacil 7)
Anguirel - 4 (Shelob 8, Encaitarë 12, Mister Underhill 13, Lhuna 15)
Cailin - 3 (Mormegil 9, Firefoot 10, LMP 11)

Mormegil, Firefoot and LMP are now certain innocents. Nobody would vote for a fellow wolf when the votes were so close. Unfortunately, this means they will certainly be dying in the Night - goodbye, fellows. At least the Ranger has a one in three chance of saving one.

After Cailin got her third vote, Enca and Mr U both voted for Ang in succession. However, Boromir and Shelob already had two votes at this point, so it would have made more sense, if Enca were a wolf, for her to vote for one of these. Enca therefore makes my innocent list, Mr U makes my wolf list.

At the time of Feanor's vote, Ang and Cailin were tied. A wolf would have voted Ang. Fea therefore appears innocent. However, she could have counted on somebody breaking the tied afterwards, as voting for Ang would make her look suspicious afterwards.

Lhuna now appears quite wolfy, though her vote could just be down to chance.

Conclusion:

Innocents:
Mormegil
Firefoot
LMP
Enca
Fea?

Wolves:
Mr U
Lhuna?

[the guy who be short]

I'm a little wary of Firefoot, because of her general statements, but find many (including myself) guilty of the same thing.

Reinforced my Firefoot innocence theory.

Lhuna and Shelob have been very silent, but I wish not to vote for someone who has not had a chance to defend herself yet.

Not quite sure what to make of this. One could easily be a wolf - Cailin could be voicing suspicion but not voting so she could later point this out. For some reason I'm not entirely sure of, I don't trust Shelob.

Estelyn is playing her newbie role well and I believe she should be watched closely, not because I'm suspicious of her yet, but because I know from experience people tend to give newbies an easier time. I just noticed I'm most unwilling to lynch her and that cannot be healthy.

Not sure what to make of this. Esty seems more or less innocent to me. Cailin seems to be saying that it's worrying that she doesn't want to lynch Esty - why is that? Is Esty a wolf?

The greatest evidence I have to go on points to Mr U and Shelob. Why Shelob? I know that the two people she accused, namely Ang and I, are innocents. I can't help but feel suspicion. It is now a question of which one of the two I shall be voting for.

Originally Posted by Fea

I suspect TGWBS. He's not as... in depth as usual. It makes me wonder if he's maybe trying to play a slightly different game than he normally would. I had expected lists, theories, strategies, and psychoanalyzation. Day 1, I saw weredwarvery.

I'm being as in-depth as my booklore allows! I have given lists, theories and pseudopsychoanalyses (). There's little I can offer in the way of strategy.

[mormegil]

++Cailin

She seems most suspicious to me. I'll explain why. She's done enough to keep visible but not so much to stir the waters though she did give an unexpected vote for Eomer. Another thing for her and others is that she doesn't seem overly suspicious and on day one that seems to be the most likely wolf, if you follow me. What I am meaning is that on this day it's very easy for the wolves to avoid suspicion and therefore those who look most guilty are probably not and those who look fairly innocent could be the opposite. I know this doesn't make much sense in written form but in my muddled head it's rather clear.

That being said I found Formendacil's reaction to Boromir's vote rather interesting.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

I find this deeply insulting...

Mainly because I don't think that there's any reason to pick on me rather than anybody else. As for picking on LMP, I wasn't saying I was GOING to vote for him, but merely that, with a lack of any sort of evidence, I may as well pick on him for his offensive lifestyle...

Seemed to rustle his feathers a bit...or should I say fur. I really considered voting for him today though I possibly will do it tomorrow.

[Firefoot]

I am willing to accept Shelob's defense for being away. She's on my watchlist, but I'm not overly suspicious of her.

I'm giving Mr. Underhill the benefit of the doubt right now. What other people are saying about him being smarter than he's showing is definitely ringing a bell, and I wholly disagree with his statement that because he and Esty are new to the game then they are innocent. However, he doesn't seem lynch-worthy to me yet.

If Fea and LMP are both wolves, then they are bluffing mightily. I wouldn't put it past either of them - far from it - but I'm not convinced that both of them are wolves. One, quite possibly, but both, hm, I don't think so. And there's really not a lot of evidence to support either of them being wolves.

Formendacil still is not sitting right with me. Like Morm, I found his reaction to the vote for him quite odd - a bit of an overreaction, which is something I look for in wolves.

If Boromir is a wolf, he's playing a very bold game. He seems to be very flippant for being so close to the noose, which would be very good werewolf strategy, but I guess I'd expect a bit more of an edge to his posts. He's edging up on my watchlist, but I'm not ready to vote for him.

Cailin is behaving a little oddly. She hi-lites two suspects of hers in her post (myself and Esty), then pulls a blinder and votes for Eomer for "no reason." Um... right.

I just realized I didn't actually give any personal feelings about TGWBS in my analysis post. So here goes: He doesn't seem particularly suspicious, but I'd like to see something of substance from him. He really hasn't said a whole lot except to declare his innocent and to say that the people who hadn't said anything were irritating.

And I'm still suspicious of Ang - he seems to say a lot, but there's not a whole lot of substance to his posts. I really can't say I have an idea of what he thinks.

So revised list: Formendacil and Cailin, followed by Fea, LMP, Boromir, and Ang.

Edit: cross-posting with LMP

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

So, I'll probably be on again, but there's a possibility I won't and I'm going to vote for...

++Formendacil

I find this deeply insulting...

Mainly because I don't think that there's any reason to pick on me rather than anybody else. As for picking on LMP, I wasn't saying I was GOING to vote for him, but merely that, with a lack of any sort of evidence, I may as well pick on him for his offensive lifestyle...

However, what's done is done, and I am still no closer to finding a victim.