WWJ II: Welcome to Lower Tadfield. The Apocalypse has Now Begun.

[Kitanna]

Gurthang? Oh dear, must go back a read all he had said. In the meantime though. After the double lynching yesterday I went back to check out how everyone voted and this is what I came up with.

Wilwa- tar-ancalime
Holby- Glirdan
Sleepy Ranger- Glirdan (2)
Sotty- Tar-ancalime (2)
Me- Sleepy Ranger
Eonwe- Wilwa
Gurthang- Márcolië Lamen
Bergil- Marcolie Laman (2)
Wayne- Marcolie Laman (3)
Marcolie Laman- Glirdan (3)
Rune- Marcolie Laman (4)

I’m supposing since Wayne did not put his vote in the proper format it did not count.

So let’s see here. Sleepy, Bergil, and sotty all voted at a time that caused a tie. DEATH came in and broke the first round of ties with her vote for Glirdan, but then Rune came in later and retied the votes for DEATH and Glirdan, thus sealing their fates. Now what can we gather from this. At least one wolf is hiding among those that caused a tie.

Rune~ Voted late (only about ten minutes before day was about to end)

You have made me a bit suspisios of Glirdan and think less ill of DEATH.

Now here is a puzzle. “less suspicious of DEATH and more suspicious of Glirdan.” Now then why vote for DEATH when you could easily have prevented a double lynching.

Now here is a loose theory I have about Sleepy Ranger and sotty. They’re both wolves. They decided on night one that they would try to get a double lynching going by voting for two people who had already gotten a vote. Sleepy Ranger voted first and not long after sotty voted. They didn’t really vote early and they didn’t vote too late. So there was still time for someone to break the tie. That sort of puts a dent in my theory. So, this isn’t an incredibly good theory, but I think there is a possibility it could be true. Now this loose little theory can also work if Bergil is thrown into the mix. He too voted to make a tie…a three way tie. Though the chances of all three being wolves is slim. All wolves voting to make ties seems very bold to me on day one. But I will be watching all three very carefully from now on.

Onto Wayne. It appears his vote did not count. (unless there was a post I missed somewhere bringing Glirdan up to four votes) But judging by the time and who he voted for I am more inclined to find him innocent. Wayne voted at a time when DEATH, tar-ancalime, and Glirdan were all tied. He could easily have voted for Wilwa or Sleepy Ranger to bring it up to a four person tie. Though a four person tie would not have counted, but a tie is a tie in my book. Instead Wayne cast a vote for DEATH, bringing her out of the tie and into the lead. Now that not the best of grounds to find him innocent on, but I will move him lower on my list of suspects because of it. At least for today.

Yesterday I suspected these five people above everyone else: DEATH, Sleepy Ranger, Glirdan, Tar, and Gurthang

Three people out of that are now proven innocent. As for tar and Sleepy Ranger I will watch them both very carefully.

In order I suspect these people:
1)Rune
2)Sleepy Ranger and Sotty
3)And a distant third of Bergil

Tar-ancalime is far down on that list…at least for now. I also think there is a good chance our third wolf did not vote yesterday.

[THE Ka]

THE Ka: ???

I have an excuse, that I hope will bare with two witnesses...

This is my one and only valuable reason: I was asking both you and AOR about specific guildlines that I had not known about, so I could clear up anything when I was playing further on. In layman's terms, I'm as dumb as a doornail when it comes to this game and I wanted to at least avoid asking annoying questions every five minutes, and thus complicating the game. Plus, I thought I would have enough time to study the evidence, ponder it philosophically and delcare my vote after school activities. I was wrong, and forgot to count three hours ahead of mine own. Sorry for this absence, I have the rest of the week off so, I'll be able to contribute as best as I can.


-----------------

Okay, on to werewolf business. Let's see, our Gurthang died. I give my simpathy, but on to the evidence!

Post #16 he calls out tar on her plan of "refraining to accuse innocents". He encourages everyone to "let the accusations and defenses fly".

Post #22 calls out tar again on her jumpiness and flip-flopping. Suggests a possible Eonwe/Tar wolf strategy. Says though it is probably unlikely.

Quite a rigid Rationalist I see. Well, I shall have to play the Skeptic on this one, though I do not wish to travel down a Sophists' road with this. So, I won't look at too much evidence and try to stay clear of over-explanitory posts.

Post #47 Asks for reasons from Rune and Glirdan why they suspect who they do. Mentions Glirdan and Tar as suspects. Also mentions DEATH but not in an accussing way.

Post #61 votes for DEATH

Well, this leads to a contradiction due to the first post, but ideas can change... Unfortunately, this is not as believable coming from a rationalist. So, i'm not buying it. I'm agreeing to only half extent with Kitanna on this one. Either someone wants a frame, really badly with personal matters, or we have some rather elusive werewolves. Though, I do believe that the wolves might have not planned for one of theirs to not vote on an attack, the first night or second. The arguments are too juvenile in this stage, if Eonwe is a werewolf it would be rather foolish to be hot-headed and rid of a problematic player from the start. (Thus, from what that player and the 'werewolf' have said, it's a perfect frame as to who is a suspect.) Though, maybe I am over estimating all of this.

My vote is not definate until I can see more prespectives... Sorry, it's a 'big picture' thing. I don't want to leave everything out of my final, or somewhat final conclusion.


~ Ophelious Philosopher

Oh, this is making my mind spin like Kant!

[tar-ancalime]

Some more thoughts:

I agree with Kitanna's point about Rune's vote being worth discussing, but for a slightly different reason.

At the time Rune voted, it was not yet clear that WaynetheGoblin's vote for DEATH was not going to count. If we include his vote in the tally at the time of Rune's voting, there was already a majority for DEATH.

Therefore Rune, by voting for the person who's already got the most votes, is making a very safe move. He couldn't have known that there would be so many abstentions, so he would have had to consider that four others would be voting after him. Voting to create a tie (i.e. a wolf engineering a double lynching, as Kitanna implies) just shouldn't have worked. (Yes, even though Rune could have reasonably assumed that DEATH would vote as she did, the only way she could vote to possibly save herself--there still should have been several more votes coming.)

But voting for the person who's already got a majority, when there are still 4 voters presumably to come and "cover his tracks," is a "safe" move, an "unobtrusive" move, one which could point either to a wolf hiding in the crowd, or to an unsure villager not wanting to cast any new suspicions.

HOWEVER, as I noted above, Rune could have reasonably assumed that DEATH would vote for Glirdan as she did. Therefore, it would have been DEATH's vote that created the tie if WaynetheGoblin's vote had counted, and Rune's vote would have acted as a tiebreaker to lynch DEATH instead of Glirdan. Those two votes coming at the same instant as they did really does confuse the matter of who assumed what...

All this, which I hope isn't too tortuous, is to say that I think Rune's vote, coupled with his comment pointed out above by Kitanna (that he suspected Glirdan and possibly me more than DEATH), was interesting, important, and noteworthy.

This is NOT to say that I've got any real suspicions of Rune, though--my reasoning only works IF Rune thought Wayne's vote counted, IF Rune thought the abstainers were about to vote at the last minute, IF Rune assumed correctly that DEATH would vote for Glirdan, and IF I haven't made any logical errors.

Just throwing out ideas.

I will have to vote very early toDAY due to non-Tadfield constraints on my schedule, so I'm hoping to see some more discussion within the next few hours.

[tar-ancalime]

All right, I've got to take a deep breath and vote...on very little information.

The only thing I can even guess at is that, as I said before, a wolf abstained from voting yesterday. That means that either Hiriel or THE Ka is a suspect. Simply because Hiriel's post today made more sense to me than THE Ka's (which seemed to obscure things rather than clarify them), I'm tempted to vote for THE Ka.

But then again, who knows? I know that anything I do right now is very flimsy.

So...

++THE Ka

May Eru have mercy on my soul!

[Sleepy Ranger]

Oh my! It seems people are throwing suspicion my way. I'll try clearing some things up

Now my whole purpose of posting my list at the beginning was to see how people responded to a random accusation. I felt uneasy each time SR brought up thinking logically and not pointing the blame due to randomness. If we all sat around looking at opening posts and trying to find logic in them we'd be doomed. He says "We need to start somewhere..." but if we do not put some form of accusation out there (no matter how random) then we can't really start.

First of all you got the complete opposite meaning of my little 'logical thinking' rant. I am not against a bit of randomness but I said that starting from professions was ahem, stupid. What I did say was think things over before posting it, I did not say do not post I just said make sure you know what you're posting and if it makes any sense.

Not pointing out blame? Oh my, you seem to have mis-understood me. I said accuse would be a better word than blame and I said that we shouldn't randomly throw around blame...

As in- X- I bet Y is the wolf.[/b] (Thats what I'm against, I mean just saying it out. Sure if you suspect somebody but can't really put your finger on it then by all means go ahead and say I find this person suspicious but if you're going to go all out and BLAME somebody without any reason thats what I'm against.)

Moving on-

I find this to contradict itself. He says people are giving random posts for evidence that isn't there, but right away he says things today are going to be quite random. So then, why is there just a problem for random suspicions and evidence if that seems to be what day one is made of?

To me it seems you are just completely ignoring the whole fact that I made the post against accusing people because of their occupation NOT random ones...

And finally SR voted for Glirdan, for "reasons stated by other people", well which reasons? Which people? Perhaps SR is trying to start a bandwagong, seeing as there is already one vote for Glirdan.

I did not have time to put up reasons but I shall gladly do so now-

Glirdan - has been accused of trying to send Seer hints. Hinting so drastically this early is not a great idea. Wouldn't want a dead Seer on Night 2. Might be a masquerading wolf, might be the Seer, or we might be reading too much into things. Watch.

This post by Gurthy got me thinking.

Glirdan~ Because of his strange posts regarding Eonwe. Now there's a chance he is a very bold seer, but his hints toward it are very bold and very dangerous. He could be a wolf leading off his scent and trying to throw it elsewhere. (piggybacking on an innocent...) Or he really could have a strong gut feeling.

And as you yourself said Kitanna

And you obviously missed this part of my quote-

and because I really don't have a main suspect.

I did use a bit of randomness and now it seems strange to me, you keep telling people that I'm against randomness (Which I'm not. I'm against blaming with no reason and accusing because of occupation or some other moot detail) and then you condemn me for using a bit of randomness. This places Kitanna moderately high on my suspicions list but I don't think I'll vote for her, I want to see how things work out and perhaps do a bit of re-reading before I do make a choice.

As for band-waggoning, now thats just silly... I believe I was the third person to vote and how would 2 votes start a band-wagon? If I did want to get somebody band-waggoned I'd have stated reasons to prove their guilt rather than just going with what some others (you included) said. I needed to vote and at the time I felt Glirdan was a wolf.

Now here is a loose theory I have about Sleepy Ranger and sotty. They’re both wolves. They decided on night one that they would try to get a double lynching going by voting for two people who had already gotten a vote. Sleepy Ranger voted first and not long after sotty voted. They didn’t really vote early and they didn’t vote too late. So there was still time for someone to break the tie. That sort of puts a dent in my theory. So, this isn’t an incredibly good theory, but I think there is a possibility it could be true.

Mine was the third vote I believe so it was well before the others and how on earth would I know when Sotty or anybody else planned on voting?

Hopefully that clears somethings up. I'm a bit busy with athletics today so I won't have time to go through much but I believe there may be something to find in 3 pages of posts.

[Sleepy Ranger]

Sorry for the double-post but I didn't want to edit the one above.
tar's vote for THE Ka seems to have come out of the blue... I'd like to point Kitanna in tar's direction because she seems to dis-like people who vote for reasons others have stated. </sarcasm>

Ahem but seriously does anybody else find tar's vote disturbing? I mean it is rather early in the day and we don't really have much on Ka except for her not posting. I'll be keeping an eye on tar from now on.

I apologize if you find my comment offensive Kitanna. It serves no meaning except to perhaps give someone a laugh

[Eonwe]

i don't really find it taht weird, as of now. maybe it will chance as time moves on and the evidence mounts, if you kow waht i mean. Tar is certainly on the List, but quite a few people are, as far as im conserned.

just checking in, im be back on in like an hour or two...

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Sleepy Ranger

Mine was the third vote I believe so it was well before the others and how on earth would I know when Sotty or anybody else planned on voting?

If you are a wolf it would be easy for you and sotty to plan it out the night before. But still that theory of mine remains loose. I have other people to look after first before you and sotty.

Now to bring up what tar-ancalime said about Rune and his vote. At the time Rune voted DEATH had given a list of votes so far, excluding Wayne's. Now of course DEATH was not the mod, but also Wayne's vote could of course been overlooked. So assuming Rune was going off of DEATH's list then he would have seen the oppurtunity of bringing about a tie. Of course that is unlikey, but there is also the possibility of him realizing Wayne's vote would not be counted due to its format.

But voting for the person who's already got a majority, when there are still 4 voters presumably to come and "cover his tracks," is a "safe" move, an "unobtrusive" move, one which could point either to a wolf hiding in the crowd, or to an unsure villager not wanting to cast any new suspicions.

I had given little thought to that. If Rune took into account Wayne's vote then he could have seen it as a chance to hide because "he had helped put DEATH in the lead." I have a gut feeling about Rune and I hope to hear from him soon.

But also tar-ancalime, I find your vote for THE Ka odd...I do not see a huge problem with voting so early. Sometimes life just gets in the way. But the fact you would vote for Ka because of her "obscuring things" is unsettling. You too missed the vote yesterday for a miscalulation of time which is what happened to Ka. One way for me to look at your reasons is that you want to throw attention off yourself because you also did not vote and some still suspect you from yesterday. Or you are at a lose for who to vote for so you picked off the list of those who did not vote.

In the next hour or so I am going to have to cast a vote because I will be gone when day ends. So do not think ill of me because of that.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by tar-ancalime

All right, I've got to take a deep breath and vote...on very little information.

The only thing I can even guess at is that, as I said before, a wolf abstained from voting yesterday. That means that either Hiriel or THE Ka is a suspect. Simply because Hiriel's post today made more sense to me than THE Ka's (which seemed to obscure things rather than clarify them), I'm tempted to vote for THE Ka.

But then again, who knows? I know that anything I do right now is very flimsy.

So...

++THE Ka

May Eru have mercy on my soul!

No, may Berkelley have mercy on your soul...

I did not vote the other day because of time differences, and that i'm stupid. I live (obviously) in the Pacific Time Zone and I completely forgot to count three hours ahead. Instead, I was greeted by a thread saying, 'IT IS NOW NIGHT', so of course I could not vote. Another reason is that i'm stupid, and still did not grasp this game, thus I had to send messages to AbercrombieOfRohan asking about things such as votes, where do I vote, when do I vote, ect...

Yes, I was that mindless the otherday about this game.

Now, thankfully I do know how to play and am gathering facts for my final vote.

Sincerely,

~ Ka

P.S. If you are still quite confused, I would more than happy to send you originals of my messages, though I believe you may have to ask permission from AOR before doing so, since they were the other person in correspondence. Hope this helps.

[Eonwe]

let me see. there seems to be allot of people not doing allot of talking. taht would be weird, but people are prolly on different time zones. all the same, i don't like silence from anyone. becuse if you don't say anything, nothing can be held against you. perfect wolf stratagy, in my book. (nothing except not saying anything, that is )

ok my List breaks down as follows.

THE Ka: a wolf would be better prepared to vote, talk, expain, etc. and she gave some real life reasoning. if that stuffs not true, you are the base master of treachery. so im willing to let her off.

Tar-ancalime: seems a bit suspicious. kind of freaked out yesterday. but that happens to newcomers to werewolf infested villages. nothing really.

Wilwarin: i'd like to hear some more from you. but i don't know waht timezone you are, so you may have very good reasons for being silent for long periods of time. i guess silence is kind of relative, because im silent to you for long periods of time, possibley. anyway....

Sleepy Ranger: i don't konwwww. i hope he isn't a wolf. he hasn't given me any reason to think so, but all the same, i watching you....

Holbytlass: i'd like to hear more from you. but the same stuff as i said about wilwarin appies here, too.

Eonwe: the only one im sure of.

there seems to be allot taht we can gleen from the voting records. but not i, i must go to class...

[Holbytlass]

A bit redundent, but we all like to see things our own way. BTW, I was taught this by a lovely chap selling saucepans....

Wilwarin-->Tar-Ancalime (tar-1)
Holby-->Glirdan (tar-1, glir-1)
SleepyRanger-->Glirdan (tar-1, glir-2)
Sotty-->Tar-ancalime (tar-2, glir-2)
Kittanna-->Sleepy Ranger (tar-2, glir-2, sleep-1)
Eonwe-->Wilwarin (tar-2, glir-2, sleep-1, wil-1)
Gurthang-->Marcolie (tar-2, glir-2 sleep-1, wil-1, marc-1)
Bergil-->Marcolie (tar-2, glir-2, sleep-1, wil-1, marc-2)
Wayne-->Marcolie (doesn't count)
Marcolie-->Glirdan (tar-2, glir-3, sleep-1, wil-1, marc-2)
Rune-->Marcolie (tar-2, glir-3, sleep-1, wil-1, marc-3)

no vote: Glirdan, Tar-ancolime, Hiriel, The Ka


First to bandwagon on Glirdan (I do consider the second vote bandwaggoning, but not the most suspicious) is Sleepy Ranger, what makes it somewhat suspicious is he didn't speak of suspicions against Glirdan or anyone outright.
Marcolie did band on Glirdan, but that was to save herself and really it's a moot point cause she's dead.

First to bandwaggon on Tar is Sotty. He did voice suspicion against Tar so not that suspicios to me.

First to band on Marcolie is Bergil, never spoke of suspicions against her, only half-heartedly names three others. QUOTE: I don't suspect her in the least' but I must vote for someone'. What is the most interesting, with his vote, he made the 3 way tie. If it was so random, he could've broke the tie or voted for someone else. Bergil being a wolf, didn't care who got it. If this theory is true, then I would have to conclude that Tar-ancalime is an innocent.

Then there is Wayne: his vote that didn't count really befuddles everything that happened after. I shall give him the benefit of the doubt. Had it counted, he broke a tie that would send 2 people to their deaths, and I was confused with the voting rules, so I can't hold that against anybody else.

Third to band on Marcolie Rune: hard to really know, if he thought Wayne's counted, then broke a tie, if he knew wayne's didn't count then brought on the tie. But he did voice suspicon of Marcolie earlier.

All of this with the underestanding more votes to come, but some never did.



Suspect list:
Tar-ancalime
Hiriel
The Ka
for no votes, sorry that's automatic in my book, but not necessarily the most suspicious

Bergil
Sleepy Ranger
Rune
For reasons stated above, all can change it's still so early