WWJ II: Welcome to Lower Tadfield. The Apocalypse has Now Begun. - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

tar-ancalime · 10-20-2005, 01:18 AM

Some more thoughts:

I agree with Kitanna's point about Rune's vote being worth discussing, but for a slightly different reason.

At the time Rune voted, it was not yet clear that WaynetheGoblin's vote for DEATH was not going to count. If we include his vote in the tally at the time of Rune's voting, there was already a majority for DEATH.

Therefore Rune, by voting for the person who's already got the most votes, is making a very safe move. He couldn't have known that there would be so many abstentions, so he would have had to consider that four others would be voting after him. Voting to create a tie (i.e. a wolf engineering a double lynching, as Kitanna implies) just shouldn't have worked. (Yes, even though Rune could have reasonably assumed that DEATH would vote as she did, the only way she could vote to possibly save herself--there still should have been several more votes coming.)

But voting for the person who's already got a majority, when there are still 4 voters presumably to come and "cover his tracks," is a "safe" move, an "unobtrusive" move, one which could point either to a wolf hiding in the crowd, or to an unsure villager not wanting to cast any new suspicions.

HOWEVER, as I noted above, Rune could have reasonably assumed that DEATH would vote for Glirdan as she did. Therefore, it would have been DEATH's vote that created the tie if WaynetheGoblin's vote had counted, and Rune's vote would have acted as a tiebreaker to lynch DEATH instead of Glirdan. Those two votes coming at the same instant as they did really does confuse the matter of who assumed what...

All this, which I hope isn't too tortuous, is to say that I think Rune's vote, coupled with his comment pointed out above by Kitanna (that he suspected Glirdan and possibly me more than DEATH), was interesting, important, and noteworthy.

This is NOT to say that I've got any real suspicions of Rune, though--my reasoning only works IF Rune thought Wayne's vote counted, IF Rune thought the abstainers were about to vote at the last minute, IF Rune assumed correctly that DEATH would vote for Glirdan, and IF I haven't made any logical errors.

Just throwing out ideas.

I will have to vote very early toDAY due to non-Tadfield constraints on my schedule, so I'm hoping to see some more discussion within the next few hours.

10-20-2005, 01:18 AM	#18
tar-ancalime Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: abaft the beam Posts: 303	Some more thoughts: I agree with Kitanna's point about Rune's vote being worth discussing, but for a slightly different reason. At the time Rune voted, it was not yet clear that WaynetheGoblin's vote for DEATH was not going to count. If we include his vote in the tally at the time of Rune's voting, there was already a majority for DEATH. Therefore Rune, by voting for the person who's already got the most votes, is making a very safe move. He couldn't have known that there would be so many abstentions, so he would have had to consider that four others would be voting after him. Voting to create a tie (i.e. a wolf engineering a double lynching, as Kitanna implies) just shouldn't have worked. (Yes, even though Rune could have reasonably assumed that DEATH would vote as she did, the only way she could vote to possibly save herself--there still should have been several more votes coming.) But voting for the person who's already got a majority, when there are still 4 voters presumably to come and "cover his tracks," is a "safe" move, an "unobtrusive" move, one which could point either to a wolf hiding in the crowd, or to an unsure villager not wanting to cast any new suspicions. HOWEVER, as I noted above, Rune could have reasonably assumed that DEATH would vote for Glirdan as she did. Therefore, it would have been DEATH's vote that created the tie if WaynetheGoblin's vote had counted, and Rune's vote would have acted as a tiebreaker to lynch DEATH instead of Glirdan. Those two votes coming at the same instant as they did really does confuse the matter of who assumed what... All this, which I hope isn't too tortuous, is to say that I think Rune's vote, coupled with his comment pointed out above by Kitanna (that he suspected Glirdan and possibly me more than DEATH), was interesting, important, and noteworthy. This is NOT to say that I've got any real suspicions of Rune, though--my reasoning only works IF Rune thought Wayne's vote counted, IF Rune thought the abstainers were about to vote at the last minute, IF Rune assumed correctly that DEATH would vote for Glirdan, and IF I haven't made any logical errors. Just throwing out ideas. I will have to vote very early toDAY due to non-Tadfield constraints on my schedule, so I'm hoping to see some more discussion within the next few hours. __________________ Having fun wolfing it to the bitter end, I see, gaur-ancalime (lmp, ww13)